If Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leads the Liberals into a fourth election under his leadership, Nanos polling suggests that victory could be challenging.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, and the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
Stay or go. That’s the decision that many prime ministers fumble.
Overstay your political welcome and you risk getting spanked by the electorate and branded a loser. Leaving early might help preserve your legacy, but what if you haven’t accomplished everything you set out to do?
This is the choice facing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
If he steps away now he’ll be remembered, in part, as a three-time winner who navigated Canada through the tumultuous Trump administration and an unprecedented global pandemic. He also staked out a very progressive vision for Canada both at home and abroad.
On the other hand, if he decides to run in another election, he risks damaging not only his personal brand but becoming the political lightning rod for an electorate that is anxious economically and worried about the future.
Pursuing a progressive agenda focused on diversity, equity and inclusion while people struggle to pay for housing and groceries is a political disconnect. Like in Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, people tend not to focus on higher-level issues, such as building a future “just society,” if today they cannot pay for food and shelter.
In a recent Globe and Mail survey by Nanos, when asked about how the Liberals could best improve their chances in the next election, only 3 per cent, or less than one in 20, thought keeping Mr. Trudeau as Leader was the best choice. And only 6 per cent believed the Liberals should continue with the policies they have had over the past few years.
The status quo of a Trudeau-led party continuing the same policies is simply a non-starter for nine of 10 Canadians. Considering the Liberals are tracking in the 20s in popular support, the findings suggest that many committed Liberals do not want the status quo.
So what do Canadians want? The most popular answers were choosing a new leader (39 per cent) and focusing more on economic issues (25 per cent). Twenty per cent said there is nothing the Liberals can do to increase their chances of winning the next election.
Ways for Liberals to increase chances
of winning next election
Have someone other than Justin Trudeau
lead the party in the next election
Focus more on economic issues
Nothing will increase their chances of
winning the next election
Continue with the current policy priorities
they have had over the past few years
Have just Trudeau lead the party in the
next election
Unsure
40
33%
33
24
20
17
8
8
7
5
3
2
Atlantic
Quebec
43
36
26
24
21
20
8
5
5
5
4
3
Ontario
Prairies
43
25
18
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100 because of rounding.
9
5
1
B.C.
Ways for Liberals to increase chances
of winning next election
Have someone other than Justin Trudeau lead
the party in the next election
Focus more on economic issues
Nothing will increase their chances of winning
the next election
Continue with the current policy priorities they have
had over the past few years
Have just Trudeau lead the party in the next election
Unsure
40
33%
33
24
20
17
8
8
7
5
3
2
Atlantic
Quebec
43
36
26
24
21
20
8
5
5
5
4
3
Ontario
Prairies
43
25
18
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100 because of rounding.
9
5
1
B.C.
Ways for Liberals to increase chances of winning next election
Have someone other than Justin Trudeau lead the party in the next election
Focus more on economic issues
Nothing will increase their chances of winning the next election
Continue with the current policy priorities they have had over the past few years
Have just Trudeau lead the party in the next election
Unsure
B.C.
33%
33
17
7
3
8
Prairies
40
20
24
5
2
8
Ontario
43
24
20
5
3
5
36
26
21
8
4
5
Quebec
43
25
18
9
1
5
Atlantic
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100 because of rounding.
What is your most important
national issue of concern?
Feb. 2
March 1
14.8
14.6%
13.4
13
12.3
11.5
9.2
9
Inflation
Jobs/economy
Housing
Health care
8.4
7.2
3.9
3.4
3.1
3.1
2.6
1.6
Immigration
Debt/deficit
High taxes
Environment
3.4
2.9
2.9
1.9
Homeless
Change the gov’t
What is your most important
national issue of concern?
Feb. 2
March 1
14.8
14.6%
13.4
13
12.3
11.5
9.2
9
Inflation
Jobs/economy
Housing
Health care
8.4
7.2
3.9
3.4
3.1
3.1
2.6
1.6
Immigration
Debt/deficit
High taxes
Environment
3.4
2.9
2.9
1.9
Homeless
Change the gov’t
What is your most important national issue of concern?
Feb. 2
March 1
14.8
14.6%
13.4
13
12.3
11.5
9.2
9
8.4
7.2
Inflation
Jobs/economy
Housing
Health care
Environment
3.9
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.6
1.9
1.6
Immigration
Debt/deficit
High taxes
Homeless
Change the gov’t
For Mr. Trudeau to remain competitive, he needs to focus on economic issues and frame those priorities as the next phase of a Liberal mandate. Running with the same leader with the same policy priorities is a likely recipe for a Liberal defeat. The Liberals will have to pray that some yet-unknown cataclysmic revelation or mistake from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre occurs.
If Mr. Trudeau does run again, the next election will be a tough one for him. Currently, only 34 per cent of Canadians believe he has the qualities of a good leader – a number that has dropped from a high of 74 per cent back in the summer of 2016.
The proportion of Canadians who feel he possesses the qualities of a good leader is lower today than when he was on the receiving end of Conservative attack ads in 2015, asserting he was not up to the job; it was 44 per cent in the summer before he was elected Prime Minister.
The percentage of Canadians who would consider voting Liberal is hitting new lows. Back in the summer of 2015, before the election, about 45 per cent of Canadians were open to voting Liberal. Currently, about 37 per cent of Canadians would consider voting Liberal compared with 48 per cent who would consider voting Conservative.
Support for the Liberals has been on a downward trajectory since the summer of 2021, slumping from the high 30s to the low 20s.
There is some hope for the Liberals. In 1988, then-prime minister Brian Mulroney was trailing Liberal leader John Turner in the polls, but went on to win the election. Similar turnarounds happened in Ontario when premiers Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne turned what looked like imminent defeats in 2011 and 2014 into victories. The same was true for Progressive Conservative Tim Houston, who significantly trailed his Liberal opponent and went on to win the Nova Scotia election in 2021.
However, those were the exceptions. Most of the time, the party trailing behind going into the election faces defeat.
The motivation for Mr. Trudeau to stay must be strong. Few prime ministers relish leaving the centre of power and he has an opponent in Pierre Poilievre, who in many ways, is his antithesis. But he should remember what happened in 2015, when Stephen Harper stayed on to face an opponent he openly did not take seriously and who had a completely different vision for the country. The Conservatives have been out of power ever since.
For Mr. Trudeau to form a government in four successive elections would put him in a category with Canada’s first prime minister, Sir John A. Macdonald, and the first “sunny ways” PM, Sir Wilfrid Laurier.
Possible? Yes.
Likely? The polls today suggest otherwise.