During India's six-week national elections, it was a frequent criticism hurled at Narendra Modi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader was such a right-leaning hardliner on national security issues that tensions with Pakistan were bound to escalate if he took office in New Delhi.
Would divided Kashmir again become a flashpoint between the two nuclear powers as Mr. Modi, who won a decisive majority when votes were counted on May 16, tried in vain to concentrate on fixing the Indian economy, as he promised? And how would Mr. Modi react if Pakistan-based terrorists launched another attack on Indian soil similar to the devastating violence that occurred in Mumbai in 2008, when terrorists killed 164 people? Would Mr. Modi – attempting to distinguish himself from India's former prime minister, Manmohan Singh – be forced to act tough?
Well, so much for that theory – at least for now.
In a move that stunned many, Mr. Modi reached out to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and invited him to his swearing in ceremony at New Delhi's presidential palace, which took place on Monday. And, in defiance of hardliners within the Pakistani military, Mr. Sharif actually accepted. At the same time, the violence some feared would challenge the opening chapter of India's new era came not from Pakistan, as some had thought, but from an unexpected (if grimly predictable) place: Afghanistan, where India's consulate in Herat was attacked by gunmen (though, no diplomats were injured).
For now, at least, things between India and Pakistan seem calmer than many had feared – and the relationship has gotten off to a better-than-expected start.
The two men, leaders of countries that were torn apart during partition in 1947, shook hands and had a short meeting to discuss cross-border trade and other issues. They were also expected to have discussed cricket, which has often been a soothing factor in India-Pakistan relations: Before Mr. Sharif arrived in India, he took a call from the head of the Pakistan Cricket Board about six test series due to be played between the countries from 2015 to 2023 – the last one having been played in 2007, before the Mumbai attacks soured bilateral relations.
Of course, the invitation should have been expected. Mr. Modi's foreign policy advisers made it clear – as one told me in an interview during the campaign – that a BJP-led government would focus on rebuilding regional relationships. Mr. Sharif's invitation may have been shocking, but he was invited along with leaders from the other countries that make up the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, which also includes Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. As a token of goodwill, both Sri Lanka and Pakistan ordered the release of Indian fisherman who had previously been arrested for poaching.
At the same time, it would be unwise to read too much into the meeting between Mr. Modi and Mr. Sharif, as there is unlikely to be any major thaw between the regional rivals. Many Indians still (justifiably) view Pakistan as a country that harbours terrorists who want to cause havoc in India. And both Mr. Modi – who for 12 years was chief minister of the Indian state of Gujarat, which borders Pakistan – and the BJP have long taken a hard stance on Pakistan. Mr. Modi's advisers see little point in having summit level discussions with a country that is still so openly hostile.
One open question is whether Mr. Modi can contain and steer hardline or fringe elements within his own party – which gained a majority government in part by courting supporters in India's right-wing, Hindu nationalist movement. This applies to foreign policy and national security issues such as Pakistan, but also to domestic issues that affect India's sizable Muslim population, such as the construction of a controversial Hindu temple in the Indian city of Ayodhya on a site claimed by both Hindus and Muslims.
Although a handshake and a quick meeting between the two men is preferable to various alternate scenarios, Mr. Modi has – at least for now – put Indo-Pakistani relations on a more promising course than many of the doomsayers had predicted.