Democrats: Hillary Clinton versus Bernie Sanders
- 2,383: Number of delegates needed to win the nomination
- 462: Delegates up for grabs in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania on April 26.
- Hillary Clinton wins every state except Rhode Island
- Read Paul Koring’s primary night report: Trump, Clinton score big wins, move closer to presidential showdown
Hillary Clinton's near-sweep in the April 26 primaries widens her delegate lead and puts her in an even stronger position to clinch the Democratic nominating contest by the time the process wraps up in June and the party prepares for its national convention in July.
For Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, his strategy to win the presidential nomination is in pieces. The strategy has two parts:
- Pull off big wins in the remaining contests and overtake Ms. Clinton in pledged delegates;
- Go all the way to the national convention in Philadelphia in July and turn the superdelegates (the party elites who overwhelming back Ms. Clinton) into Sanders supporters.
The strategy was always going to be an uphill climb – and even more so now.
Put another way: Mr. Sanders would need to win 59 per cent of the delegates from April 26 until the last contest in June in order to overtake the front-runner in pledged delegates, according to analysis by Associated Press.
Because the Democratic Party's nominating process awards delegates based on a proportional system, Mr. Sanders would need to post double-digit wins in the contests that began Tuesday night with the Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania primaries – and keep up that pace in to June.
Just one problem: Tuesday night did not go the way of the Sanders campaign. Instead, it was a huge night for Ms. Clinton.
Hillary Clinton addresses supporters during a primary night event in Philadelphia after winning the Pennsilvania state primary.
EDUARDO MUNOZ ALVAREZ/AFP/Getty Images
Republicans: Donald Trump versus The Rest
- 1,237: Number of delegates needed to win the nomination
- 172: Delegates up for grabs in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania on April 26
- Donald Trump wins all five states by wide margins
- Read Paul Koring’s primary night report: Trump, Clinton score big wins, move closer to presidential showdown
Donald Trump can claim a five-state sweep in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania – and that momentum is on his side.
The Trump campaign now has wins in half a dozen northeastern U.S. states beginning with a resounding win his home state of New York on April 19.
That primary – and the five on Tuesday night – were widely viewed by political experts and observers as a key test for the Trump campaign following a loss in Wisconsin on April 3 that deepened doubts over Mr. Trump's ability to win 50 per cent (plus one) of the total delegates by the end of the nominating process in June and thereby avoid a contested convention.
His rivals are teaming up against him in upcoming contests – still hoping to block the front-runner's path to the magic number of 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination and forcing the possibility of a multiballot leadership convention in Cleveland in July.
There are still 502 delegates up for grabs in upcoming contests, or 20 per cent of the overall 2,472 Republican delegates.
As the Republican leadership race heads into its closing stages, the real-estate tycoon will be looking to carve out victories in upcoming contests and win enough delegates to lock down the presidential nomination. As of Wednesday morning, he is 287 short.
The victory speeches
Trump says: ‘I consider myself the presumptive nominee’
0:57
With big primary wins, Clinton nears Democratic nomination
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What comes next?
After spending much of April in the U.S. Northeast, the Republican leadership contest heads to the Midwest, followed by a trickle of contests for the balance of May and ending on a five-state show-stopper with California as the big prize. The Democratic leadership contest follows a similar calendar.
Much of the initial attention going forward will come to rest on Indiana. The state primary next Tuesday is the first test of an anti-Trump alliance involving Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich that was struck ahead of the April 26 primaries. Assuming the pact holds, here is a run-down of how it is expected to unfold:
- Indiana primary: 57 delegates up for grabs on May 3. Mr. Kasich said he will no longer campaign in this Midwest state – effectively giving Mr. Cruz an open path to take on Mr. Trump. Delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all basis. The Texas senator is within striking distance of Mr. Trump, according to polling.
- Oregon primary: 28 delegates up for grabs on May 17. In this northwestern state, the Cruz campaign said it would cut back on its campaigning and give Mr. Kasich a clear path as the main rival to Mr. Trump.
- New Mexico: 24 delegates up for grabs on June 7. If the Republican leadership race goes down to the last day – when a handful of states vote – the arrangement in New Mexico could be key. Mr. Kasich will face Mr. Trump in a state where the Cruz campaign has been pulling back.
In California, all three Republican candidates will be facing off. The state awards delegates state-wide and at the congressional level based on a winner-take-all system. It could end up being the exclamation mark on the Trump candidacy during the GOP nominating process. The billionaire business is leading his rivals, according to opinion polls.
Ted Cruz speaks at a rally in Knightstown, Indiana. Experts say he must win the state primary next Tuesday in order to have any hope of blocking Donald Trump and forcing a contested convention.
MICHAEL CONROY/AP
Republicans sailing into uncharted political waters
The Republican establishment is actively seeking a way to derail the front running Donald Trump from reaching the magic number of 1,237 delegates, Paul Koring reports.
Read the articleWe asked three experts to give their take on the outcome of the five-state April 26 primaries and what they mean for Donald Trump winning the party's nomination and avoiding a bitter and contested convention in Cleveland in July.
Mr. Kondik describes the billionaire candidate's wins in the northeastern states – including his home state of New York on April 19 – as impressive.
"These states were tailor-made for him, but he outperformed in all of them. Cruz and Kasich may be in danger of looking irrelevant to voters. We'll find out about Cruz next Tuesday," said Mr. Kondik.
Mr. Berg-Andersson points to three winner-take-all states that Ted Cruz must win in the remaining primary calendar: Nebraska (May 10) and South Dakota and Montana – the last two primaries falling on the last day of contests on June 7.
If Mr. Cruz loses any one of those states, Mr. Trump will emerge as the winner, explained Mr. Berg-Andersson.
If Mr. Cruz wins all three, then the Republican race comes down to California – also on the last day of primary contests – and how well Mr. Trump does in that state, he added.
In other words, California could have the final word on who is the Republican presidential nominee.
Mr. Olsen also thinks an Indiana primary win by Mr. Trump will effectively clinch the nomination for Mr. Trump.
"If he wins there, his odds of reaching 1,237 [delegates] by the end of the primary season is nearly 100%. If he does not, he still has a 60-40 chance of reaching that mark on June 7," he added.
John Kasich holds four-month-old Owen Nelm during his visit to the Penrose Diner in Philadelphia ahead of the Pennsylvania primary.
DAVID MAIALETTI/AP/The Philadelphia Inquirer
Crystal ball: What the experts say about Clinton clinching the nomination
Chelsea Clark, left, and Elizabeth Harvey, right, have their picture taken with Matt Schuler as he wears a homemade mask of Bernie Sanders before a Sanders rally in West Virginia on Tuesday.
SHOLTEN SINGER/AP/The Herald-Dispatch
The money race
Who wins when it comes to spending money?
The total spending by candidate campaigns, Super PACs and affiliated groups topped $1-billion (U.S.) heading into April, according to The Center for Public Integrity.
That is a staggering sum – two-thirds of which was spent by more than a dozen Republican candidates and their supporters. Many of those candidates, including big-spenders Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, have long since dropped out.
Here is a look at how much the remaining Democratic and Republican candidates and supporting groups have spent up until the end of March and how much they had at the beginning of April when it comes to cash in hand for the long and drawn-out nominating contests.