Fidel Castro holds a cigar during a news conference in Havana in 1961. The hand-rolled cigar held a certain cachet during the 1990s in the United States, the number of American smokers has declined.The Associated Press
For those who want to find out what détente with Cuba means to the U.S., one could consult with the Council on Foreign Relations, visit to Miami's Little Havana, or easier, just tune into Rush Limbaugh.
"What's the practical meaning of this?" wondered the talk radio host (and smoker) after U.S. President Barack Obama's surprise announcement Wednesday. "It means you can get Cuban cigars now."
While the embargo hasn't yet been lifted on Cuban cigars, it already has given them a halo effect. "This development clearly heralds a new era for the cigar market mainly in the U.S. with the eventual lifting of the [U.S. trade] embargo," said Hans-Kristian Hoejsgaard, chief executive of high-end tobacco maker Oettinger Davidoff, in an e-mailed statement.
The thinking is that, like caviar, cigars represent something scarce, sexy, forbidden. But some industry experts warn that lifting the embargo will not ignite the U.S tobacco market.
There will be no next generation of stogie-chomping Schwarzeneggers.
Even if there is a spike in supply – itself a question mark – chances are there will be a quick inhalation followed by a yawn. "I would question if there is underlying demand," said Euromonitor's senior tobacco analyst, Simon Evans. "I see people buying them for the novelty but then not sustaining interest."
As it stands, U.S. consumption is slowly flickering out: 10 per cent from 2009 to 2013, according to Euromonitor. In part, that was due to the effect of the financial crisis on bankers and executives. Widening health concerns have also contributed, said Mr. Evans, and the fact that there are fewer public venues for plutocrats and pretenders to puff away. Mr. Evans also observes that the resourceful few who want Cubans have already managed to get around the embargo. As it stands, the few Americans who travel to Cuba can import up to $100 (U.S.) in tobacco products.
What's more, the American palate may not care. Mr. Evans and others add Americans don't typically enjoy sucking back the strong, rich tastes of Cohibas or Montecristos that are unique to the local soil. They prefer the mellower flavours from elsewhere. "Think bland – mayonnaise and white bread," said Giuseppe Diluciano, who helps runs Thomas Hinds Tobacconist in Toronto's upscale Yorkville neighbourhood. "They want a Beaujolais when they could be having a Bordeaux that just explodes."
For Americans, the mystique around the Cuban cigar precedes the prodigious puffing of Fidel Castro and his nemesis John F. Kennedy, who in 1962 asked his press secretary, Pierre Salinger, to hoard at least 1,000 H. Upmann Petit Coronas before his administration's landmark trade embargo on the repressive, Communist island.
"There is a romance to them that we associate with the legacy of Hemingway, the era of the Copacabana and [former dictator Fulgencio] Batista," said Michael LaTour, a visiting professor at Cornell University who will be a professor of marketing at Ithaca College next year.
The trend for hand-rolled cigars took off in the 1990s as part a move toward living large. "The demand for high-end autos, food and golf equipment," said Mr. LaTour, co-author of a paper entitled "Is a Cigar Just a Cigar? A Glimpse of the New-Age Cigar Consumer."
"All the stuff that intertwines with the experiential environment," he added. It was, after all, the decade that launched the magazine Cigar Aficionado and real estate rashes of McMansions.
Sales of handmade cigars comprised 10 per cent of total cigar retail volume sales in 2013 and 49 per cent of total cigar retail value sales, according to Euromonitor. Instead, machine-made cigars dominate.
Even if Cuban cigars become an integral part of the American Dream, there is some doubt in the industry whether they will even arrive on U.S. shores. Last month, Imperial Tobacco CEO Alison Cooper, whose company helps produce brands such as such Montecristo and Cohiba, warned about a poor leaf harvest.
Equally important is the way they are made. Tobacco leaves take months to cultivate, and hand-rolling is an artisanal craft, one which requires training and experience. Changes won't happen overnight. Furthermore, industry experts say that catering to the lighter American tastes would require a somewhat significant shift in resources.
If the Cubans chose to, that is. Despite the warming of relations, one can't forget the thick residue of resentment between the two countries. Cubans may decide it's not worth overhauling their system to meet the whims of the Yanqui consumer. "Knowing a few things about the Cubans, I'd say they'll want to do it on their own terms, like the Québécois," said Mr. Diluciano of Thomas Hinds. "Maîtres chez nous."