Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is 14 percentage points ahead of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the most recent Nanos poll numbers for preferred prime minister.Blair Gable/Reuters
Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, and the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
Is Canada broken? Maybe.
A new tracking study by Nanos that rates the satisfaction people have with the country and our institutions points to a clear negative trajectory of opinion, with very few bright spots.
This coupled with the latest ballot tracking sets the table for what will be a very tough year for elected officials of all stripes. Canadians will be holding incumbent governments to account. At the same time opposition parties will need to present solutions for a brighter future. We are headed for a collision between the electorate and the elected.
Satisfaction with Canada
Satisfied
Neutral
Unsatisfied
Unsure
2021
74%
15
10
2022
67
18
15
2023
64
21
15
2024
52
26
21
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100 because of rounding.
Satisfaction with Canada
Satisfied
Neutral
Unsatisfied
Unsure
2021
74%
15
10
2022
67
18
15
2023
64
21
15
2024
52
26
21
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100 because of rounding.
Satisfaction with Canada
Satisfied
Neutral
Unsatisfied
Unsure
2021
74%
15
10
2022
67
18
15
2023
64
21
15
2024
52
26
21
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100 because of rounding.
Imagine getting a grade of D on a test in school. Not great, right? That is where people currently score their satisfaction with Canada. We have hit a new low of 5.9 on a 10-point scale – down from 7.2 in 2021. To make matters worse, the score drops to 5.3 for those under the age of 35. Over all, only 52 per cent of Canadians say they are satisfied with Canada as a country – down from 74 per cent in 2021 – while 21 per cent say they are unsatisfied, a figure that has more than doubled since 2021.
Canadians are not quite at the point of giving the country a failing grade, but if the trajectory continues there will be a political reckoning.
It’s not all doom and gloom. Nationally about one in three (33 per cent) Canadians (and 43 per cent of Canadians over the age of 55) give a rating of eight, nine or 10 out of 10 (equivalent of an A in school).
Institutions that contribute to
making Canada a better country
(mean rates out of 10)
2021
2022
2023
2024
8
7.9
7.3
7.3
7.1
7.1
7
6.7
Universities
and colleges
Health care system
7.4
7.1
6.6
6.5
6.7
6.5
6.5
6.2
Charities
Supreme Court
7.1
6.9
6.5
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.3
Canadian Armed Forces
Arts and cultural
organizations
6.3
6.2
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.6
House of Commons
The RCMP
5.7
5.5
5.2
4.9
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.6
Prime Minister
Senate
7.2
6.8
6.6
5.9
3.6
3.3
3.2
2.9
Governor General
Satisfaction with
Canada as a country
MURAT YÜKSELIR / THE GLOBE AND MAIL,
SOURCE: NANOS RESEARCH
Institutions that contribute to
making Canada a better country
(mean rates out of 10)
2021
2022
2023
2024
8
7.9
7.3
7.3
7.1
7.1
7
6.7
Universities
and colleges
Health care system
7.4
7.1
6.6
6.5
6.7
6.5
6.5
6.2
Charities
Supreme Court
7.1
6.9
6.5
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.3
Canadian Armed Forces
Arts and cultural
organizations
6.3
6.2
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.6
House of Commons
The RCMP
5.7
5.5
5.2
4.9
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.6
Prime Minister
Senate
7.2
6.8
6.6
5.9
3.6
3.3
3.2
2.9
Governor General
Satisfaction with
Canada as a country
MURAT YÜKSELIR / THE GLOBE AND MAIL,
SOURCE: NANOS RESEARCH
Institutions that contribute to making Canada a better country
(mean rates out of 10)
2021
2022
2023
2024
8
7.9
7.4
7.3
7.3
7.1
7.1
7.1
7
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.7
6.5
6.5
6.2
Universities and colleges
Health care system
Charities
Supreme Court
7.1
6.9
6.5
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.2
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.6
House of Commons
Canadian Armed Forces
Arts and cultural
organizations
The RCMP
7.2
6.8
6.6
5.9
5.7
5.5
5.2
4.9
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.6
3.6
3.3
3.2
2.9
Prime Minister
Senate
Governor General
Satisfaction with
Canada as a country
MURAT YÜKSELIR / THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: NANOS RESEARCH
When it comes to Canadian institutions, most are on a negative trajectory as well.
Although our universities and colleges top the list in terms of their positive impact on the country, even they have seen a decline – from 7.9 out of 10 in 2021 to 7.1 currently. The steepest drop concerns the health care system. Back in 2021 it scored an 8.0 out of 10. Three years later it’s only 6.7. Even the venerable Supreme Court of Canada has slid in terms of the perceptions it contributes to making Canada a better country – from 7.4 out of 10 in 2021 to 6.6 in 2024.
Some institutions have held their ground over the past four years including the Canadian Armed Forces, Royal Canadian Mounted Police and the Senate. While some were not exceptionally strong to start, they have not registered dramatic declines. Of the 11 institutions tracked, only one has registered a year-over-year improvement: Canada’s Prime Minister. Back in 2021 the rating was 5.7, then dropped to 4.9 in 2023 and is now 5.5 out of 10.
The key takeaway is that when citizens look at our institutions, they are increasingly skeptical that they contribute to Canada being a better place.
Within that context, it should come as no surprise that since last summer, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have opened and maintained a comfortable lead over the Liberals according to Nanos tracking. With the Conservatives at 40-per-cent support, the Liberals at 25 per cent and the NDP at 21 per cent, Mr. Poilievre is poised to win a majority government when an election is called.
The preferred prime minister numbers are not much better for the Liberals. Justin Trudeau trails Mr. Poilievre by 14 percentage points. Usually, incumbent prime ministers enjoy an advantage merely by sitting in the PM’s chair – not so for Mr. Trudeau.
As Canadians struggle to pay for housing and groceries, their sights are firmly focused on the Liberals. After all, if one is struggling to pay for housing and groceries, do you really have much to lose by voting for the opposition?
For now, those Canadians have put Mr. Poilievre in the political driver’s seat. As the Conservatives look like a potential government-in-waiting, Canadians deserve details on his vision and what his plan is to make Canada a better place. His failure on that front will put him on the political hot seat.
Could the Liberals turn things around? Yes. It has happened before. But a turnaround is more the exception than the rule. You need to run a near-perfect campaign and hope your opponents stumble at the same time – no easy feat for the Liberals. It is not enough for the Liberals to smear their opponents, they need to articulate why Canadians should give them another mandate.
The good news for the Conservatives is that they enjoy a significant advantage over the Liberals. The bad news for the Conservatives is that the election is not today.