A moment of truth: Can the Republican Party block Donald Trump?
U.S. Election 2016
A moment of truth: Can the Republican Party block Donald Trump?
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a town hall meeting at the Tampa Convention Center in Florida a day before the Republican primary on March 15.
BRIAN BLANCO/Getty Images
March 15 is decision day in U.S. politics. Five key states are holding contests and two questions are central. On the Republican side: Can Donald Trump be blocked? On the Democratic side: Can Bernie Sanders rack up big wins? Here's your essential guide
This article was published more than 8 years ago. Some information may no longer be current.
It is another Tuesday in March – and once again, a pivotal moment in the making of the next U.S. president.
A slew of states voted on March 1 and a bunch voted on March 8. But March 15 is going to be big because it could see front-runners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton tightening their grip on the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations.
If they lock in those nominations eventually, they would face off against each other on Nov. 8 in the presidential election.
But clinching the nomination means knocking out some rather persistent and resilient opponents. And it also means winning the majority of delegates.
March 15 state contests and number of delegates at stake
CONTESTS
REPUBLICAN DELEGATES
DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES
Florida
99
246
Illinois
69
182
Missouri
52
84
North Carolina
72
121
Ohio
66
159
New York Times
Delegates from winner-take-all contests in bold.
What the polls say
Florida and Ohio are the big prizes. For Democratic and Republican candidates, the two states provide the biggest potential haul of delegates. And that is particularly the case on the Republican side: Both states are winner-take-all. In other words, the candidate who wins the most votes ends up scooping all the delegates. So far, the Republican primaries have awarded delegates from each state contests based on a proportional system.
In Florida, Donald Trump is dominating, according to an average of polls.
Republican Presidential hopeful Donald Trump speaks during a rally in West Chester, Ohio.
BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images
But in Ohio, these are the kind of numbers the Republican establishment – so panicked by the inevitability of the Trump candidacy ever since his resounding Super Tuesday wins on March 1 – would like to see more: a non-Trump candidate who is giving the billionaire real estate tycoon a run for his money.
Then again, Governor John Kasich is on home turf. It is a must-win for the candidate, who calls himself the only adult in the Republican presidential field.
Let's take a closer look at the Democratic contests on the same day.
A week ago, Bernie Sanders's surprise win in the Michigan primary – a state Hillary Clinton was thought to be leading in – started another round of questions and doubts about Ms. Clinton's candidacy.
In Florida, Ms. Clinton is poised for a strong showing.
But in Ohio, the Sanders campaign is running closer and could pull off a surprise win.
People wait to hear US presidential hopeful Senator Bernie Sanders speak during a rally in Youngstown, Ohio.
BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images
What the delegate totals say on the Democratic side
2,383: Number of delegates needed to win the nomination
691: delegates up for grabs on March 15
What the delegate totals say on the Republican side
1,237: Number of delegates needed to win the nomination
367: delegates up for grabs on March 15
What's at stake for the campaigns
Hillary Clinton has the clear advantage in Florida and North Carolina, according to polls. In Illinois, Ohio and Missouri, the races are tighter – and Bernie Sanders can pull out important wins.
A mixed result, with each candidate winning a few states, means that the Democratic presidential primaries continue through March and into April.
If Mr. Sanders can win Ohio – and add a win in another state – that will no doubt energize his campaign. But on the key issue of delegate math, Mr. Sanders is at a disadvantage because of the wide lead Ms. Clinton holds in overall delegates thanks to her popularity among the 712 superdelegates.
Democratic U.S. Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton embraces Dolores Huerta, a labor leader as she attends a workshop meeting at La Casa The Resurrection Project, a immigrant community center, during a campaign stop in Chicago Illinois.
CARLOS BARRIA/REUTERS
On the Republican side, it is the moment of truth: Will the Republican Party establishment manage to block Donald Trump’s path to the Republican presidential nomination?
The party elites have had two weeks to bring Mr. Trump down a notch or two. There have been attack ads and strident words from the likes of Mitt Romney.
The strategy to slow Mr. Trump’s momentum has hinged on denying him wins in Ohio and Florida – both of them winner-take-all states.
But Mr. Trump is poised to win Florida and put Senator Marco Rubio’s candidacy on death notice.
In Ohio, the contest is too close to call – with Governor John Kasich poised to play the spoiler. It is not impossible that Mr. Trump could still win in the Buckeye State.
In other states, Mr. Trump is leading – although some of those races are tight. The overall picture gives him a good shot at walking away on Tuesday night with the most delegates in his column.
March 15 may yield a truth the Republican Party does not want to face: Mr. Trump on a clear path to eventually winning the Republican nomination with the majority of delegates backing him once state contests wrap up in June.
The Globe in Florida and Ohio
Follow reporters Adrian Morrow and Adam Radwanski on Twitter as they follow the campaigns, and be sure to read their reports from two key states.
Donald Trump campaign rallies have taken a rather nasty turn and his rivals have accused him of inciting violence,
as the Globe's Adrian Morrow reports.
Democratic and Republican opponents argue that his rhetoric is to blame.
