The greatest show this summer could very well take place in Cleveland, Ohio, at the Republican Party national convention.
A convention that has been more coronation than contest in past years – where Republicans officially pick their standard-bearer for the presidential election – is shaping up to be a political circus that could easily descend into chaos in 2016.
There is a chance that no Republican candidate will win the 1,237 delegates – a simple majority of the 2,472 in total – needed to clinch the presidential nomination when state contests finish on June 7.
That could trigger a contested convention – and the possibility of more than one ballot when delegates gather in Cleveland beginning July 18.
But between now and an acrimonious party convention, there are still several primaries that could tilt the overall leadership race in one candidate's favour.
"The conventions are essentially like TV movies now. They're just made for television events, big rah-rah parties for the party that hosts it. We don't know how the public would react to a convention that doesn't look like that because we haven't had one in such a long time," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at University of Virginia Center for Politics.
The odds: Betting on a contested convention
Before the Republican primary in New York on April 19, we asked three experts on the Republican presidential nominating process to walk us through scenarios that range from Donald Trump sailing to the nomination, to the real-estate mogul dropping out of the race and announcing an independent bid.
In between are half a dozen other possibilities that include a lot of convention turmoil. But before diving into those scenarios, here is a reality check on the overall likelihood of a contested convention.
That probability is up after Texas Senator Ted Cruz won the Wisconsin primary (April 5) – where he showed that he could win the very conservative and the somewhat conservative Republican voter, according to Mr. Olsen.
Up until then, he was only dominating the very conservative segment. "It would almost be as if in the Conservative Party of Canada you had somebody who was very popular in Alberta but couldn't win the Toronto suburbs to save his life," he said.
The path, according to Mr. Kondik, runs through New York state.
If Mr. Trump can win the "lion's share" of delegates – or about 80 or 85 of the state's 95 delegates in the April 19 primary – he could avoid a contested convention, said Mr. Kondik.
Mr. Trump has a shot at achieving that by winning more than 50 per cent of voters in enough districts. In that scenario, the rules say Mr. Trump can sweep all the delegates in those districts.
UPDATE AFTER NEW YORK PRIMARY: The real estate billionaire trounced his rivals in New York on April 19, winning at least 89 delegates.
A bunch of northeastern U.S. states votes on April 26, a week after the New York primary. Contests in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania favour Mr. Trump and could put the front-runner on the path to 1,237, said Mr. Berg-Andersson.
The scenarios: 8 ways to game the Republican leadership race
1. Mr. Trump sails to nomination at convention
Donald Trump celebrates winning the South Carolina primary in February.
JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images
Donald Trump gets the delegates he needs in order to become the presumptive nominee – a scenario which experts think is still very possible.
The magic number for the real-estate billionaire is 1,237 – a simple majority of the total Republican delegates who will be at the national party convention in July in Cleveland. The goal is to win those delegates before the state primary contests wrap-up in June.
If Donald Trump is able to do that – with the help of upcoming contests in Trump-friendly northeastern U.S. states – he arrives in Cleveland as the presumptive presidential nominee and could very well leave town as the Republican party's presidential candidate after a majority of delegates officially pledge their support on the convention floor.
This is the Trump campaign's dream scenario – a bumpy, but largely inevitable path, to the nomination. But this has hardly been a textbook Republican presidential campaign – and there could be a myriad of twists and turns.
2. Convention rule change upends Trump bid
Delegates observe a prayer at the closing of the Republican national convention in Tampa, Florida, in 2012. There is some expectation that the 2016 convention may not be as harmonious.
DAVID GOLDMAN/The Associated Press
Donald Trump gets the delegates he needs in order to become the presumptive nominee before arriving at the convention. But at the convention, he loses on the first ballot.
This scenario is hard to imagine – in large part because delegates are generally bound to a specific presidential candidate on the first ballot depending on the results of the primary or caucus in their home state.
"If they are unbound on the first ballot they can vote for whoever they want. You have an open convention, you don't know where they're going to go," said Mr. Berg-Andersson.
But in order to give delegates free rein, the rules will need to state that explicitly. Right now, there is competition among the campaigns to get their supporters on the 112-person rules committee that will meet ahead of the convention.
Changing the rules ahead of, or during, the convention in order to block Donald Trump would be controversial – and would likely benefit Ted Cruz.
