Jon Allen is a former Canadian ambassador to Israel and a senior fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy.
The Middle East is a confused and dangerous mess right now. Despite what the world had hoped for – a sensible and supposedly Israel-sponsored peace plan announced by U.S. President Joe Biden just over a week ago, reaffirmed by Monday’s United Nations Security Council resolution supporting the plan – tragically we are no closer to a ceasefire or the release of the bulk of the remaining hostages than we were before the announcement. Innocent Palestinians continue to die and be wounded in large numbers, and the delivery of humanitarian assistance has largely stalled again with the closing of the Rafah crossing. Furthermore, there is continuing chatter about Israel opening up a second front in the north against Hezbollah – a conflict that could make the war in Gaza look small in terms of the number of lives lost on both sides.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who says one thing in English to Mr. Biden and something very different in Hebrew to members of his right-wing cabinet and his base, continues to demand total victory against Hamas. This is seemingly inconsistent with a plan that calls for a temporary and then a permanent ceasefire. Moreover, according to most experts, the complete defeat of Hamas is not even a possibility.
Two events this past weekend – the freeing by the IDF of four Israeli hostages, and the departure of Benny Gantz, the centrist former Opposition leader and chief of defence staff, from Israel’s war cabinet – have engendered further speculation about next steps in the region. The latter event may have come too late to have any effect.
While the release of the four hostages was welcomed with joy and relief by all in Israel and Jews in the diaspora, it unfortunately does not change the fact that most of the hostages held by Hamas who have been released alive were freed through negotiations. That is likely to remain the case moving ahead. The freeing of the four hostages, however, may only strengthen the resolve of Mr. Netanyahu and his two ultraright ministers to continue the war as they argue that military force is the only answer to releasing the remaining hostages.
Mr. Gantz and his National Unity party’s departure from the governing coalition probably should have happened months ago. Instead, by announcing only last month that he would depart on June 8 if his demands for a postwar plan were not met, Mr. Gantz tainted himself by facilitating a highly questionable campaign and allowed Mr. Netanyahu to make him look weak and indecisive. It’s not the first time. In 2020, Mr. Gantz entered into a coalition government and was scheduled to claim the prime ministership, until Mr. Netanyahu outmanoeuvred him by calling an early election.
Just six weeks ago, Mr. Netanyahu looked to be on the ropes electorally and Mr. Gantz’s party was 20 points ahead in the polls. However, as hard as it may be to believe here in Canada, a Channel 12 news survey recently found that support for Mr. Netanyahu has actually risen somewhat, while Mr. Gantz’s numbers have fallen.
Mr. Gantz’s departure and his criticism of the Prime Minister are significant and point again to the Prime Minister’s failure to prioritize the hostages and outline a plan for the “day after” the war. While his actions are morally incomprehensible and a strategic failure, he still has a four-seat majority in the Knesset. And unless some of the moderate members of his Likud party bolt or hundreds of thousands of Israelis take to the streets – an unlikely event, while the war continues – Mr. Netanyahu cannot be forced to call an election.
There is also now talk in Israel of a new bloc being formed, one farther to the right of Mr. Gantz’s National Unity Party. It would include former prime minister Naftali Bennett, former ministers Gideon Sa’ar and Avigdor Lieberman, and a former head of Mossad, Yossi Cohen. If it were to come to pass, this new party could pose a future challenge both to Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz.
With Mr. Gantz no longer serving as a moderate voice inside the government, the most that Mr. Biden and the Israeli people can hope for now is that Mr. Netanyahu will somehow be forced into elections, and that someone with the country’s true interests at heart, rather than their own, will finally take the reins.