The number of people fleeing by water to Greece from Turkey since the start of 2015 has hit the one-million mark.STR/AFP / Getty Images
The European Union, facing perhaps the biggest crisis in its history, has two days in which to agree on a solution to the hundreds of thousands of refugees and economic migrants overwhelming the continent.
The number of people fleeing by water to Greece from Turkey since the start of 2015 has hit the one-million mark, the United Nations refugee organization UNHCR reported Wednesday. Many of them, and hundreds of thousands of others, have made their way as far north as Scandinavia looking for refuge. More than one million have landed in Germany alone, while thousands of others are stuck at border crossings, unable to move.
The 1,500 people who survived fording the raging and frigid river to cross to Macedonia from Greece on Monday were trucked back to Greece on Tuesday and unceremoniously dumped back in the makeshift camp from where they started.
The reaction to all of this migration is threatening to tear apart the union. Eight countries have now closed their borders to fellow member states, contrary to the EU's open-borders policy; anti-immigration parties are suddenly flourishing, and with them come more nationalistic agendas.
However, the only proposal on the table at this two-day Brussels summit depends on a mercurial Turkish president to implement it and flies in the face of the very human-rights laws that unite these European countries. "What is at stake tomorrow and the day after tomorrow is whether we can get a deal that, for the first time, gives us a chance to get a sustainable, pan-European solution to the refugee issue," German Chancellor Angela Merkel told the Bundestag on Wednesday, the eve of the summit.
Turkey holds the key to this solution, since the idea is to offload "irregular" migrants on the country, in exchange for which the EU will take off Turkey's hands the same number of legitimate asylum-seeking refugees.
In addition, the tentative deal arrived at last week by Ms. Merkel and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, along with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, calls for the EU to ease visa requirements for Turkish citizens, speed up Ankara's bid for EU membership and pay out an undisclosed sum of money – in addition to the €3-billion previously committed to assist Turkey in handling the 2.7 million refugees already on Turkish soil.
The trouble is, many EU leaders are wary of dealing with Turkey these days. They are uncomfortable with what they view as the increasingly authoritarian nature of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish government's takeover of the country's most popular newspaper, the arrest of hundreds of Turkish journalists and the heavy-handed crackdown on Kurdish dissent.
This is not the sort of state they want to see as an EU member.
While insisting that an arrangement with Turkey is vital if Europe is to be spared from the continuing migrant chaos, Ms. Merkel assured Germany and her fellow EU citizens that there will be no reneging on European principles.
The EU, she said "will be firm in communicating our beliefs to Turkey on issues like press freedom or dealings with the Kurds."
However, it takes just one dissenting voice among the 28 member countries for the deal to be struck down. Cyprus, one of the smallest EU states, could be that one. It objects to Turkey's occupation of northern Cyprus – a holdover from the 1974 conflict between Greek and Turkish Cypriots – and insists that Turkey recognize the Cypriot government by opening its ports and airports to Cypriot traffic.
As of Wednesday night, the issue was still unresolved. "We still have work to do before tomorrow's summit," Ms. Merkel said.
The proposed solution
For every "irregular migrant" (that is, someone without a legitimate reason for seeking asylum) who is returned to Turkey from the shores of Greece, one legitimate Syrian refugee currently in Turkey will be settled in Europe.
The aim of this convoluted system is to smash the business model of the people-smugglers and give legitimate refugees an incentive to stay put in Turkey, waiting their turn to enter Europe legally.
How it would work
Migrants coming ashore in Greece will be interviewed and sorted on arrival, with those considered to be true refugees (mostly from Syria, Afghanistan or Iraq) being permitted to remain and file an application for asylum. All others will be returned to Turkey. Some 2,000 migrants arrive every day in Greece; 25 per cent or more are likely to be considered irregular.
In Turkey, with the supervision of the UN refugee agency, these people will again be sorted and those deemed to be irregular or economic migrants from certain approved countries will be transported home. The process, it is hoped, will regularize the flow of refugees into Europe.
The legal concerns
The solution calls for mass returns of migrants to Turkey, yet the European Convention on Human Rights expressly prohibits collective expulsion of foreigners. Under international law, each person's case must be heard on an individual basis. That is clearly not part of the solution.
Even if the expulsion were deemed legal, the transfer can only be to a country that is considered "safe."
Yet only one EU member state, Bulgaria, considers Turkey to be "safe." Indeed, each year, European tribunals recognize a substantial number of Turks fleeing their homeland as having legitimate reasons to seek refuge in Europe. At the very least, Greece will have to change its laws and recognize Turkey as a safe haven.
Turkey is not a full member of the Geneva Conventions and does not offer asylum to Syrians, only a lesser form of international protection. And when it comes to other groups such as Afghans and Eritreans, they don't even have that option. It is unclear what Turkey would do with them.