Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador Andrew Furey, right, joins Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to make an announcement in Rocky Harbour, Nfld., on Sept. 4Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
Dr. Lori Turnbull is a professor in the Faculty of Management at Dalhousie University.
Back in 2002, when he was leader of the Official Opposition, Stephen Harper decided to make himself persona non grata in Atlantic Canada. “There is a dependence in the region that breeds a culture of defeatism,” he infamously declared.
Atlantic Canada has long been known as a reliable bastion of support for the Liberal Party, which could be one reason why Mr. Harper – a conservative from the West – felt at liberty to trash-talk the place. But these days, Atlantic Canada is as fed up with the Liberals as Alberta is. A recent Angus Reid survey shows that only 21 per cent of Atlantic Canadians support the Liberals; in comparison, 43 per cent support the Conservatives. It’s just the latest poll showing deepening dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau’s government and a steady lead for Pierre Poilievre’s Tories; in August, a Leger poll found 19-per-cent support for the Liberals, a mere 8 per cent for the NDP, and a remarkable 55 per cent for Conservatives. If the pattern holds, the region seems poised for a blue wave in the next election.
But Atlantic Canada’s political reputation has always been somewhat overstated. It’s true that many voters in the area tend to throw their arms around new Liberal leaders and help them form their first governments. This was true for Jean Chrétien, whose Liberals won 30 of 31 seats when they won their first majority in 1993, and it was true for Justin Trudeau in 2015, when the party swept all 32 seats. But despite being less than vote-rich, Atlantic Canadians refuse to be taken for granted; their allegiance to the Liberals is not blind. After winning all of the seats in Nova Scotia in 1993, for example, the Liberals subsequently lost every single one of them in 1997 when cuts to programs and transfer payments were in full swing. The party risks a similar fate now.
Most, if not all, of the reasons for the Liberals’ collapse in Atlantic Canada are not unique to the region: frustrations with the cost of living, the housing crisis, and Mr. Trudeau himself, combined with a healthy dose of voter fatigue with a nearly decade-old government resonate across the country. The carbon tax has often been singled out as a particular sticking point here owing to a heavier reliance on oil to heat homes, but when the Liberals tried to fix that with a temporary exemption for home-heating oil, that seems to have somehow made people even more angry. All four Premiers in the region – even Andrew Furey, the lone Liberal – have asked Mr. Trudeau to stop the tax.
The Liberals’ responses to the affordability crisis, such as $10-a-day child care, have helped some families in the region, but only those who can get access to a space. A recent report has revealed that while Nova Scotia has seen a 15-per-cent increase in regulated full-day child care spaces since 2023, Prince Edward Island has seen an increase of only 0.3 per cent, while Newfoundland and Labrador has seen an increase of 1.5 per cent. Given these numbers, people in the region could be forgiven for seeing it as a failed program.
Further, the area’s many university towns have been struggling to manage the student housing crisis. Atlantic Canadians pride themselves on their warmth and hospitality; it has been devastating for the federal government to be inviting more people than can be comfortably housed and supported here. Overall population in the area has surged because of immigration, too, and while this is an exciting prospect for many reasons, including economic growth and a better, more inclusive way of life, there is a real fear about the implications of population growth during a housing shortage.
The significant shifts in support toward the Conservatives cannot entirely be attributed to Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals’ failures. With a straightforward mantra – “Axe the tax. Build the homes. Fix the budget. Stop the crime.” – Mr. Poilievre’s message is one of hope, even if it’s not exactly uplifting. (At least his words and attitude sit in stark contrast to those of his former boss, Mr. Harper.)
Mr. Poilievre’s style of speaking directly to voters about the problems that they face resonates with Atlantic Canada’s no-nonsense political culture. And, as has been evidenced by the successful political careers of John Crosbie, Peter MacKay, and others, Atlantic Canada has a strong history of Red Toryism. Though he’s no Red Tory, Mr. Poilievre stands to benefit if he uses this basis of common conservative ground to build support for his party.