President Barack Obama, left, stands with Maryland gubernatorial candidate Anthony Brown during a campaign rally at Wise High School, on Sunday, Oct. 19, 2014, in Upper Marlboro, Md.Evan Vucci/The Associated Press
Barack Obama's Democratic Party, dragged down by the U.S. President's sagging approval ratings, will lose vital Senate seats in Tuesday's midterm elections.
The question is: How many?
Control of the Senate, held by the Democrats heading into the elections, hangs in the balance.
While U.S. history is replete with instances of major reforms during times when a president of one party fashioned sweeping deals with a Congress controlled by the other, the bitter, partisan divide that currently gridlocks Washington makes that unlikely.
If the Republicans can take the Senate – they need a net gain of six seats – and add to an already-commanding majority in the House of Representatives, then Mr. Obama may spend the next two years as a lame-duck president wearing out White House veto pens.
A Republican Congress will seek to overturn Obamacare and try to force Mr. Obama to approve the Keystone XL pipeline. Without a veto-proof majority in the Senate – and the Republicans won't get that – the President isn't likely to concede on health care, the cornerstone of his legacy.
As more than 100 million U.S. citizens trek to the polls Tuesday to elect thousands of state and local officials and takes sides on scores of propositions, the President isn't on the ballot. But what Mr. Obama has done – and what he hasn't – casts a long shadow over the election; its outcome will shape his legacy.
An electorate grimly coping with fearful realities – including a relaunched war in the Middle East, this time against Islamic State's elusive and transnational jihadis; the spectre of Ebola; a still-sputtering economy where the average American is no richer that a decade ago; and a deep and abiding loathing of politicians in general – is already girding for the 2016 presidential election.
On Tuesday, voters will elect 36 senators, all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 36 state governors.
Only a minority of races are closely contested and the latest polls buoyed Republican hopes, In Iowa, Joni Ernst, who boasted in a television ad that she learned how to castrate hogs as a farm girl, which made her the perfect choice to cut the pork in Washington, was seven points ahead in a race many regard as a litmus test for the nation.
In several states with toss-up races, final polls showed Republicans ahead.
Mr. Obama, who has avoided campaign appearances at the most-contested races because party strategists and Democratic candidates regarded his presence as a liability, has ventured out on the hustings only infrequently and then only to states where he can do no harm.
"Despite all the cynicism America is making progress," Mr. Obama insisted in his final campaign showing on Sunday. Then his blue-and-white Boeing 747 broke down and a smaller backup was pressed into service as Air Force One, a fitting metaphor for a president who six in 10 Americans say is leading the nation in the wrong direction.
"Don't stay home," the President urged. "Don't let somebody else choose your future for you." That last-ditch appeal was aimed mainly at African-Americans and young voters – two blocs that voted overwhelmingly for Mr. Obama's siren call of Hope and Change and twice sent him to the White House. Both groups, traditionally turn out in far lower numbers for midterm elections.
Vice-President Joe Biden, who could hold the tie-breaking vote if the Senate is split 50-50, was predicting the Democratic Party would hang on.
"I don't agree with the odds-makers," he said Monday. "We're gonna keep the Senate."
A Senate majority isn't the only Republican goal. The party hopes to add to its 233 seats in the House of Representatives. If it can wrest a dozen from the Democrats who currently hold 199, it would be the largest Republican majority since Harry Truman was president a half-century ago.
The biggest focus in the most-expensive midterms ever – more than $4-billion (U.S.) was spent, most of it by out-of-state billionaires on both sides of the partisan divide – was control of the Senate.
And that outcome may not be known for months.
In two toss-up states, Georgia and Louisiana, run offs are required if no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of the vote on Tuesday. With third-party candidates running in both states, and polls showing the major parties neck-and-neck, voters may be headed back to the polls in Louisiana a month from now and in Georgia early in January.