Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, and the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
Polling juggernaut.
Those two words very aptly describe the Conservatives in the public opinion data. Since last August, the Pierre Poilievre-led party has enjoyed a consistent double-digit lead over Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.
For some, the election outcome is a foregone conclusion and the Conservatives should be measuring the curtains in the Prime Minister’s Office.
But digging into the numbers reveals some fundamental truths that should give pause to anyone hoping to predict the future with any sort of certainty.
The surface numbers on both ballot tracking and whom Canadians would prefer as prime minister markedly favour the Conservatives and Mr. Poilievre. In the Nanos tracking they lead in every region west of Quebec, and even in Quebec the party has support at levels in the 20s. The Conservatives lead among men and in every age demographic except for Canadians over 60. (Ballot support for the Liberals is mainly found in Quebec, Atlantic Canada and among senior citizens.)
When it comes to question of preferred prime minister, the responses generally track with the ballot numbers, with Mr. Poilievre maintaining a persistent double-digit advantage over Mr. Trudeau.
The numbers look extremely promising for the Conservatives and show an electorate bent on change.
The data lurking below the surface should give everyone pause.
Among the most striking recent data points has to do with the perceived credibility of the two front-runners. You would think that with a double-digit lead in the ballot and preferred prime minister tracking, Mr. Poilievre would tower over Mr. Trudeau on credibility.
Not so much.
A Globe and Mail survey conducted by Nanos showed both leaders with failing credibility scores (3.7 out of 10 for Mr. Trudeau and 3.9 for Mr. Poilievre). On the credibility front, neither have a clear advantage.
Every week Nanos asks Canadians whether the federal leaders possess the qualities of a good political leader. Forty-three per cent believe Mr. Trudeau has such qualities, 48 per cent say he does not, and 9 per cent are unsure. Forty-two per cent of Canadians believe Mr. Poilievre has the qualities of a good political leader, 44 per cent disagree and another 14 per cent are unsure.(As far as whether the other federal leaders possess the qualities of a good political leader, the Bloc Québécois’s Yves-François Blanchet is at 46 per cent, the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh is at 44 per cent, the Green Party’s Elizabeth May is at 33 per cent, and People’s Party of Canada’s Maxime Bernier is at 13 per cent.)
The numbers beneath the ballot tracking are not much better for either of the main parties. Although the Conservatives enjoy a comfortable advantage in vote intentions, their pool of accessible voters – that is, the proportion of Canadians who are open to voting Conservative – is not much larger (45 per cent) than the group of voters accessible to the Liberals (43 per cent).
There are several key takeaways.
First, neither Mr. Trudeau nor Mr. Poilievre is truly popular in the traditional sense. The reality is that the leader who is seen as being the least risky will likely prevail. Former prime minister Stephen Harper won three elections without a very warm embrace from voters, but because of a calculated judgment on election day that he was a comparatively better choice than Paul Martin, Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff.
Second, both parties have a base of accessible voters that is comparable – roughly four in 10 voters. This is consistent with the historical average of Canadians open to voting Conservative but is lower than the Liberals’ historical average. The big-tent party of the Liberals of the past is now smaller under Mr. Trudeau.
Third, the polling suggests that the Liberals’ biggest challenge is not Mr. Poilievre or the Conservatives but fighting a general mood of it being time for a change. Mr. Poilievre has credibility numbers equally dismal as Mr. Trudeau. The Conservative Leader can coast to victory by avoiding mistakes and letting the Liberals defeat themselves. In this scenario the election is a referendum on Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals, with voters casting judgment on the Liberal record and the performance of the Liberal Leader.
Finally, when people say the only poll that counts is the one on election day, they are correct. Polling in between elections helps us understand the mood and the possible dynamic of vote intentions. The Conservatives most definitely have the advantage today in the ballot numbers but that is in the context of an imaginary election with no immediate political consequence.
The one thing we do know is that the next election will be about change.
American baseball legend Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” In politics, campaigns matter, and the winner of the federal election will be the leader who best captures the change that Canadians want.