The Coaldale Solar facility in Alberta on Oct. 5, 2022.Guillaume Nolet/The Globe and Mail
Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, a senior fellow at the University of Ottawa’s Positive Energy program, a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, and the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
Zap. You’re electrified!
Welcome to the mantra of major economies around the world. The fight against climate change demands action. That means more electric vehicles, more carbon capture and global initiatives such as the Green Climate Fund, launched to help developing countries accelerate their energy transition. Here at home, Canada’s action on climate change has focused on carbon pricing, clean electricity, public transportation, energy-efficient buildings and innovation. The Liberal government has also committed billions of dollars to electric-vehicle (EV) projects.
According to a study for the University of Ottawa’s Positive Energy Initiative by Nanos, a majority of Canadians are interested in transitioning away from gasoline for cars and natural gas for their furnace. Three of 10 people are interested in making this transition but have not started (29 per cent) while another 29 per cent who are interested have started their own transition. Another 10 per cent are interested and have already done all they plan to do. The remaining one-third (32 per cent) flat out said they are not interested in making a transition – a number that hits a high in the Prairie provinces (44 per cent) and a low in Quebec (18 per cent).
The bad news is that, overall, the appetite to transition away from carbon has weakened. In 2023, 66 per cent of Canadians reported interest or had taken action to transition away from carbon. This has dropped to around six in 10 in 2024. As more and more Canadians feel crushed by the rising cost of things such as housing, groceries and energy, interest in greening their lives is weakening. Reasons like affordability (32 per cent), not being ready or needing change (13 per cent) or saying there is not enough infrastructure (11 per cent) are consistently mentioned to explain a lack of interest in transitioning to less carbon.
According to a study for Schneider Electric by Nanos, the percentage of Canadians who are confident that we will reach our net-zero goal is a paltry 2 per cent. Another 13 per cent are somewhat confident the goal will be reached. The same study showed that 57 per cent of Canadians were not aware that $400-billion was needed to replace aging facilities and expand electricity generating capacity for the country to achieve the current net-zero goals.
Question: Are you aware or not aware that, according to the Government of Canada, more than $400-billion is needed to replace aging facilities and expand generation capacity in Canada for it to reach its net-zero goal?
56.8%
43.2%
Not aware
Aware
Question: Are you confident, somewhat confident, somewhat not confident or not confident that Canada will be able to reach its net-zero goal?
Confident
2.3%
Somewhat
confident
13
Somewhat
not confident
26
Not
confident
54.9
Unsure
3.9
the globe and mail, Source: nanos
Question: Are you aware or not aware that, according to the Government of Canada, more than $400-billion is needed to replace aging facilities and expand generation capacity in Canada for it to reach its net-zero goal?
56.8%
43.2%
Not aware
Aware
Question: Are you confident, somewhat confident, somewhat not confident or not confident that Canada will be able to reach its net-zero goal?
Confident
2.3%
Somewhat
confident
13
Somewhat
not confident
26
Not
confident
54.9
Unsure
3.9
the globe and mail, Source: nanos
Question: Are you aware or not aware that, according to the Government of Canada, more than $400-billion is needed to replace aging facilities and expand generation capacity in Canada for it to reach its net-zero goal?
Question: Are you confident, somewhat confident, somewhat not confident or not confident that Canada will be able to reach its net-zero goal?
Confident
2.3%
Somewhat
confident
13
Somewhat
not confident
26
Not aware
Aware
56.8%
43.2%
Not
confident
54.9
Unsure
3.9
the globe and mail, Source: nanos
The good news is that some specific renewable options do have appeal. For example, 85 per cent of Canadians are open or somewhat open to installing solar panels or heat pumps at home. The No. 1 barrier preventing Canadians from making the transition is the cost or the view that there was no return on investment (53 per cent). As a result, almost eight in 10 would support, to one extent or another, incentives to encourage Canadians to use renewable energy sources for home and transportation.
What does this all mean?
We need an energy strategy where Canadians feel they can participate, exercise control and have an impact. Although not perfect, Canadians can take some lessons from countries such as Germany which have focused, in the wake of the war between Ukraine and Russia, on transitioning to less carbon-intensive energy and using less energy period.
We also need a greater focus on individual action and responsibility. Although carbon taxes and industrial investments in a greener economy have a role to play, consuming less energy is good for the pocketbooks of average Canadians, and very good for the environment.
To achieve any sort of greener economy will require sacrifices. It does not help for a government to introduce a carbon tax and then paper over the impact. The purpose of a carbon tax is to change behaviour. What we do know is that for average Canadians, the impact is being minimized by a government rebate while at the same time adding to inflationary pressures on our economy. Canada, like all major economies, is fuelled by carbon-based energy. Food and goods don’t get to market without trucks, trains and ships powered by gas or diesel. Canadians are sophisticated enough to be told the true cost and to decide on the sacrifices they must make in order to help the environment.
The elephant in the room is power generation. To be competitive and to prepare for a less carbon intensive economy, we will need major investments in power generation immediately. Even if Canadians get smarter on energy consumption, our growth will demand more power.
Right now, people have little confidence in our ability to meet the current net-zero targets. Likewise, our national energy transition needs to generally align with that of our neighbour and most important trading partner, the United States.
We can be smarter, more energy efficient and ambitious, but our strategy needs to be grounded in economic and environmental realities. Everyone must make sacrifices, but we still need to invest in our energy sector. It will take more than a zap to transition to a greener, cleaner world.