France's President Emmanuel Macron waits at the presidential Elysee Palace, in Paris on Oct. 7.ALAIN JOCARD/AFP/Getty Images
On Monday, many of France’s leading political figures gathered with members of the Jewish community in a Paris arena to mark the first anniversary of the deadliest attack on Jews since the Holocaust. Emmanuel Macron was conspicuously absent from the event to commemorate the victims of the Oct. 7 Hamas assault on Israel. But the mere mention of the French President’s name drew loud boos from the audience.
Two days earlier, Mr. Macron had angered supporters of Israel around the world by calling for a halt to arms shipments to the Jewish state as it wages a multifront war against its enemies in the Middle East.
The French Leader said the ban would only apply to weapons used by Israel “to carry out combat in Gaza.” But the precision amounted to a distinction without a difference; it would be nearly impossible for arms suppliers to apply a Gaza-only ban without imposing a blanket arms embargo on Israel. Mr. Macron surely knew that.
What made Mr. Macron’s declaration seem even more self-serving was the fact that France sells almost no weapons to Israel, which imports 99 per cent of the arms it does not produce itself from the United States and Germany. Like Canada, which has made a point of suspending arms shipments to Israel, a similar move by France would have no effect on Israel’s ability to continue its assault on Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Unlike his predecessor Charles de Gaulle – who imposed an arms embargo on Israel after it launched the Six Day War in 1967 – Mr. Macron has no leverage over the Jewish state. Back then, Israel was hugely dependent on the French-built fighter jets it used to make short work of the Syrian, Egyptian and Jordanian armies.
Still, Mr. Macron is nothing if not unpredictable. After thinking he could he persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin not to invade Ukraine in 2022, Mr. Macron earlier this year mused about sending French troops to defend Ukraine. His outburst, which came without warning, irritated France’s NATO allies to no end.
A year ago, in the aftermath of Oct. 7, the French President called for an international “anti-Hamas coalition” to defeat the terrorist organization like the military alliance Western countries had created in 2014 to destroy the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Mr. Macron soon went from hawk to dove and called for a ceasefire in Gaza.
“For the past year, [Mr. Macron] has practised at best zigzag diplomacy, at worst [he has been] equally distant from Israel as from its Islamist enemies,” former French prime minister Manuel Valls said in an interview with French newsmagazine Le Point.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, fresh off a string of military successes against Hezbollah, issued an even more scathing rebuke of Mr. Macron. “As Israel fights the forces of barbarism led by Iran, all civilized countries should be standing firmly by Israel’s side. Yet President Macron and some other Western leaders are now calling for an arms embargo on Israel. Shame on them.”
While the timing of Mr. Macron’s outburst on the eve of Oct. 7 struck many observers as indelicate, it came as the French President was hosting the Francophonie summit in Paris. Many of the 88 member states and governments belonging to the Organisation internationale de la Francophonie are former French colonies in Africa with large Muslim populations sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. His call for a ban on arms shipments to Israel was, to say the least, well received by most delegations at the summit.
Mr. Macron also sought to show solidarity with Lebanon, a former French protectorate that has traditionally looked to France for support in global affairs. France and the United States, joined by Canada and several other countries, called on Sept. 25 for an “immediate” 21-day ceasefire along the Israel-Lebanon border to offset the “unacceptable risk of a broader escalation.”
Israel has responded by stepping up its attacks on Hezbollah, as it at the same time weighs military strikes against Iran after Tehran’s recent missile attack on Tel Aviv.
Mr. Macron has seen his influence in domestic affairs shrivel in the wake of July legislative elections that saw his coalition lose more than 80 National Assembly seats. He recently appointed a new right-leaning government led by former rival Prime Minister Michel Barnier. But the President has no control over its agenda.
That, in part, explains the hyperactive Mr. Macron’s stepped-up presence on the world stage in recent weeks, including his impromptu 24-hour Canadian visit last month. As he becomes increasingly toxic among voters at home – his approval rating last week hit a record-low 22 per cent – Mr. Macron is likely to spend the remainder of his presidency seeking to make his mark abroad.
For better or, more probably, for worse.