Liberal Gordie Hogg is greeted by supporters after his federal byelection win in the riding of South Surrey-White Rock, in Surrey, B.C., on Monday, Dec. 11, 2017.DARRYL DYCK/The Globe and Mail
Good morning,
In general, it can be easy to read too much into a by-election result. Turnout is low. The balance of power does not change. And what motivates a voter now may not be what motivates them two years from now.
Still, with all those caveats, the governing Liberals are no doubt pleased they have performed very well in the 12 by-elections that have happened since Justin Trudeau took office. The Liberals have flipped two seats that Conservatives had narrowly won in 2015, the most recent being a riding in Surrey, B.C., that provincial-politics veteran Gordie Hogg won last night.
What does past performance indicate about future success? One analysis, from Éric Grenier at the CBC, suggests there is some correlation between a party gaining votes in a by-election and then in the subsequent election. And the historical record indicates the same: The Conservatives flipped a few seats in by-elections between 2006 and 2011, when they finally won a majority government. Between 2011 and 2015, however, the Liberals managed to take two seats held by other parties -- and then went on to win the general election.
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TODAY'S HEADLINES
The government won't say how many people are on its no-fly list, but one estimate indicates up to 100,000 Canadians might have their travelling affected by the list.
The U.S. State Department says it has been intercepting people on their way to trying to claim asylum in Canada and revoking their travel visas.
The federal government has agreed to give provinces a greater share of the tax revenue from legalizing marijuana. Ottawa and the provinces will now split the money 75-25, instead of 50-50, and the federal government will cap what it receives at $100-million a year. Provinces had argued that they were taken on the greater share of costs in enforcing the new regime.
The Liberal government has nominated longtime civil servant Mario Dion as the next ethics commissioner. Mr. Dion has served in many roles, including as the public sector integrity commissioner, for which his office was criticized by the auditor-general for its handling of a pair of files.
The B.C. government has decided to press ahead with the massive Site C hydroelectric dam, despite delays, a budget that has ballooned to nearly $11-billion, and fierce opposition from First Nations and environmentalists. Premier John Horgan argues the NDP government's hands were tied by decisions made by the previous BC Liberal government, which meant scrapping the project would have been too expensive. But the dam could face other hurdles, as two nearby First Nations pledge to file legal challenges seeking to block construction.
The decision in favour of the dam also complicates the New Democrats' relationship with the third-place Green Party, whose support the government is relying on to survive in the minority legislature. Green Leader Andrew Weaver says the decision is reckless and he's suggested the energy minister should be recalled from office. Still, Mr. Weaver says the Site C debate won't prompt him to pull support for the NDP on confidence votes.
Member of Parliament David Sweet shares his family's story of losing a daughter who took her own life.
And it's all in the details: Republicans in the House and Senate are trying to reconcile their very different tax overhaul bills, and it is more complicated than they thought.
André Picard (The Globe and Mail) on Quebec's basic income experiment: "Quebec says it will provide a guaranteed basic income for 84,000 people who are deemed to have a "severely limited capacity to work" because of physical, psychiatric or development disabilities. Those deemed eligible will see their annual benefits increase to $18,029 annually by 2023, up from $12,749 annually today. As jurisdictions around the world study and mull the concept of guaranteed income, Quebec has taken one of the boldest steps yet."
Gary Mason (The Globe and Mail) on Site C: "The decision will also be a setback for the NDP's efforts to reset relations with the province's Indigenous peoples. While not all First Nations oppose Site C, several groups do and have vowed to drag the matter out in the courts. There are doubtlessly some noisy confrontations on the horizon, precipitated by native groups feeling betrayed by the government."
Chris Gardner (The Globe and Mail) on a Canadian International Trade Tribunal decision on imported steel: "The trade tribunal risks smothering billions of dollars in investment and killing thousands of jobs. LNG Canada alone would need 4,000 workers to build a facility in Kitimat. In addition, 3,000 more workers would be required to build the pipeline that will move natural gas from B.C.'s northeast to the West Coast."
John Ivison (National Post) on the Chinese takeover of a Canadian construction company: "If there are concerns in the House of Commons (the Greens excepted), they have not yet been voiced. Canadians deserve better than that. The Aecon-CCCI deal raises a myriad of questions that the official Opposition should be asking about in Parliament – even if they receive the same boilerplate answers."
Robert Libman and Gary Shapiro (Montreal Gazette) on the Bonjour-Hi debate of the Quebec National Assembly: "This craziness has had a devastating impact on the economy of Montreal for the past 40 years, yet no one dares to say so. No one dares to challenge the nationalist group-think. For Montreal to thrive, people on both sides of the language divide must question these things. The 'Bonjour-Hi' greeting is part of the unique flavour of the city. The multicultural and linguistic reality of Montreal will not be socially engineered by forcing business establishments to stop using a bilingual greeting. Forcing Montreal to be something that it isn't does not work."
Chantal Hebert (Toronto Star) on the Bonjour-Hi debate: "Quebec's bonjour/hi flare-up has more to do with panicky pre-electoral jitters than with the dynamics of the language debate in Montreal."
Globe and Mail editorial board on today's special Senate election in Alabama: "The systemic disenfranchisement of black people and poor white citizens condemned them to live in poverty, with consequences still felt today. Alabama consistently rates as one of the worst states in the U.S. when it comes to basic metrics. It has the worst public-health outcomes and the second-highest obesity rate in America, according to annual rankings by U.S. News and World Report. Its education system also ranks among the very worst in America, as does its GDP per capita."