In 2003, TD Bank released a report calling the Calgary-Edmonton corridor one of the strongest economic zones on the continent -- Canada's own economic tiger. Population growth and economic vigour have only accelerated since. If it was a tiger then, it's a tiger on steroids now.
The clearest evidence of growth can be seen in the straining transportation systems. The highway between Calgary and Edmonton is vital to the province, like an economic jugular vein. Thousands of trucks and cars pulse along the 300-kilometre strip of double-lane blacktop, carrying business commuters, leisure travellers and millions of dollars of cargo every day.
But the explosive growth along the corridor is raising the economic blood pressure. The vein looks dangerously close to clogging.
The road that joins the two cities -- recently renamed the Queen Elizabeth II Highway -- is hardly a route with which the Queen would like to be associated. Giant double-axel trucks rumble along as SUVs and Smart cars alike weave back and forth between them. Day and night, tailgaters, aggressive drivers and sheer volume make the trip increasingly unpleasant and unsafe.
Expanding the highway to three lanes each way is one possible solution. But this would cost billions and take years to complete. Besides, increasing capacity is not a good long-term solution. It's a bit like solving obesity by buying a bigger pair of pants.
Some suggest the province needs a high-speed bullet train. Proposals for such a link have been batted around for at least 30 years, but the latest revival has been sparked by the Kyoto debate. Removing some passenger traffic from the QEII would reduce carbon emissions, improve safety and lower the need for enlargement.
But would Alberta commuters use a high-speed bullet train? One of the big obstacles is that Calgarians and Edmontonians still like to have their cars once they arrive in the other city. Both cities are designed for the car. If a high-speed rail link is going to work, it must include improvements to city transportation systems.
Without a lot of passengers, the economic feasibility of a bullet train unravels rather quickly. Commercially, it would be risky, leaving the provincial government as the only other player who could step up to bat. But it would be the government's last inclination to pour billions of tax dollars into propping up an uneconomic venture. Alberta learned this lesson in the 1980s.
Construction cost is the main issue. The deluxe version, of course, would be built above grade, towering 10 metres above the cows and canola of central Alberta. It would boast the latest and most advanced technology in magnetic rail systems. Five hundred kilometres an hour, the Cadillac of bullet trains! But there is a stubborn streak of frugality in Alberta when it comes to public projects. Anything remotely stylish or even "nice" about something as utilitarian as a train would be screamed down, particularly if any tax money is spent. Surely we can do it for less, the tight-fisted critics would cry.
And we could do it for less -- far less. At the other end of the spectrum is a ground-level system (watch out, cows!), perhaps a diesel system that runs on the existing CP and CN track. In other words, not a bullet train at all, just a souped-up commuter train, maybe with some lightening bolt decals on the side to make it look faster.
The transportation jugular vein linking the two cities is not likely to get any relief from the clogging any time soon. The province has other transportation infrastructure priorities, such as twinning Highway 63 to Fort McMurray. And as quickly as Edmonton and Calgary are growing, the population density is probably still shy of what would be necessary for a profitable high-speed train.
In the meantime, commuters will jockey with cargo along the QEII. It's only going to get more harrowing and dangerous as Alberta's economy roars ahead -- a shame, really. The canola fields are really quite lovely.
Todd Hirsch is senior economist at ATB Financial in Calgary. The views expressed are his own.