Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks at the ASEAN-Canada summit at the ASEAN Summit in Vientiane, Laos, on Oct. 10.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington and the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
Justin Trudeau led the federal Liberals out of the political wilderness. Now they run the risk of returning there.
Things were bleak for the Liberal Party of Canada in 2013. Despite having governed for a significant part of the 20th century, it was reeling from successive defeats at the hands of the Conservatives while at the same time trying to hold off an insurgent New Democrat Party led by Jack Layton and then Tom Mulcair.
When Mr. Trudeau stepped in the Liberal leadership ring, he was seen as the saviour of a party on the ropes. He soon remade the party into a movement in his own image, opening up membership, winning the leadership and then winning a majority mandate against the incumbent Conservative Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, who had governed since 2006. It’s clear that 2015 was a “change” election.
The mood for change was strong, and Canadians opted for a progressive choice and a different style of politics, giving the Liberals the political licence to advance its agenda.
Fast forward a decade and now support for the Liberals has dropped in half – from the mid-40s to the 20s. Mr. Trudeau has taken what was traditionally a big tent party and fashioned it into a narrower movement.
Now the Liberals are likely to be on the receiving end of a change election.
The Liberals desperately need NDP voters to abandon their leader, Jagmeet Singh, and to strategically vote Liberal. The reverse is also true. Mr. Singh needs to get Liberals to abandon Mr. Trudeau and vote NDP. With this in mind, expect the personal interactions between the Liberals and the NDP to be sharp and the policy differences mushy as the battle shapes up to decide who will be the choice for progressive voters.
With a massive ballot advantage over his opponents, and the Liberals/NDP split, it is a dream scenario for the Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives. He gets to ride a wave of change and benefit from progressive vote splitting.
The mood for change is significant. Feelings toward the government in Ottawa are dominated by emotions like pessimism (33 per cent) and anger (29 per cent) rather than satisfaction (13 per cent) and optimism (8 per cent).
Weekly tracking on issues of concern show that Canadians are firmly focused on inflation and the rising cost of housing. Issues like health care, the environment and reconciliation have taken a back seat to a focus on paying for the groceries this week and paying for housing this month. When a considerable proportion of Canadians are struggling, one should not be surprised that they likely feel they have nothing to lose with a change in government. Young voters, once a bedrock of the Trudeau coalition in 2015, have deserted Liberals for both the Conservatives and the New Democrats.
The ironic twist is that the Liberals seem to have the same blind spot as the Harper Conservatives did at the end of their mandate. Neither can envision losing an election to their opponent.
For Mr. Harper, losing to Mr. Trudeau, an untested young challenger, likely felt inconceivable.
For Mr. Trudeau, losing to Mr. Poilievre clashes with Mr. Trudeau’s personal vision of what he believes Canada stands for and is likely inconceivable to him.
The reality is that both challengers were propelled by a desire for change. After all, 2015 was more a rejection of Mr. Harper than an embrace of Mr. Trudeau’s “sunny ways.”
The next federal election may also be more about rejecting Mr. Trudeau than an embrace of Mr. Poilievre.
Among the more striking data points is the fact that even though Mr. Poilievre has an advantage in ballot support and as preferred PM, his credibility scores are only marginally better than Mr. Trudeau. (Mr. Poilievre’s credibility rating is 3.9 out of 10, Mr. Trudeau’s credibility rating is 3.7 out of 10). This should be sobering news for both leaders.
One lesson I’ve learned over 35 years of crunching political sentiment is that most winners think they are popular, and they believe Canadians agree with their platform. This could not be further from the truth in most elections. The reality is that voters are faced with imperfect choices. They gauge the risk of different options, and many times vote against, rather than for, a politician.
When we ask Canadians to place themselves on the ideological spectrum many are pragmatic and centrist. In fact, when the Harper Conservatives and the Trudeau Liberals governed, Canada was not more right or left wing. The nation just happened to have right- and left-wing governments in power. Our parties and social media are more polarized than average Canadians who are more focused on getting the kids to hockey practice and paying the bills.
For Pierre Poilievre, he should not consider his current advantage an endorsement of his views or his leadership. He is riding a wave of change directed at Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals.
Justin Trudeau and the Liberals need to recognize the real forces amassed against him. These forces of change are more powerful than any support for Mr. Poilievre, who is just surfing a political wave.
The Liberals rode a wave of change to victory in 2015. Now they are slamming against those same forces.