President Barack Obama, left, stands with Maryland gubernatorial candidate Anthony Brown during a campaign rally at Wise High School, on Sunday, Oct. 19, 2014, in Upper Marlboro, Md.Evan Vucci/The Associated Press
Democratic control of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance and with it President Barack Obama's hopes of getting much done in his last two years in the Oval Office.
But the once-electrifying campaigner-in-chief who ignited a country with his passionate calls for hope and change has been mostly absent for this fall's midterm elections. With his record-low approval ratings, Mr. Obama knows he's toxic and Democratic candidates are racing to distance themselves from him as they attempt to avert defeat.
"Here's the bottom line: We've got a tough map," Mr. Obama admitted. "A lot of the states that are contested this time are states that I didn't win. So some of the candidates there, you know, it is difficult for them to have me in the state because the Republicans will use that to try to fan Republican turnout."
Which may explain why Mr. Obama hasn't campaigned for a single Democratic Senate candidate this year, according to an appearances database compiled by CBS. The President regularly shows up for Democratic fundraisers among well-heeled partisans in San Francisco, Chicago or New York, but they are invariably private, high-priced affairs.
On the rare occasions when he has ventured onto the campaign trail, such as last weekend when he stumped for Anthony Brown, the Democratic candidate for governor in Maryland, many in the supposedly partisan crowd were streaming for the exits halfway through Mr. Obama's 11-minute speech.
Mr. Brown, an African-American way ahead in a state that voted solidly for Mr. Obama in 2012, could afford to be seen with the President. But the carefully choreographed event next door to the Barack Obama Elementary School in Upper Marlboro was so lacklustre that it prompted The Washington Post's political analyst to pen a commentary titled "Obama, the pariah president."
The President claims he's unfazed by the cold shoulders.
"This isn't about my feelings being hurt," he told Rev. Al Sharpton, the Baptist minister and African-American rights activist, in a radio interview Monday, adding he understands why embattled Democratic candidates need to distance themselves. "I tell them – I said, 'You do what you need to do to win.'" It doesn't matter, Mr. Obama claims, because even those candidates running away from him back his policies deep down. "These are all folks who vote with me; they have supported my agenda in Congress."
That's not how it sounds in states where races are close and the President is a liability.
"I'm not Barack Obama," asserts Kentucky Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, as she calmly blasts clay pigeons to smithereens with a shotgun in a campaign ad. "I disagree with him on guns, coal and the EPA," she adds, referring to the Environmental Protection Agency. Mr. Grimes calls herself a Clinton Democrat and flatly refuses to say if she voted for Mr. Obama in 2004 or 2008.
"I disagree with Obama plenty," Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor tells voters, pointedly noting he backs the Keystone XL pipeline, opposes greenhouse-gas curbs and the President's efforts to impose tougher gun control.
In North Carolina, another of the seven states won by Republican Mitt Romney two years ago where Democratic candidates are fighting to survive, Senator Kay Hagan has a ready list for voters. "The Keystone pipeline: I disagree with the President," she says. "Trade deals: I have voted against trade deals, because they send too many jobs overseas, and I've voted against my party's budget because it had too deep of cuts to the military."
Alaska Senator Mark Begich openly says he doesn't want the President stumping for him and promises voters he will continue to be a "thorn in his [backside]" if he gets re-elected.
Distance and disagreement may not be enough. With less than two weeks to go, the major election models project Republicans will win at least the six additional Senate seats they need to seize control of both houses of Congress. Nate Silver's widely followed FiveThirtyEight site gives Republicans a 62-per-cent chance of a Senate majority. Leo, The New York Times statistical analysis, gives Republicans a 66-per-cent chance. The Washington Post's Election Lab model gives Republicans a 93-percent probability of a Senate majority.
"Overall, it is indisputable that Republicans will have more critical victories to celebrate than Democrats when all the ballots are counted," Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, wrote in his latest Crystal Ball, "and they have a strong and increasing chance to control the next Senate."
Still, much can happen in the last days of a campaign and a bad gaffe or election surprise could easily swing some of the closer races.
And the Senate outcome may not be known on Election Day, or even the morning after. In at least two states, Georgia and Louisiana, election rules require a runoff if no candidate garners a majority on Nov. 4, and the closeness of the races along with the presence of third-party candidates make runoffs likely.
In Louisiana, Senator Mary Landrieu is fighting to survive in another Red state. In Georgia, Michelle Nunn is the Democratic challenger in one of the few races where the President's party hopes to snatch a previously held Republican seat. Ms. Nunn is running ads featuring her standing alongside former President George H.W. Bush to counter accusations that she is an Obama acolyte.
A Louisiana runoff would be Dec 6. In Georgia, if a runoff is required, it won't be until Jan 6, 2015.