Both candidates must shore up favourability ratings if they want to stand a chance of winning the presidency.AFP / Getty Images
HILLARY CLINTON
Making history
In this campaign, Hillary Clinton has made history as the first female presumptive nominee for a major political party. But her long experience on the national stage means that she is also a candidate about whom many voters have already made up their minds. Some of them find her distasteful or worse. According to the latest data from polling company Gallup, 55 per cent of Americans hold an unfavourable view of Ms. Clinton while 38 per cent hold a favourable impression. That's better than her opponent, but not by much: 62 per cent of Americans view Donald Trump unfavourably and just 32 per cent view him favourably. One pollster dubbed the contest between Mr. Trump and Ms. Clinton "the race of the unloved."
Not all of the negative sentiment can be traced to the actions or reputations of the candidates themselves, experts say. The increasing polarization of the electorate in recent years also plays a part. Americans "tend to increasingly dislike the other party and its leader," said Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University. "It's almost impossible for [a candidate] to be viewed favourably by the other party."
While majorities of Americans appear to dislike both Ms. Clinton and Mr. Trump, the same is not true for members of their respective parties. The recent Gallup poll shows that Ms. Clinton is viewed in a favourable light by 68 per cent of people likely to vote for a Democrat and unfavourably by 27 per cent – figures very similar to Mr. Trump's standing among Republicans.
A lifetime of baggage
Ms. Clinton arrives at this critical juncture carrying baggage accumulated over a lifetime in politics. There are old scandals (the Whitewater real estate mess); half-forgotten controversies (the White House travel office imbroglio); and fresh conspiracy theories (the attack on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi). Most recently, Ms. Clinton has faced criticism for using a private e-mail server to handle her correspondence while serving as President Barack Obama's Secretary of State. That arrangement contravened departmental policy and is now the subject of a federal investigation.
Mr. Trump has already sought to play up the idea that Ms. Clinton is deceitful – he often refers to her by the moniker "Crooked Hillary." Not only is Ms. Clinton seen as dishonest by some voters, but she is a consummate politician at a time when hostility toward establishment figures is surging. Her deep familiarity with the ways of Washington and her closeness to deep-pocketed donors on Wall Street is another reason why some voters have a negative impression of her candidacy.
What's next
The presidential campaign still has five months to run and voters' impressions of candidates have shifted dramatically over that period in the past. Still, experts say that Ms. Clinton faces an uphill battle to reduce her negative aura. Ending the long contest with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and officially becoming her party's standard-bearer at its convention in July could help somewhat, they say. She'll also hit the campaign trail with Mr. Obama, whose approval rating currently tops 50 per cent and who is said to be planning a full-throated endorsement of Ms. Clinton.
Meanwhile, Ms. Clinton's campaign will do everything it can to inflame the negativity surrounding her Republican opponent. "They are going to make this about Donald Trump as much as they can and not about her," said Jeanne Zaino, a professor of political science at Iona College in New York. "It will be about how dangerous he is and how much less dangerous she is in comparison."
DONALD TRUMP
A flair for alienating voters
Donald Trump is, by a notable margin, the most negatively viewed presumptive nominee for a major political party in at least 40 years. In recent days, he has provided Americans with yet another example of his flair for alienating potential voters. Mr. Trump continued to insist that the federal judge overseeing a lawsuit against him was unable to preside over the case in a fair manner because of his Mexican heritage. In the same way, Mr. Trump said he doubted that a Muslim judge would be able to adjudicate a case impartially because of Mr. Trump's proposal to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the country.
Mr. Trump's attack on the judiciary is "bizarre behaviour, it really is," said Mr. Abramowitz. "I've never seen any other candidate do anything like it."
Such behaviour was a bridge too far for Republican leaders, none of whom rushed to Mr. Trump's defence. "This is the most un-American thing from a politician since Joe McCarthy," said Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina who has been vocal in his opposition to Mr. Trump, according to a report in The New York Times. "There'll come a time when the love of country will trump hatred of Hillary."
Enraging some, attracting others
For Mr. Trump, drawing the ire of certain segments of the electorate is a key part of his success as a candidate. By enraging some voters, he attracted the support of others, including a slice of the population that is willing to overlook the way he referred to some Mexican migrants as "rapists" and "criminals," or the way he refused to immediately disavow the endorsement of a white supremacist.
According to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center, attitudes about immigration, Islam and racial diversity are strongly associated with how Republicans view Mr. Trump. Among the large majority of Republicans who believe that a growing number of newcomers from other countries "threatens U.S. values," 59 per cent of them had warm feelings toward Mr. Trump.
Like Hillary Clinton, Mr. Trump is viewed by a majority of voters as untrustworthy, but for different reasons. Mr. Trump has lied about his previous stances on everything from the Iraq war to Japan's military and reversed himself repeatedly on a variety of policy positions. A majority of voters do not believe that he has the experience to be president or that he would display good judgment in a crisis, according to a Gallup poll conducted in May.
What's next
Mr. Trump secured the status of presumptive nominee more than a month before Ms. Clinton did, giving him a head start on the process of pivoting toward the general election. Observers expected Mr. Trump to adopt a more presidential demeanour and to reach out to groups he had maligned. But so far there has been little evidence of either phenomenon, say experts.
"He's wasted this time," said Jeanne Zaino, a professor of political science at Iona College, who added that Mr. Trump must decrease his unfavourability ratings with women and Latinos if he is to have any chance of winning in November. "He has to focus like a laser beam [on those groups] and we haven't seen that ability or organization out of that campaign."
PUBLIC PERCEPTION
Experts
"For Clinton, it's the trust factor, it's the establishment factor. She's an insider and that's a real negative for many people."
– Jeanne Zaino, political scientist at Iona College
"It's bizarre behaviour, it really is. I've never seen any other candidate do anything like it."
– Alan Abramowitz, political scientist at Emory University, on Donald Trump's recent attacks on the ethnicity of a federal judge
Voters
"[Clinton's] stance on everything is always so wishy-washy. It's very obvious that corporate media is behind her. And if you look past the corporate media, she's always changing her mind."
– Sean Pollman, a small business owner from Sioux Falls, S.D.
"[Trump] is the only one I don't want running the country. If I have to, I'll hold my nose and vote for Hillary."
– Kenny Sheinbaum, mechanic from Lakewood, N.J.
"This is the last white man's vote, and Trump is obviously an outstanding representative of that. He's brought out the fear that people of colour are going to take over."
– Harry Backer, retired San Diego teacher
"I really don't care what his political stances are. I just don't like how he talks to people. He's rude and arrogant."
– Sara Smith, stay-at-home mother from South Dakota