The world in 2015: Paul Koring on the battle to recapture the White House and Hillary Clinton’s anointment

In the U.S. presidential election, the Republican race is the one to watch

The finish line is still nearly two years and $2-billion (U.S.) in campaign spending away. But the next U.S. presidential contest gets under way in a matter of months – and the Republicans’ is the race to watch. They have their best shot at the White House in eight years.

Officially, the nomination is wide open, with as many as a dozen hopefuls jockeying for a chance to spend four years (at least) as the most powerful person on the planet.

Unofficially, all that changed recently when former Florida governor Jeb Bush disclosed that he will “actively explore the possibility of running.”

Suddenly, the 61-year-old Mr. Bush dominates the field – or at least the pundits’ speculation. The brother and the son of presidents, he is an acknowledged establishment heavyweight with unmatched fundraising power and a solid appeal to Hispanic voters, who will be vital to Republican hopes of regaining the Oval Office after the two-term occupancy of Barack Obama.

The right wing of the party is home to a half-dozen prospective candidates popular with purists and Tea Partiers, and appears to be ready for a showdown. But unless Mr. Bush changes his mind or stumbles early and badly, other establishment centrists now seem like long shots.

The first casualty may be fellow Floridian and former protégé Marco Rubio. “I have a lot of respect for Governor Bush and I think he’ll be a very formidable candidate if he decides to run,” says Mr. Rubio, who is widely considered unlikely to challenge his former mentor.

Christie’s conundrum

Other centre-right contenders, notably New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, also may want to think twice. Mr. Christie, a popular Republican in a state that has voted Democrat in every presidential election since 1992, has the sort of crossover appeal his party desperately needs to expand beyond its base.

But his highly visible co-operation with Mr. Obama after Superstorm Sandy and a simmering scandal over highway closures that smacks of political dirty trickery could derail his hopes.

Nevertheless, the corpulent Mr. Christie has undergone a stomach reduction and started dieting in search of a more telegenic presence. Last month, he also made a foray to Calgary, Toronto and Ottawa to give his foreign-policy skills a road test.

Another likely candidate, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, also flexed his policy muscles recently. Boldly backing the President’s decision to restore diplomatic ties with Cuba, he set off a nasty sparring match with Mr. Rubio. Just as he has differed with fellow Republicans over dealing with Iran, Mr. Paul pointed out that 50 years of isolation and embargo have failed to end communism on the island, infuriating the Cuban-American Mr. Rubio, who opposes a softer stance.

Once regarded as a libertarian and an isolationist (labels he has consistently rejected), Mr. Paul has been energetically seeking to broaden his appeal and that of his party. “I’m not saying we give up on what we believe in,” he says, “but we have to expand what we believe in.”

One thing most Republicans want to expand is their level of support among minorities because the party now risks being seen as seriously out of step with the nation’s changing demographics.

Hispanics are the largest (and fastest-growing) minority in the U.S. and, to retake the White House, the Republicans must attract at least as much support among them as George W. Bush did – roughly 44 per cent. In the last election, Mitt Romney drew just over half that – 27 per cent.

Not surprisingly, the party’s right-wing challengers share this concern. In fact, one Tea Party favourite – Alberta-born Senator Ted Cruz – has staked out Hispanic support as a key element in the conservative, religious and family-first coalition that he will attempt to fashion. His father was born in Cuba and, as a teen, supported Fidel Castro, but then fled to the U.S. just before the revolution.

Instrumental in leading the government shutdown in 2013, Mr. Cruz has irked Republican leaders as well with populist and uncompromising stances that have made him the party’s most impressive “outsider.” But he is more than just an ideological maverick. Born in Calgary (his parents worked as data specialists in the oil business), the junior Senator from Texas has a stellar background at Princeton and Harvard Law School (he was the first Hispanic to clerk for a chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court), and combines a grassroots appeal with a sophisticated command of issues.

Reagan started on the fringe

Conventional wisdom presumes that the party’s mainstream will defeat any right-wing insurgency, and recent polls show Mr. Bush with a commanding lead.

But over time, insurgents can evolve. When Ronald Reagan challenged Richard Nixon in 1968, he was regarded as a fringe right-winger. By 1980, he was defeating “establishment” champion George H.W. Bush for the nomination and preparing for two terms as president.

The coming primaries may herald the biggest showdown between centrist Republicans and the party’s right wing since then.

Hillary Clinton: ‘Space for her on Mount Rushmore’

Rarely has a candidate been so heavily favoured, so seemingly presumptive, so lauded by pundits and party faithful alike, as Hillary Clinton. Just about everyone expects her to seek, and win, the nomination as the Democratic candidate for the U.S. presidency in 2016.

Victory is seen as all but certain for the former first lady, two-term New York senator and primary rival whom President Barack Obama defeated in 2008 and made his secretary of state.

She hasn’t declared her intentions, but a book tour, a well-oiled pre-campaign team and slam-dunk poll numbers all point to an anointment, after a carefully staged announcement this spring.

“Forget about the comparisons to 2008. Hillary Clinton was only heavily favoured back then ... This time an overwhelming majority of both elite and rank-and-file Democrats appear to have reserved space for her visage on Mount Rushmore,” writes Larry Sabato, whose Crystal Ball newsletter and website have a reputation for political prognostication.

As Mr. Sabato notes, 57 per cent of voters in Democratic primaries are women, giving Ms. Clinton a significant edge.

Still, her candidacy is not without problems. For example, she is older – Mitch McConnell, the Republican Majority Leader in the Senate, calls her one of the “Golden Girls.” But the attacks would be far nastier in a real campaign because, by voting day, Ms. Clinton will have turned 69. Only Ronald Reagan was older (by almost a year) when he was elected.

Also, she has never won a tough election. Her senate campaigns in 2000 and 2006 were cakewalks in New York, an overwhelmingly Democratic state where Ms. Clinton, who had few ties there, was essentially gifted the seat by the retiring senator, Patrick Moynihan. In her only seriously contested race, against Mr. Obama in 2008, she seemed wooden and remote, made gaffe after gaffe, and then – famously – cried as her campaign crumbled in acrimony and disarray.

Ms. Clinton also has baggage. She may still be haunted by the 2012 embassy attack in Libya that killed a U.S. ambassador on her watch as secretary of state – just as she may be by the whole sordid impeachment affair involving husband Bill and his relations with an intern; and by the Clintons’ older, and still-unexplained, financial skeletons dating from their Arkansas days.

The hype may make Ms. Clinton seem unbeatable, but her path to the nomination will be easy only if she faces no tough competition.

Yet even among ardent supporters, there’s disquiet that an unbloodied battle for the nomination could leave her ill-prepared for the presidential campaign.