This week's political manoeuvring to concoct a coalition government in Israel had an epic House of Cards feel to it.
There was the ambitious national leader, in this case Benjamin Netanyahu, counting his chickens from his surprisingly good showing in the country's March 17 election, when three equally ambitious former staff members – carrying grudges against the Prime Minister and his equally ambitious wife – seize the moment to carry out their revenge.
First was Avigdor Lieberman, the Arab-baiting foreign minister. As six weeks of coalition negotiations wound down, Mr. Lieberman is reported to have been ticked off because Mr. Netanyahu, the man he served as chief of staff in the 1990s, had taken him for granted, assuming that he and the five other MPs of his right-wing Yisrael Beitenu party would happily sign up for Mr. Netanyahu's latest coalition. Instead, at the 11th hour, Mr. Lieberman did a bunk – no way would he be part of this new government.
You can take your pick of the reasons why from any or all of the following:
In addition to being taken for granted, he was even more ticked off that Mr. Netanyahu triggered a scandal by having the attorney-general look into Yisrael Beitenu's questionable finances. He opposed the Netanyahu plan to reverse the last government's efforts to have the ultra-Orthodox do their share of economic and army service. He wants to be prime minister himself. He likes to make people squirm.
Israeli media reports suggest it was likely all of the above.
In any event, his precipitous action left Mr. Netanyahu no choice but to turn to Naftali Bennett, leader of the pro-settler Jewish Home party, another man the Prime Minister appeared to have been ignoring while he signed coalition deals with other parties.
It turns out that Mr. Bennett, chief of staff to Mr. Netanyahu from 2006-2008, along with a senior colleague, Ayelet Shaked, who managed the Netanyahu office at the same time, had a shopping list of demands. Before the clock struck midnight Wednesday – the deadline for Mr. Netanyahu to form a government – the pair came away with control of the Justice Ministry, the Education Ministry and just about anything to do with administering the occupied West Bank.
Mr. Bennett and Ms. Shaked's demands are based mostly on ambitions of power, but they too had revenge in mind. According to Israeli media, Mrs. Netanyahu never liked the lean and hungry look both exhibited, and neither has ever been invited into the home of the Prime Minister and his wife. In the new coalition agreement, however, both these pretenders will be members of the inner cabinet with privileges, including standing invites to the official residence.
The whole drama brings to mind that opening episode of House of Cards' second season, when the central figure, the impossibly ambitious Washington politician Frances Underwood, has just thrown his mistress under a train. "For those of us climbing to the top of the food chain, there can be no mercy," he says. "There is but one rule: Hunt or be hunted."
In Israel these days it's hard to tell one from the other.
Mr. Netanyahu dissolved his previous coalition by firing his finance and justice ministers, and then promising voters he would return with a more stable government – "a broad-based government that can govern," he said.
To be sure, he has been returned, but with the tightest majority possible – just 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats – and this only after giving in to the policy and ministerial demands of his coalition partners.
With absolutely no wiggle room, any legislation put forward by the government will have to have the approval of pretty well every one of the mostly right-wing and religious members. It would only take one coalition member voting against a bill, or two abstaining from voting, to defeat a government measure.
Forget about a peace process with the Palestinians – there's not even a mention of such a thing in any of the government's agreements with the various parties. Besides, control of the West Bank has been handed over to the settlers' party.
Of course, Jewish Home's Justice Minister Shaked has her heart set on legislation that would reduce the powers of the Supreme Court. (Settlers hate the court because it always seems to rule against many of their West Bank land grabs.) And that kind of measure might not pass either.
Newly-appointed Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon, leader of the more centrist Kulanu Party, has it in his coalition agreement that he can vote against any efforts to weaken the court.
But of course, Mr. Kahlon's has big plans for economic reforms to better the working and middle class. They too become a long shot, since they're bound to upset at least a few of the coalition members, especially those in the ultra-Orthodox parties that have been promised an increase in government subsidies for their people, as well a reduction in the number required to work or serve in the military.
If any member pulls out one of the coalition cards the whole house falls.
The only way Mr. Netanyahu can govern is constantly to balance the interests of one party off against another.
"In some ways, this tiny coalition is perfect for Netanyahu," wrote Anshel Pfeffer in Haartez. "After all, ministers under constant threat of losing their seats won't rock the boat."
Mr. Netanyahu says he has plans to enlarge the coalition, by which he means bringing Isaac Herzog and his Labour party into a so-called national unity government. He has even gone to the trouble of not assigning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to anyone, in the hope Mr. Herzog will take it.
Don't be so sure.
Mr. Herzog saw what happened to the last Labour leader to climb into bed with Mr. Netanyahu – Ehud Barak ended up presiding over a shrinking Labour party that only Mr. Herzog has been able to rescue. He's not likely to squander that.
Moreover, Mr. Herzog can see the likelihood of this government's collapse, in which case the call will come for him to try to form a new government. Either by working with the current Knesset makeup, or by going to another election, Mr. Herzog's chances of forming a government are much better if he says no to Mr. Netanyahu and lets him twist in the wind.
What would Frank Underwood do?