Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks in Edmonton, on July 25.JASON FRANSON/The Canadian Press
Danielle Smith is famous for her ability to pack a room with supporters in small-town Alberta. She won her party’s leadership two years ago with votes from the most conservative parts of the province.
Yet, it’s not all sunshine and roses as the Premier marches toward a crucial test: the United Conservative Party’s leadership review. Even the popular, anti-establishment Ms. Smith is not immune from the ravages of a movement that has adopted a culture of (often) tearing it all down from the inside.
A UCP leadership review is held at one out of every three party AGMs in a non-election year. This time it’s in Red Deer during the first weekend in November. The secret-ballot question is: “Do you approve of the current leader?” According to party rules, less than 50-per-cent support triggers a leadership race. But, in reality, a conservative premier wants to get well above 70 – or better yet, 80 – per cent.
Early this year, no one had the slightest whiff of concern about Ms. Smith’s chances. She is no Jason Kenney, the co-founder and first leader of the UCP who governed Alberta through the pandemic and ensuing economic chaos, and who was viewed as an aloof establishment figure by many party members and MLAs. He resigned after receiving a paltry 51 per cent of the party’s support in his 2022 leadership review.
Ms. Smith, on the other hand, is a true student of the eccentricities of Alberta politics. She has been a champion of those who fought COVID-19 vaccine mandates and has been the sharpest of thorns in Ottawa’s side. The economy is doing okay, even if oil prices are down at this moment.
Yet, the Premier is in a wobblier position with UCP members than one might expect. This is shown in a recent series of bold, and defensive, moves.
First, the Premier has backed away from her long-held stand that all population growth is good. Her government’s late-2023 and early-2024 statements that the province’s five million people could double to 10 million before 2050 – and that this was great for the economy – is no longer a talking point. The Premier told the Western Standard last month she’s hearing increased concern that the thousands of new people moving to the province each month are putting a strain on housing and services.
The Premier has also long promised to dismantle Alberta Health Services (AHS), the centralized body that she and other conservatives have demonized for its pandemic-era policies. But she ratcheted up her offensive last month when she said her government could transfer the operation of some AHS-run hospitals to other organizations. Ms. Smith said new competition, and instilling a “fear of having it taken away” amongst operators, could improve service delivery at rural hospitals.
There is more to come. Details, even legislation, to enact the UCP’s controversial sex-ed, pronoun and transgender policies, are likely to be unveiled before the leadership review. There will also be an update to the Alberta Bill of Rights focused on vaccines and bodily autonomy. And last month, Ms. Smith promised a review of the province’s finances, with the aim of finding savings so that she can deliver on her broken election promise to cut personal taxes.
Ms. Smith says she talks to all sorts of people. But she made many of these announcements at private party functions, and many track back to positions held by groups such as the 1905 Committee, an offshoot of the province’s Take Back Alberta movement. These are members of the right flank of the party that push leaders for action on their issues, and say they will push the leaders out if need be, too.
The latter outcome is still unlikely for Ms. Smith. But remember, conservative Alberta premiers are far more likely to be felled by their own than by losing in a general election. It’s not only Mr. Kenney. Former premiers Ralph Klein, Ed Stelmach and Alison Redford all went down through internal machinations.
And that’s not great. To have the leadership of the province constantly hinging on a few thousand motivated party members is an impediment to political stability in Alberta.
For Ms. Smith, there is also the challenge from Naheed Nenshi, the new Alberta NDP Leader. His party is aiming to win support from less-committed conservatives, those who are skeptical or hostile to the policy moves meant to get Ms. Smith through the leadership review.
The UCP dropped a new video this week in a nod to that larger contest. It’s effective in that it shows the Premier as a cheerful, thoughtful leader instead of the inconsistent firebrand her critics portray her as. But three years away from an election, the video also has the tone of someone who is running to keep her job.