Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders is seen through the window of his plane on the tarmac at Signature Flight Support as he continues to campaign on Feb. 18, 2016, in Las Vegas, Nevada.Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Nevada and South Carolina will define whether Bernie Sanders poses a genuine threat to presumptive front-runner Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, or if the septuagenarian's astonishing appeal to idealistic and mostly young people is a short-lived leftist insurgency.
Democrats hold party caucuses Saturday in Nevada and a primary in South Carolina a week later.
After impressive showings in Iowa and New Hampshire – both small, overwhelmingly white, non-urban states, ideally-suited to Mr. Sanders in-person, refreshingly rumpled campaign style – the Vermont senator must next show he can deliver in Nevada, where Hispanics are a major and growing part of the Democratic base, and where as recently as a month ago the former first lady had a commanding 25-point lead.
The most recent CNN-ORC poll in Nevada, released this week with a small sample size and a six-percentage-point margin of error, showed the two Democratic contenders were neck-and-neck. So the Silver State may become a battleground instead of the easy win Clinton operatives were touting. But Nevada polls can be unreliable because the state allows anyone of voting age to register right up to the day of the caucus.
"Clinton should win because of the diverse electorate," said Jon Ralston, the state's foremost political commentator. "But the Sanders momentum has moved Nevada from a can't-miss to a could-kill state for Clinton," he wrote earlier this week.
Nevada, like Iowa, holds caucuses, not primaries, so turnout has additional challenges. Getting voters to spend hours clustered in school gyms and town halls is made more difficult in a state such as Nevada, which was hard hit by the housing bust that cost thousands of residents their homes. Voter lists are woefully out-of-date, and both Ms. Clinton, 68, and Mr. Sanders, 74, have fielded small armies of volunteers in an attempt to identify, locate and persuade likely supporters to actually go to caucus.
And each side has spent an estimated $4-million (U.S.) bombarding the state with television ads.
Mr. Sanders, fresh from delivering a 22-point thumping of Ms. Clinton in New Hampshire, is seeking to make inroads among young Hispanics, hoping to add them to the millennials, both male and female, who have flocked to his left-wing movement.
"We were way down here," Mr. Sanders said. "Who thought that we could win Nevada? If we get a decent turnout here, I think we've got a real shot."
Barely a quarter of registered Democrats turned out eight years ago despite the bitter slugfest between Ms. Clinton and Barack Obama. About one-third of voters are minorities, and getting out the vote, especially among the young, will be crucial to Mr. Sanders's hopes for an upset.
"If Bernie logs a win in Nevada, it becomes a different conversation about his creditability as a nominee and Hillary's credibility as a campaigner," said Andres Ramirez, a veteran Democratic operative in the state who's backing Clinton.
Nevada – 28-per-cent Hispanic, 10 per cent African-American and 8-per-cent Asian – is already among the most diverse states and was moved up in the election calendar because it was geographically and demographically distinct from other early states.
Eight years ago, Ms. Clinton narrowly edged Mr. Obama in the popular vote but the battle was ugly, with lawsuits and accusations flying. But eking out a win in Nevada wasn't sufficient to salvage Ms. Clinton's 2008 campaign, and it may not be again in 2016.
This time, Ms. Clinton, armed with more money and many of the state's political operatives, started early, visiting Nevada last year and pitching particularly to the state's burgeoning Hispanic population by promising to go even further than Mr. Obama in providing a path to lawful residency for the huge number of Hispanics unlawfully in the United States. Many of them have children who are citizens or were brought to the U.S. when they were children.
But facing a late surge by Mr. Sanders, the Clinton campaign is busily playing down expectations – seeking to limit the damage and undermine a media narrative that would emerge if she ended up winless in the first three states to vote.