Politics Briefing: Trump links tariffs and NAFTA

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Good morning,

Canadian envoys are urging the White House to drop a planned increase on steel and aluminum tariffs, but their calls may be falling on deaf ears. The measures from President Donald Trump are meant to be targeted at China and other rivals of the U.S., but Canada is the largest supplier of the metals and will be hit hard. Mr. Trump tweeted this morning that Canada won't get an exemption from the tariffs unless a "fair" NAFTA deal is reached.

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Chris Hannay in Ottawa, Mayaz Alam in Toronto and James Keller in Vancouver. If you're reading this on the web or someone forwarded this email newsletter to you, you can sign up for Politics Briefing and all Globe newsletters here. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.

TODAY'S HEADLINES

Scientists are raising concerns with the government's proposed impaired-driving measures for when cannabis is legalized, because of the very different ways that the drug's active ingredients go through the human body compared to alcohol.

Mandatory-minimum sentences are being inconsistently applied across Canada as some get struck down in some jurisdictions, while remaining in others.

People from outside B.C. who own vacation homes in the province continue to raise concerns about a new tax designed to target what the B.C. government describes as property speculation. The 2-per-cent property tax is aimed at foreign and domestic speculators, but vacation home owners say they're unfairly being swept up in the tax. The provincial government appears to have little sympathy for such owners, saying they should just rent those properties out.

Short-term detox programs should not be the default approach to opioid addiction, according to a new Canadian guideline that says patients should instead be treated with prescribed medication. The guidelines, published in the CMAJ medical journal, says opioid addiction should be treated as a chronic disease, similar to diabetes or hypertension.

Washington state's plan to ban open-ocean fish farms is prompting advocates to call on Ottawa and the B.C. government to do the same.

Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister says this month's provincial budget will move the province closer to balance, while cutting taxes and fees that residents pay.

Italy is set to see political chaos after yesterday's election resulted in no clear winner. Exit polls, however, indicated that populist parties combined to win around 50 per cent of the vote, indicating that Italian political life is set to undergo a radical transformation. The strength of the European Union is under threat as euroskeptic  parties gained strength. The final results will be announced later today and various groups will still need to come together to form a coalition government, which means that the political turmoil in the Euro zone's third largest economy is just beginning.

Germany's grand coalition is set to govern again, with the centre-left Social Democrats decisively voting to back a partnership with Chancellor Angela Merkel's centre-right party. Ms. Merkel could be sworn in for her fourth term in the next couple of weeks as Germany moves beyond the political uncertainty that has dominated the last several months following an inconclusive election.

As Xi Jinping clears a path for presidency with no end in sight, China is preparing itself for a dominant global role, The Globe's Nathan VanderKlippe reports. "We are already feeling Chinese power everywhere. And so if this is the situation today, just imagine after another 20 years," is how one scholar describes the prospect of Mr. Xi leading China into the 2030s.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman took his first public trip abroad since consolidating power after last year's purge of other princes and business elite. Meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the crown prince helped set up a $10-billion joint fund to help develop a planned mega city.

And Guatemala is set to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem in May, two days after the U.S. makes its own change of address.

Barrie McKenna (The Globe and Mail) on Poloz and public policy: "The Bank of Canada operates the largest economic analysis shop in the country, with the most sophisticated computer models and an unmatched depth of expertise. Canadians should welcome the Bank of Canada's engagement in the most important public policy debates – even if it means sometimes being out of step with the government of the day." (for subscribers)

Ashley Nunes (The Globe and Mail) on the robots coming to steal our jobs: "Flexing less mental muscle – courtesy of technology – comes at a price. High-paying jobs, long tied to using brains over brawn, become less high paying. Why? Because as the market demands fewer skills, workers with anything extra become less valuable. It's an economic reality reflected across industries. It's also one that spells trouble for Ottawa. The federal budget – which supports multibillion-dollar defence, health and education programs – relies heavily on collecting tax revenue. When wages fall, revenue falls. Lower wages also means less spending which leads to sluggish sales. And this all culminates in fragile economic growth."

Elizabeth Renzetti (The Globe and Mail) on International Women's Day: "Some of the most debasing and grotesque exploitation is perpetrated on the bodies of women by the very people who are supposed to be protecting and helping them. These abuses happen far away, but oddly mirror the revelations that we saw in the #MeToo movement – institutional power trying to shield itself from scrutiny, victims bullied for speaking out, predators seeking out the most vulnerable and never being held to account." (for subscribers)

Meredith Lilly (The Globe and Mail) on Trump and NAFTA: "It's time for a new playbook – one that demonstrates we've learned from Mr. Trump's transactional moves and allows us to achieve our own long-term interests of creating jobs and investment in Canada. Lest I be misunderstood, I'm not calling for Canada to escalate a trade war with Mr. Trump: we can't win. Instead, Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Morneau should focus on urgent, temporary measures to assist Canadian businesses in weathering this storm until calmer winds prevail. The Trudeau government is fond of telling us they are hoping for the best but preparing for the worst on NAFTA. Well, the worst may not be a NAFTA withdrawal at all. Instead, we may already be deep in it: a long, drawn out negotiation that destabilizes our economy and allows Donald Trump to win at what he set out to do all along." (for subscribers)

David Shribman (The Globe and Mail) on Trump's tariffs: "Donald Trump said last week that he welcomed a trade war. This week, he will find out if he gets one. And next week he may discover if his initiative to slap tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, motivated as much by domestic politics as by economic policy, will have the intended effect at the ballot box and boost Republican electoral prospects."

Globe and Mail Editorial Board on the Bloc's troubles: "The bottom line is that the hard-core elements in Quebec's sovereignty movement are out of ideas. They have nothing left to do but tear their parties apart with infighting about who is and who isn't a true believer."

Help The Globe monitor political ads on Facebook: During an election campaign, you can expect to see a lot of political ads. But Facebook ads, unlike traditional media, can be targeted to specific users and only be seen by certain subsets of users, making the ads almost impossible to track. The Globe and Mail wants to report on how these ads are used, but we need to see the same ads Facebook users are seeing. Here is how you can help.