"If a party did that, it might win the battle but lose the war. That would be perceived – and rightly so – as against the spirit, if not the actual letter, of democracy," said Mr. Olsen.
3. Primaries wrap-up, Trump short by 200 delegates
Remnants after a Donald Trump rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on April 13th.
JEFF SWENSEN/Getty Images
If at the end of primary contests on June 7, Donald Trump is short by as many as 200 delegates of the 1,237 goal, the Republican party convention will almost certainly be contested and chaotic.
Without a majority of delegates in his corner, it is hard to see how Mr. Trump can make up the shortfall at the convention, explained Mr. Kondik.
"I think if he's short by 200 he probably won't be the nominee – let's put it that way," said Mr. Kondik.
The first ballot roll call of state delegations will be followed by a second ballot, and possibly more, until a candidate wins 1,237 delegates.
The delegates – and their actual candidate leanings – is the big question mark.
"So you may have a lot of people who are Cruz supporters sitting in the seats from South Carolina. And yes, they'll vote for Trump in the first ballot because they're required to. But that doesn't mean they're going to vote for him on subsequent ballots," said Mr. Berg-Andersson.
That anti-Trump movement is likely to grow during the ballot process.
Only five per cent of delegates are unbound on the first ballot, but that increases to 60 per cent on the second ballot and 80 per cent on the third ballot, Mr. Kondik explained. "That's where you could see Trump lose support on ballots that come after the first," he said.
It's not all bad news for Mr. Trump. "I would expect the one who proclaims that he's the master of the art of the deal, to spend the month and a half between the last primary and the convention making the best deal he can," said Mr. Olsen.
Possible deals include persuading Senator Ted Cruz or Ohio Governor John Kasich to be the vice-presidential nominee, he added.
4. Trump short by 50 delegates, battle looms
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump smiles during a campaign stop in Bluffton, South Carolina in February.
MATT ROURKE/AP
This is the "nearly there but not quite" scenario.
"If it looks like Trump is within shouting distance of 1,237: 1,160, 1,180, 1,200, especially the closer he is to 1,237, the Republican party leadership is going to have make a decision. Are they willing to live with him as the nominee?" said Mr. Berg-Andersson. "That's the question. And nobody knows the answer right now."
Forcing a multi-ballot contest after Mr. Trump falls just shy of the 1,237 majority would be a high-risk strategy that could tear the party apart.
But it is not entirely far-fetched – and also depends on how Mr. Trump fares in the home stretch of the primary contests in June, said Mr. Kondik.
A struggling front-runner posting a weak finish could give the anti-Trump movement the justification it needs to deny Mr. Trump the nomination, he added.
All experts agree that there is a more likely outcome.
The Trump campaign would look to corral unbound delegates from territories like the U.S. Virgin Islands and the rare states that have unbound delegates. Fifty-four of Pennsylvania's 71 delegates are unbound – and free to vote according to their preference on the first ballot, said Mr. Berg-Andersson.
5. Ted Cruz wins on second convention ballot
Ted Cruz, speaking on the night of his homestate Texas primary win on March 1st.
DAVID J. PHILLIP/AP
Senator Ted Cruz winning the Republican nomination depends on two key factors: a stronger than expected finish in the primary contests, and engineering the selection of delegates and convention rules in his favour.
Five states vote on the last day of primaries: New Mexico, Montana, South Dakota, New Jersey and California. Mr. Cruz won't win New Jersey – a state Mr. Trump is expected to carry, said Mr. Kondik. "But if Cruz wins the four other states and is rising at the end, as opposed to Trump… I think that matters for the nomination," he added.
The Cruz camp is also actively involved in state, county and district conventions – where delegates are being selected.
"That's what the Cruz people are trying to gain. They're saying: voters may like Donald Trump but the people who show up for the Republican convention, they'll vote for Ted Cruz. So they're trying to get Cruz supporters put in Trump delegate slots," said Mr. Olsen.
Many of those delegates may be bound by state rules to vote for Mr. Trump on the first ballot. But on subsequent ballots, they are free to back whom they wish.
Still, there are no guarantees. Mr. Olsen offers the fictitious example of one delegate.
"Let's say Ted Cruz thinks Mabel Smith is a great delegate from Louisiana and she gets selected. And then on July 25 she decides that Ted's just not her cup of tea and that John Kasich's her guy. There's nothing Ted can do at that point to remove her," he explained – short of handing her the keys to his Mercedes, he added with a chuckle.
