Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leaves a the Liberal caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C., on Sept. 11.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington and, the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
Will there be another political orange crush? Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh sure hopes so.
In 2011, the New Democratic Party of Canada, led by Jack Layton, became the Official Opposition in the House of Commons in a stunning orange surge. The historic win coincided with a Conservative victory and a Liberal collapse.
Last week, when he pulled the plug on the Liberal-NDP parliamentary arrangement, Mr. Singh mapped out his vision for the next federal election as a showdown between the Conservatives and the New Democrats.
It’s possible, but there are a few hurdles in the way.
First and foremost is the NDP’s former parliamentary partner. Before a Conservative-NDP showdown materializes, the New Democrats have to deal with the Liberals. A look at the latest Nanos weekly tracking suggests that the Conservatives have a commanding lead over the Liberals and even a bigger advantage over the NDP. Almost twice as many Canadians prefer the Conservatives over the New Democrats.
Ending the Liberal-NDP arrangement accelerates a possible election and shortens the runway for the Liberals to change leaders. This two-for-one strategy for the NDP ensures that there is some distance between the partnership and the vote. One can’t be parliamentary partners one day and election enemies the next and expect to have credibility with voters. The timing also suggests that the New Democrats would prefer to face Justin Trudeau rather than a potential new leader. In that respect, the NDP and the Conservatives likely agree on who they would like to face in a federal election: Justin Trudeau.
Even with Liberal fatigue, Mr. Trudeau should not be underestimated as a campaigner. With a polling trend that has favoured the Conservatives for more than a year, Mr. Trudeau’s best hope is to campaign well and pray Pierre Poilievre makes a major blunder. For the NDP to surpass the Liberals, Mr. Singh has to first look like a different and more credible alternative to the Conservatives than the Liberals.
The second big hurdle is the Liberal-NDP confidence-and-supply agreement itself. Even though Mr. Singh has touted what he has delivered to Canadians, such as dental and some pharmacare, the reality is that there has been no political dividend for the NDP. Over the course of the parliamentary arrangement, support for the NDP and impressions of Mr. Singh have been consistent with no material gains. Any political payoff for those measures is shared by the Liberals and the NDP.
Considering that both progressive parties seriously trail the Conservatives, running an election on what their partnership delivered is not a winning strategy. Voters take whatever is given by politicians, whether it be extra child-care support, dental care or pharmacare, but votes do not automatically follow.
Running a platform-heavy campaign in a change election is a recipe for defeat. It’s like the unpopular kid in school thinking if they give one reason to be liked, people will miraculously change their views. The kicker for the New Democrats is that they tied their political fortunes to a Liberal Party that has been in power for almost a decade, led by a leader who is currently very unpopular.
There are only so many options for voters. The most likely view is that the Liberals have been in power for too long and the Conservatives are the agents of change. Some voters may feel that even though the Liberals are a tired government, the Conservatives may be risky change. Mr. Singh must hope that enough voters feel Mr. Poilievre is risky, Mr. Trudeau is tired and that a strong NDP showing will be good for parliament and for Canadians.
For Mr. Poilievre to win, he needs to simply not make a mistake and ride a blue wave to victory. Mr. Trudeau needs to campaign effectively and for Mr. Poilievre to make a big blunder. Mr. Singh needs both Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Poilievre to stumble. In effect, for a Conservative-NDP showdown to materialize, Mr. Singh needs everything to go wrong for his opponents and everything to go right for him. It’s possible, but it’s less likely than the first two scenarios.
There is some good news for all the federal party leaders: They are competing against each other and not against perfection. This particular view served former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper quite well. An important part of his electoral success was grounded in the idea that you did not need to be popular to win; you only needed to be comparatively better than your opponents.
Voters in democracies are always faced with a series of imperfect choices, with some of those imperfections being more repugnant than others. In this world, for Jagmeet Singh to realize his objective of a showdown with Pierre Poilievre, he only needs to not be Justin Trudeau – and to be a little better than him on the campaign trail.
If that happens, Mr. Singh’s wish for another orange crush could come true.