BC United leader Kevin Falcon speaks in Surrey, B.C. in April, 2023,DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
Before we get to the current state of B.C. politics, we need to take a trip back in time.
In 1986, the centre-right Social Credit Party rode to another victory under the audacious leadership of one Bill Vander Zalm. Electing Mr. Vander Zalm to head the party over a field of what were surely more qualified, level-headed alternatives proved to be a fatal mistake.
Mr. Vander Zalm, a social conservative, would be gone before the next election, undone by scandal and controversy in a departure that would precipitate a seismic victory by the New Democratic Party in the 1991 election. The NDP won 51 seats to 17 for a reborn BC Liberal Party and only seven for the Socreds. After the 1996 election, the Socreds were no more.
In 2001, the Liberals won in a landslide. When the last ballot was counted, the party had 77 seats, the NDP two. The Liberals would rule continuously before being bounced in 2017 through a power-sharing agreement between the NDP and the Green Party.
Now, the province finds itself closing in on an election this fall just as another cataclysmic restructuring of its political dynamic is playing out.
The BC Liberals are no more. After Kevin Falcon was elected to lead the party in February, 2022, he initiated a move to change the Liberal name. It was long felt by some that it was confusing, since the Liberals were a coalition of moderates and conservatives. It was thought that an amorphous, big-tent name would be more advantageous, and so BC United was born.
It was a name seemingly dead upon arrival when the change occurred in April, 2023. But things had been going downhill for the party beforehand as well.
In 2022, Mr. Falcon had kicked John Rustad out of his caucus for being a climate denier. In turn, Mr. Rustad decided to join the B.C. Conservatives and, against all odds, has led them to a miraculous revival as leader. In the past several days, in fact, a couple of big-name BC United MLAs have crossed the floor to join Mr. Rustad and the only other Conservative on the Opposition benches.
The latest, announced on Monday, was Elenore Sturko. It can’t be overstated what a blow this is to Mr. Falcon and his party.
Ms. Sturko was a star for BC United. A former RCMP spokesperson and a prominent member of the LGBTQ+ community, Ms. Sturko is a natural politician and became one of United’s most effective critics, especially around provincial drug policies. Her decision is all the more shocking given past conflicts she has had with the Tories.
A B.C. Conservative Party candidate recently had to resign for describing LGBTQ+ Pride Parade participants as “degenerates,” and “perverts” who “expose themselves to children for kicks.” Another candidate described Ms. Sturko, before her defection, as a “woke, lesbian, social justice warrior.”
And this suddenly became a party Ms. Sturko wanted to join?
Anyone seeking clues as to why need only peruse any of the polling that has been published in the past year. Almost all of them have the Conservatives in second place behind the NDP, and BC United at a very distant third. On one level, these polls make no sense: the Conservatives have been in the political wilderness for years. Mr. Rustad is hardly a known entity in the province and most of the publicity that the party has generated since he’s taken the helm has hardly been flattering.
Which maybe tells you just how badly Mr. Falcon and his recast party have done in connecting with the public.
What the Conservatives have going for them is their name. They are likely drafting behind the momentum Pierre Poilievre has given the conservative brand in Canada. Happy Slappy could be leading the BC Conservatives into taking second-party status – an event unheard of in modern B.C. politics.
The turmoil among the free-enterprise forces in the province is manna for NDP Leader and B.C. Premier David Eby. Given his own political problems – a decriminalization experiment that has gone off the rails, among them – a well-organized and focused Opposition could be problematic. Instead, the centre-right in B.C. is in tatters.
According to a poll published last week by Angus Reid, the NDP holds an 11-point lead over the Conservatives – 41 per cent to 30 per cent. BC United was at 16 per cent.
Perhaps Jas Johal, a former BC Liberal MLA and now radio host, said it best about the state of the free-enterprise movement in British Columbia: “It’s a speeding car hurtling toward a brick wall, driven by a baby boomer with poor eyesight, sketchy brakes, bald tires and air safety bags that expired in 2017,” he posted on X.
Sounds about right.