Hillary Clinton is struggling to win over white female voters and millennials. New Hampshire certainly showed that, and Iowa laid bare some weaknesses.
Both demographic groups are part of a key coalition that helped the Democratic Party win the White House in 2008 and 2012. Ms. Clinton's early troubles are a bad sign.
There is a critical caveat. Both Iowa and New Hampshire are states where the overwhelming majority of caucus-goers and primary voters are white.
As the Democratic contests move to states that are more diverse – with large Hispanic and black populations – Ms. Clinton could find herself on more favourable turf.
But it is still worth exploring where (and why) Ms. Clinton ran into trouble with many female voters and millennials, and whether she risks similar problems down the road in what is shaping up to be a long and drawn-out battle for the Democratic Party nomination.
On the face of it, the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses appeared to be a good outcome for Ms. Clinton when it comes to female voters.
But those numbers do not tell the whole story.
Ms. Clinton did poorly when it comes to millennial voters. There is no breakdown of female Iowa caucus-goers by age groups. But these figures for millennial voters in general (18 per cent of all Democratic caucus-goers) point to the role that young women played in helping propel Bernie Sanders to near-victory. In the end, his campaign fell short by a quarter of a percentage point.
After Iowa, Martin O'Malley dropped out of the race, making it a two-person contest.
Noticing the enthusiasm gap among younger female voters, Clinton campaign allies tackled the subject head-on.
"Young women have to support Hillary Clinton. The story is not over," said former U.S. secretary of state Madeleine Albright while appearing on stage with Ms. Clinton days before the New Hampshire primary and alluding to complacency among younger women toward hard-fought gains in women's rights.
She cautioned that without a President Hillary Clinton in the White House, Republicans would try to reverse gains in women's rights by stacking the U.S. Supreme Court with conservative judges.
"And just remember," Ms. Albright continued, "there is a special place in hell for women who don't help each other." It is a line Ms. Albright has used before – and it had Ms. Clinton laughing.
New Hampshire, which breathed life into Ms. Clinton's presidential campaign in 2008 after she beat Barack Obama there, delivered a resounding defeat in 2016. The female vote numbers were particularly sobering.
Ms. Clinton's trustworthiness is a key issue for Democratic voters. Her problems over the use of a private e-mail system that she kept secret during her tenure as U.S. secretary of state – and is now the subject of an FBI investigation – leaves many voters with the impression that they are not hearing the full story.
But there is another key issue: An increasing number of Democratic voters in states like Iowa and New Hampshire are self-identifying as liberals. They have flocked to Mr. Sanders's message of free college tuition and undoing the "rigged economy" – the system that allows big business and the "one per cent" to influence elections and politics.
For Mr. Sanders's supporters, Ms. Clinton is seen as not liberal enough – and part of the problem. Her paid speeches for Goldman Sachs, after her years in the Obama administration, have been criticized by the Sanders campaign.
In New Hampshire, 69 per cent of Democratic voters identified as liberals – that is up 12 per cent from the 2008 Democratic primary in the state, according to an ABC News analysis. In 2016, this group backed Mr. Sanders by 59 per cent.
Nationwide, Democratic voters are increasingly describing their political views as liberal.
The fastest growth among Democratic voters self-identifying as liberals is among whites, millennials and voters with post-graduate educations – which partly explains why Mr. Sanders's message is getting so much traction in early voting states that are overwhelmingly white.
The road ahead – with contests in Nevada (Feb. 20) and South Carolina (Feb. 27) – will mean campaigning in states with more diverse groups of Democratic voters, which would appear to favour Ms. Clinton for several reasons.
Hispanic Democratic voters accounted for 15 per cent of caucus-goers in Nevada eight years ago. In the same year, during the South Carolina primary, black voters made up 55 per cent of Democratic voters.
Black and white Democratic voters have followed different trajectories when it comes to describing their views as liberal.
Whereas 50 per cent of white Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters described their views as liberal in 2015 – up from 28 per cent in 2000 – the figure among blacks was 27 per cent in 2015 compared to 25 per cent in 2000, according to the Pew Research Center.
Data for Democratic Hispanic voters does not go as far back, but the trend mirrors what is happening among black voters. Among Hispanics, 35 per cent described their views as liberal in 2015; 10 year earlier, it was also 35 per cent.
In other words, there is hope for Ms. Clinton in upcoming states like Nevada and South Carolina. Democratic voters there may be less predisposed to the liberal themes of Mr. Sanders.
A Public Policy Polling survey of South Carolina Democratic voters conducted after the Iowa caucuses and before the New Hampshire primary showed Ms. Clinton at 53 per cent support and Mr. Sanders at 32 per cent.
Clinton support among African-Americans is eye-popping.
Ms. Clinton leads among African-Americans with 82 per cent support compared to Mr. Sanders at 8 per cent. Voters may change their minds, as they take a closer look at the Vermont socialist. But the advantage, for now, goes to Ms. Clinton.
That is important for the Clinton camp. Ms. Clinton will need the enthusiastic support of key groups.
President Barack Obama addresses supporters during a rally at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles in 2010.
Jae C. Hong/AP
The Obama coalition – or what political analyst and author Ronald Brownstein calls the "coalition of the ascendant" – is made up of blacks, Latinos, Asians, millennials and educated white voters
From election to election, this coalition has been growing.
The Center for American Progress estimates that in the 2016 presidential election, the minority share of the vote will go from 27 to 29 per cent and the white share of the vote will fall from 73 to 71 per cent.
That is good news for the eventual Democratic nominee because minority voters were instrumental in Mr. Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012.
But can Ms. Clinton count on the full support of the coalition if she emerges as the eventual presidential nominee?
So far, key segments – like millennials and younger women – are not coalescing around her.