Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gives a year-end interview in Ottawa this past December.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington and, the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
From a polling perspective, 2023 was a horrible year for the federal Liberals. It doesn’t matter if the government was sometimes a victim of forces outside its control – it felt as if everything that could have gone wrong went wrong.
There are certain public opinion records governments don’t like to break, and according to annual tracking by Nanos over the past 17 years, the Liberals broke the record last year for the lowest positive performance score for the federal government. Only 23 per cent of Canadians scored the government as doing a very good (5 per cent) or good (18 per cent) job. This is down 37 points compared with when the Liberals assumed office in 2015, and lower than in the last year of the previous Conservative government: In the year before Stephen Harper was defeated by the Justin Trudeau Liberals, more than one in three assessed the performance of the Harper government as very good (16 per cent) or good (21 per cent).
Government performance
How would you describe the performance of the current federal government?
Very good
Somewhat good
Average
Somewhat poor
Very poor
Unsure
Liberals in office
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Government performance
How would you describe the performance of the current federal government?
Very good
Somewhat good
Average
Somewhat poor
Very poor
Unsure
Liberals in office
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Government performance
How would you describe the performance of the current federal government?
Very good
Somewhat good
Average
Somewhat poor
Very poor
Unsure
Liberals in office
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
It doesn’t get much better when it comes to how Canadians feel about our international reputation: The Liberals registered the lowest positive score of any government in 17 years with only 13 per cent of respondents saying that Canada’s reputation around the world over the past year has improved (3 per cent) or somewhat improved (10 per cent).
Canada’s international reputation
How has Canada’s international reputation changed over the past year?
Improved
Somewhat improved
Neutral
Somewhat not improved
Not improved
Unsure
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Canada’s international reputation
How has Canada’s international reputation changed over the past year?
Improved
Somewhat improved
Neutral
Somewhat not improved
Not improved
Unsure
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Canada’s international reputation
How has Canada’s international reputation changed over the past year?
Somewhat
not improved
Not improved
Unsure
Improved
Somewhat
improved
Neutral
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
What is striking about the trend line is the same Liberal government has registered both the highest and the lowest scores both on performance and our self perception of our international reputation.
Also, views on these matters are more likely to be more negative among Canadians who are under 55 years of age compared with those over 55.
When asked about whether Canada is moving in the right or wrong direction, the Trudeau Liberals have tied the Harper Conservatives with the lowest right-direction score (31 per cent) over the past 17 years. People that live in the West, men and middle-aged Canadians were more likely to assert that Canada was moving in the wrong direction compared with others. The current right-direction assessment for the Liberals of 31 per cent is the lowest of their mandate, with right-direction scores being twice as high at the beginning of their first mandate in 2015.
Direction of the country
Would you say that Canada as a country is moving in the right or the wrong direction?
Right direction
Wrong direction
Unsure
Liberals in office
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Direction of the country
Would you say that Canada as a country is moving in the right or the wrong direction?
Right direction
Wrong direction
Unsure
Liberals in office
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Direction of the country
Would you say that Canada as a country is moving in the right or the wrong direction?
Right direction
Wrong direction
Unsure
Liberals in office
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
It’s hard to see any silver linings for the Liberals. Asked about the state of federal-provincial relations, those that said they have improved or somewhat improved increased from 10 per cent in 2022 to 13 per cent in 2023. Still, on this measure, Canadians were more than four times as likely to share a negative rather than a positive assessment.
Federal-provincial relations
How has the relationship between the federal and the provincial governments changed over the past year?
Improved
Somewhat improved
Neutral
Somewhat not improved
Not improved
Unsure
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Federal-provincial relations
How has the relationship between the federal and the provincial governments changed over the past year?
Improved
Somewhat improved
Neutral
Somewhat not improved
Not improved
Unsure
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Federal-provincial relations
How has the relationship between the federal and the provincial governments changed over the past year?
Somewhat
not improved
Not improved
Unsure
Improved
Somewhat
improved
Neutral
100%
80
60
40
20
0
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
It’s no wonder the federal Liberals trail the Conservatives in the double digits and Mr. Trudeau is behind Pierre Poilievre by double digits in the weekly Nanos preferred prime minister tracking.
More importantly, the trending relationships have also changed.
Between 2015 and August, 2023, the Liberal and New Democratic trend lines had an inverse relationship. When Liberal support went up, NDP support declined. This scenario was one of consolidation and deconsolidation of progressive voters.
Since August, 2023, a new relationship has emerged. NDP ballot support decoupled from the Liberals, and currently the relationship is primarily between Liberal and Conservative ballot numbers. The decline in Liberal support since August has benefited the Conservatives and not the NDP. This suggests former progressive-leaning voters swinging to the Conservatives.
The past four months have witnessed an unravelling of the Liberal progressive voting coalition. Liberal political fortunes are now weaker among voters under 55 years of age both in Ontario and in Atlantic Canada. Although Liberal support is comparatively stronger among female than male voters, it is near or at the lowest level since 2015.
By the numbers, 2023 was the worst year for the Liberals since they were in the political wilderness about a decade ago.
Nothing is set in stone and one should never underestimate the ability of any politician to make a blunder – whether it be the front-runner or the person in second place. In the case of the Liberals, it will require Mr. Poilievre to make a monstrous blunder, indeed.
However, time is running out to change the trend line.
The good news for the federal Liberals is that the election is not today. The bad news is that turning these numbers around and hoping everything goes wrong for your opponents may be wishful thinking. Every government has a best-before date. For the Liberals, it might have been 2023.