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Return on investments: 6 graphs that tell the story of the New Hampshire primary

U.S. Politics

Supporters of Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Bernie Sanders cheer during his rally at Great Bay Community College in Portsmouth, New Hampshire on FEb. 7 2016.

Supporters of Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Bernie Sanders cheer during his rally at Great Bay Community College in Portsmouth, New Hampshire on Feb. 7 2016.

SHANNON STAPLETON/REUTERS

Affan Chowdhry looks at the U.S. primary contest in New Hampshire using six graphs – and assesses which candidates have actually benefited in survey polls from all the time and money they invested.

Affan Chowdhry

This article was published more than 8 years ago. Some information may no longer be current.

The small New England state of New Hampshire – with an estimated population of 1.3 million – is next up in the U.S. contests with voters casting ballots on Tuesday Feb. 9.

New Hampshire could shake up presidential politics much like Iowa did almost a week earlier with a second-place finish by Donald Trump on the Republican side and a razor-thin win by Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race.

For the Iowa contest, we looked at the race though six graphs. Here is a similar exercise for New Hampshire – looking at the candidates and how their investments of time and money have translated into popular support.

Democratic candidates

Takeaways

The Democratic field – once three candidates – is now a two-person contest between Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders after former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley suspended his campaign following a poor showing in Iowa.

Mr. Sanders has held a double-digit lead over Ms. Clinton for several weeks – and it is widely expected that the senator, who is from the neighbouring state of Vermont, will carry New Hampshire.

The ad spending battle between the two candidates does not appear to be as fierce as what unfolded in Iowa. There, Ms. Clinton outspent her rival initially.

Bernie Sanders an unlikely favourite to win New Hampshire primary The Globe in New Hampshire: Joanna Slater reports on the senator's rise to the top, his fundraising success and why he's drawing legions of followers.

This time around, the Clinton campaign is not exactly using overwhelming advertising force aimed at voters in New Hampshire – at least not on the state's lone network TV affiliate, WMUR-TV, to which significant advertising dollars are flowing from Democratic and Republican candidates and their supporters, according to analysis by the Boston Globe. That would be a smart political investment move – given the trends.

All signs point to a Bernie Sanders win – only furthering his status as a powerful, and potentially lasting, insurgent in the Democratic race. But caucuses and primaries are also about expectations and Ms. Clinton, with a closer-than-expected second-place finish, could position her campaign for a string of wins in upcoming contests in South Carolina and Nevada, where black and Latino voters will probably give Ms. Clinton the advantage.

Blake West calls voters asking them to vote for Republican presidential canddiate Donald Trump while working at the Trump campaign headquarters on Feb. 8 2016 in Newmarket, New Hampshire.

Blake West calls voters asking them to vote for Republican presidential canddiate Donald Trump while working at the Trump campaign headquarters on Feb. 8 2016 in Newmarket, New Hampshire.

JOE RAEDLE/Getty Images

Republican candidates

Takeaways

Once again, billionaire real estate tycoon Donald Trump is leading the polls. Mr. Trump did not invest in TV ads in Iowa until the month before the caucuses – as the contest on the Republican side tightened.

In New Hampshire, he is following a similar low ad spending strategy.

When it comes to days spent in New Hampshire, Mr. Trump (once again) is by no means leading the pack. In fact, he is on par with Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. They hold the top three spots when it comes to an average of all New Hampshire polls. Among them, Mr. Cruz is also a low TV ad spender, while Mr. Rubio is going big.

The Rubio campaign and its supporters also went big in Iowa on TV ads. That paid off, in part, because he finished a surprising third – not far behind second-place finisher Mr. Trump. But New Hampshire could be a different story for Mr. Rubio. Expectations are that he will do well on Tuesday. But his surprisingly shaky debate performance on the weekend will probably hurt him.

Jeb Bush: the end of a dynasty and a certain kind of Republican? The Globe in New Hampshire: Joanna Slater reports on a candidate who is a throwback to an earlier era, and whether his candidacy is viable in 2016 (for subscribers).

The Jeb Bush campaign and its supporters are also going big in New Hampshire with ad spending – much as they did in Iowa. There is a simple reason for that: Mr. Bush is trying for a breakout performance. But ad spending in support of Mr. Bush has so far not appeared to make a difference in Iowa or New Hampshire. That is not stopping Mr. Bush's supports. The super PAC Right to Rise aired a Super Bowl ad on Sunday featuring former U.S. president George W. Bush making the case for his younger brother.

The big takeaway from the data is how much governors Chris Christie and John Kasich have staked their campaigns on New Hampshire. The two basically passed on Iowa – and focused largely on the Granite State and its moderate Republican voters.

Their campaigns and supporters will have to assess after the New Hampshire results whether their investments – an inordinate amount of time and ad money spent in the state – was worth it, and whether they should continue in the Republican contests to come.

Editor's note: A graph in an earlier version of this article incorrectly indicated that Hillary Clinton was leading Bernie Sanders in the polling average. In fact, it's Mr. Sanders who is leading. This version has been corrected.

Bonus

1. Marco Rubio on loop

Governor Chris Christie calls out Marco Rubio for relying on talking points and repeating the same line several times during a heated debate stage exchange on Feb. 6 – just days before the New Hampshire primary.

2. Big brother to the rescue

In this ad that aired during the Super Bowl and was seen by residents in New Hampshire and South Carolina, George W. Bush makes the case for this younger brother – and why he is the president the United States needs.

U.S. POLITICS

Ad wars: Inside the TV ad onslaught shaping the U.S. presidential election

There is no escaping political advertising for U.S. voters living in key early voting states. Explore TV ads from Democratic and Republican candidates, and the charts and numbers that show why the 2016 election will likely be historic when it comes to TV ad spending and volume.

Read the article