B.C. NDP Leader David Eby makes his way to the stage to address supporters on election night in Vancouver, on Oct. 19.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
B.C.’s New Democrats appear to have the majority they were looking for – at least for now.
The final count of absentee ballots on Monday flipped one suburban Surrey riding that went Conservative on election night to the NDP. However, the margin remains so thin – 27 votes – that it will be subject to an automatic judicial recount.
Still, it’s unlikely the overall result will change, and there certainly can’t be anyone happier than NDP Leader David Eby.
Given the minority position his party faced on election night, its prospects for power hinged on some type of governing agreement with the Green Party and its two-person caucus. That type of pact was never going to be a possibility between the Conservatives and the Greens; such is the chasm that exists in the two parties’ platforms, not to mention their general worldviews.
The Greens and the NDP were more sympatico issues-wise, although finding common ground on key matters would have been difficult. Now it would appear those negotiations won’t be necessary.
But life in what is effectively a one-seat majority (if the current numbers hold up) is not going to be easy.
The NDP will likely have to sacrifice one of its MLAs for the position of Speaker in a new Parliament. (They could try and entice a Conservative to take the position, but it’s doubtful that would ever be sanctioned by party leader John Rustad.) That will give the government 46 seats to 44 for the Conservatives and two for the Greens. In the event of a tie vote, the Speaker can cast a decisive ballot. And on most matters – certainly any matters of confidence – he or she will almost assuredly vote in favour of the government.
But one-seat majorities never afford a government much leeway. Fact is, stuff happens to people. MLAs get sick, have accidents, need to deal with emergencies away from parliamentary precincts. In other words, the NDP will have zero breathing room, which is why nurturing a positive relationship with the Greens will be an essential part of this government’s mandate. More than likely, the government will need the Greens’ help at some point.
That said, it’s difficult to look at the Green platform and see anything that the NDP government could adopt verbatim. For instance, the Greens’ central pledge to introduce a proportional-representation voting system to B.C. would be a non-starter with the NDP. So would the Greens’ desire to effectively shutter the natural-gas industry.
The NDP might be best advised to take one area of the Greens’ platform that seems reasonable and work with them on that. One option is the pledge to create community health centres in the 93 electoral ridings that exist in B.C. These centres would be staffed by doctors, nurse practitioners, physiotherapists, dietitians and other health workers. It would be primary health care on a broad scale. The NDP would be smart to get the Greens onside by getting them to help design such a plan.
Beyond massaging their relationship with the Greens, the NDP will have to massage its relationship with the public. With a loss of eight NDP seats, this election still amounts to a giant rebuke of Mr. Eby and his government’s record over the past couple of years since he took over. It’s a reflection of the electorate’s alarm over the debt the NDP has accumulated, its drug policies, and its lack of progress in fighting crime and public disorder.
Fair or not, Mr. Eby is viewed as an ultraprogressive who has tacked his party much further to the left than it ever was under his popular predecessor, John Horgan. There were signs Mr. Eby was aware of this and was trying, albeit slowly, to steer the good ship NDP back toward the middle by promising to cancel B.C.’s carbon tax (if Ottawa cancels the federal one) and retreat on certain aspects of its decriminalization experiment.
Meantime, the health care system continues to wobble under the weight of incredible demand. According to a new report by the Canadian Institute for Health Information, B.C. has the worst primary care coverage outside of Atlantic Canada and the territories. After a while, people get tired of the excuses and the promises that help is on the way. That’s when they decide to give someone else a shot at trying to solve the problem.
That partially explains why the B.C. Conservatives were able to rise from political oblivion just 18 months ago to almost forming government in this election. People want stuff solved – now.
Still, the NDP has to be relieved it has enough votes to mostly carry on as it wishes, on its terms and not anyone else’s. For how long, we don’t know.