A mother and daughter embrace at an Oct. 28 vigil in Ottawa, where members of the Jewish community showed support for the dozens of Israelis held hostage by Hamas.DAVE CHAN/AFP via Getty Images
Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, and the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
The war between Israel and Hamas is a major issue in Canada. The conflict has created tension across the country that is being felt in our communities. Politicians are feeling the pressure to say the “right” thing – and the right thing depends on how you feel about the war.
Canadians are worried. A new survey for CTV News by Nanos shows that seven in 10 Canadians are concerned (39 per cent) or somewhat concerned (30 per cent) that there will be an increase in hate-motivated incidents in our communities resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. Different generations of respondents are of one mind and consistent in their worry.
Not many Canadians believe that the conflict will be contained. Almost nine in 10 people are concerned (55 per cent) or somewhat concerned (32 per cent) that the conflict will spread to other Middle Eastern countries. A significant number are concerned (42 per cent) or somewhat concerned (36 per cent) that the conflict will spread outside of the Middle East. Of note: Canadians over 55 years of age are noticeably more likely to be concerned about an expansion of the conflict compared with individuals under 35 years of age.
CONCERNS ABOUT THE CONFLICT...
Unsure
Concerned
Somewhat concerned
Not concerned
Somewhat not concerned
...spreading to other Middle Eastern countries
55%
32
1
6
6
...spreading outside of the Middle East
42%
36
1
11
9
...leading to an increase of hate motived
incidents in your community
39%
30
2
13
16
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100 because of rounding.
CONCERNS ABOUT THE CONFLICT...
Unsure
Concerned
Somewhat concerned
Not concerned
Somewhat not concerned
...spreading to other Middle Eastern countries
55%
32
1
6
6
...spreading outside of the Middle East
42%
36
1
11
9
...leading to an increase of hate motived
incidents in your community
39%
30
2
13
16
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100 because of rounding.
CONCERNS ABOUT THE CONFLICT...
Unsure
Not concerned
Concerned
Somewhat concerned
Somewhat not concerned
...spreading to other Middle Eastern countries
55%
32
1
6
6
...spreading outside of the Middle East
42%
36
1
11
9
...leading to an increase of hate motived incidents in your community
39%
30
2
13
16
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100 because of rounding.
What should Canada do in response? A survey conducted by Nanos for The Globe and Mail shows that six in 10 people (59 per cent) say the Liberal government should provide humanitarian aid to the region; 16 per cent believe Canadian troops should participate in a potential peacekeeping mission in the future; and 8 per cent say the country should accept refugees. The rest say doing nothing is the best course of action (13 per cent), or they are unsure what should be done.
ON CANADA’S ROLE
Support for potential actions by the Canadian
government as a response to the conflict
Provide
humanitarian aid
59%
Participate in
peacekeeping
16
Accept refugees
from the region
8
13
Do nothing
5
Unsure
ON CANADA’S ROLE
Support for potential actions by the Canadian
government as a response to the conflict
Provide
humanitarian aid
59%
Participate in
peacekeeping
16
Accept refugees
from the region
8
13
Do nothing
5
Unsure
ON CANADA’S ROLE
Support for potential actions by the Canadian government as a response to the conflict
Provide humanitarian aid
59%
Participate in peacekeeping
16
Accept refugees from the region
8
Do nothing
13
Unsure
5
On Israel’s use of military force to remove Hamas from Gaza a majority of Canadians either believe it is justified (30 per cent) or somewhat justified (27 per cent) compared with those that do not believe the action was justified (18 per cent not justified, 12 per cent somewhat not justified). There is, however, a major generational division. People over 35 years of age believe that Israel is justified in using force against Hamas while Canadians under 35 years of age oppose the Israeli use of force (46 per cent not justified/somewhat not justified, while 38 per cent justified/somewhat justified).
When it comes to the question of a possible two-state solution, opinions are not firm. Although the slimmest of majorities think it is a very good (27 per cent) or good time (24 per cent) to negotiate a two-state solution that gives Palestinians their own state, differences of opinion are more likely to occur based on region rather than age. Quebeckers were the most likely to think it was a good time for a two-state solution (60 per cent); those living in Atlantic Canada the least (38 per cent).
ON WAR AND PEACE
Canadians who say Israel’s use of its military force is “justified” or “somewhat justified”
By age group
70
56
38%
18 to 34
35 to 54
55 or older
Canadians who say it’s a “good” or “very good” time to negotiate a two-state solution
By region
60
52
49%
43
38
B.C.
Prairies
Ontario
Quebec
Atlantic
ON WAR AND PEACE
Canadians who say Israel’s use of its military force is “justified” or “somewhat justified”
By age group
70
56
38%
18 to 34
35 to 54
55 or older
Canadians who say it’s a “good” or “very good” time to negotiate a two-state solution
By region
60
52
49%
43
38
B.C.
Prairies
Ontario
Quebec
Atlantic
ON WAR AND PEACE
Canadians who say Israel’s use of its military force is “justified” or “somewhat justified”
By age group
Canadians who say it’s a “good” or “very good” time to negotiate a two-state solution
By region
70
60
56
52
49%
43
38%
38
18 to 34
35 to 54
55 or older
B.C.
Prairies
Ontario
Quebec
Atlantic
As casualties continue to mount in the war, we should expect a rough ride on a number of fronts. We should also clearly understand what Canada can and cannot do.
First, a peaceful solution in the Middle East has been elusive for generations and Canada is neither a superpower nor a key player to lead on that front. At best, we can support a local solution agreed to between Israel, the Palestinians and other key Middle Eastern powers if that ever comes to be.
Second, Canadians are much more likely to support providing humanitarian aid over peacekeeping or accepting refugees from the region.
Third, we should not underestimate the impact of how we respond to managing the conflict at home. If the authorities do not charge and prosecute those responsible for violent hate crimes or incitement of violence, we unravel safety in our communities and effectively give licence to more hatred and conflict. The lesson of the Israel-Hamas war is that our mostly peaceful corner of the world is not immune from importing international conflicts and that the risks of escalation to violence is larger now than in the past.
Our elected leaders now have to step up and stand up for the country we aspire to be both in terms of our domestic and international responses to this conflict. Not responding, whether it be to hate crimes at home or not providing humanitarian aid, is both a domestic and international risk. We cannot expect to have the moral high ground if we do not fight at home those same forces of racism and hate that are tearing the Middle East apart.