Delegates have served the role of "window dressing" at past political conventions – essentially there to applaud the speeches, explains Mr. Berg-Andersson. This time, they could be making crucial decisions.
"You wonder how prepared these people are going to be to handle this type of responsibility, and how they will respond to any pressure from campaign operatives," he said.
6. John Kasich wins on third convention ballot
Ohio Governor John Kasich celebrates his Ohio primary victory on March 15.
BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images
Ohio Governor John Kasich's strategy to win the Republican nomination hinges on one outcome: convention chaos.
In that scenario, Donald Trump fails to win on the first ballot and Ted Cruz comes up short on the second ballot. As delegates see that Mr. Trump cannot win and contemplate the most conservative U.S. senator as the party's nominee, they will turn to Mr. Kasich – so the thinking of the Kasich camp goes, according to Mr. Olsen.
The one-time Washington lawmaker has pitched himself as the antidote to the increasingly dark Republican presidential race – offering himself as the "prince of light and hope" and only real candidate who can beat Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and help Republicans hold on to the U.S. Senate.
His opponents may try to block any chance of a Kasich surge at the convention.
A rule put in place before the 2012 Republican convention required a candidate to have the support of a majority of delegates from eight states in order for his or her name to be put forward as a candidate.
That rule maybe reintroduced for the 2016 convention – although experts agree that it would not entirely rule out Kasich's chances, or another outside candidate stepping in.
7. Outside GOP candidate steps in at convention
Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan waves as he takes the stage to accept the nomination at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida in 2012.
MIKE SEGAR/REUTERS
This is the Paul Ryan scenario – an establishment Republican candidate stepping in, becoming presidential nominee, and rescuing the party's chances of winning the presidential election in November.
The U.S. Speaker of the House of Representatives and 2012 vice presidential candidate has said he wants no part of the Republican presidential leadership race.
But increasingly his name is being mentioned by commentators and pundits as the consensus choice in the event of convention chaos.
"I think that's a fanciful dream – that someone is going to step in without running in any primary and is going to win," said Mr. Olsen. Such a candidate would have no democratic legitimacy, he added.
8. Mr. Trump lashes out at GOP, vows independent bid
Donald Trump reads the lyrics of Al Wilson’s song “The Snake” during campaign event in Bethpage, New York ahead of the April 19 primary in that state.
CARLO ALLEGRI/REUTERS
Donald Trump has complained loudly about the unfairness of the nominating process, calling it "crooked."
His complaint in a nutshell: he gets more votes, wins more state contests and delegates, but the Ted Cruz campaign is stealing his delegates.
This is only partly true.
When Mr. Trump wins a particular state – and is awarded a certain number of delegates – the actual delegates who will travel to the convention are picked later at the state level. Those delegates are still bound to vote for Mr. Trump. But if it is a multi-ballot convention, they are likely unbound in the second ballot and free to vote as they please.
The Cruz camp has been out-hustling the Trump campaign at these congressional district level conventions – and making sure that Cruz supporters get picked as delegates.
If that continues, expect a Trump-size tantrum from the front-runner. He may argue that the nominating process is rigged against him and announce an independent bid.
"A that point his delegates are unbound – and then the question is who are the delegates going to go to. You can't predict that because you'd have to know the identities of those people – are they the sort of people who would prefer Cruz or Kasich?" said Mr. Olsen.
THE HISTORY OF CONTESTED, MULTI-BALLOT CONVENTIONS
Third ballot winner: A lei about his shoulders, Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York smiles at cheering delegates as he appears at the convention hall in Philadelphia in 1948.
AP
Contested conventions are nothing new in U.S. politics.
According to Pew Research, in 60 Republican and Democratic conventions between 1868 and 1984, 18 presidential candidates won after multiple ballots; another 25 conventions happened under some sort of uncertainty and organized opposition.
The research points to why contested conventions ought to be avoided. Of the 18 Republican and Democratic presidential candidates chosen in multi-ballot conventions, seven were eventually elected president.
The last Republican multi-ballot contest took place in 1948 – with Thomas E. Dewey winning on the third ballot. He would go on to lose the general election against Harry S. Truman.
A TRUMP DIGEST: A SELECTION OF THE GLOBE'S REPORTING
