Politics Briefing: Liberals continue to lead polls

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Every week, Nanos Research asks 250 Canadians which of the political parties they like most. Since the 2015 election – the results of which almost exactly lined up with Nanos's polling – the Liberals have led in each weekly tracking poll. This week's, for instance, shows the Liberals are the first-ranked choice of 40 per cent of respondents, followed by the Conservatives at 31 per cent and the NDP at 17 per cent. The Liberals also have the highest proportion – 54 per cent – of people who say they would consider voting for them. If the Liberals received 40 per cent of the vote in the next election, they would probably win another majority of seats.

But as Nik Nanos likes to point out, it's the trends that matter. And since reaching highs of support last spring, the Liberal's level of support has drifted down in fits and starts. The question is whether the Liberals are settling down into a sustainable level of support now that the Opposition parties have elected their new leaders – or whether the downward trend will continue.

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Chris Hannay in Ottawa, Mayaz Alam in Toronto and James Keller in Vancouver. If you're reading this on the web or someone forwarded this email newsletter to you, you can sign up for Politics Briefing and all Globe newsletters here. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.

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TODAY'S HEADLINES

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is still in China, where he says he is pressing leadership on the issue of human rights and Canadians detained in the country. The Liberal government continues to work on negotiating the terms of free-trade talks with China, but no more movement has been announced publicly.

Canada's chief negotiator in the North American free-trade agreement talks says some of the U.S. proposals have been "completely unworkable."

Small-business owners say they are worried about the government's planned tax changes to split income between family members. The government says changes will be made that will go in effect Jan. 1, but hasn't yet released the details of the overhaul.

Revenue Minister Diane Lebouthillier says when she said the Canada Revenue Agency had collected $25-billion in previously-unpaid taxes, what she meant was that investigators had identified $25-billion that they want to collect.

As the federal government prepares to go to court Friday to fight veterans who were given the antimalarial drug mefloquine, Ireland has given a "substantial" amount of money to a former soldier there for the damage he said the drug caused him.

A group of disabled veterans say they're considering a Supreme Court of Canada appeal after losing a legal challenge of a Harper-era change to disability pensions. The B.C. Court of Appeal has rejected the veterans' lawsuit over the previous Conservative government's decision in 2006 to replace lifelong disability pensions with a lump-sum payment, career training and targeted income support.

The B.C. government is giving the agency that regulates gambling the ability to fine or even shut down casinos as it cracks down on money laundering. The province says new service agreements with casinos give the BC Lottery Corp. more authority to penalize privately owned casinos. Today, Attorney General David Eby will release a review of money laundering within the casino system – along with recommendations to stop it.

Alberta is attempting to limit the influence of third-party groups amid concerns that a ban on corporate and union donations has created a new incentive for "dark money" to influence the political system. A number of so-called third-party fundraising vehicles have emerged to fund the NDP government opponents, particularly the United Conservative Party under Jason Kenney. New legislation would impose an advertising spending limit of $150,000 for third-party groups in the months before a provincial election.

The Alberta Party, which holds two seats in the provincial legislature, is delaying its election of a new leader, but the party insists the reason is not because no one is running for it.

And Liberal MP Sherry Romanado says Conservative MP James Bezan has made "humiliating" sexual comments to her that have caused her great stress in her job, but Mr. Bezan says he has apologized and taken sensitivity training to make up for it.

Jim Balsillie (The Globe and Mail) on Trans-Pacific Partnership: "By designing a trade strategy that benefits Canada's current and future wealth drivers, Canadian negotiators focused on securing market access for traditional businesses and policy flexibility for our digital businesses to create new markets. This outcome is all the more significant because it was done against the backdrop of foreign corporate interests in Canada that dominate face time with our government, and also influence Canadian business associations." (for subscribers)

Charles Burton (The Globe and Mail) on trade with China: "China has no qualms whatsoever about fully leveraging economic dependence to serve its overall geopolitical goals throughout the world, including Canada. Mr. Trudeau would represent Canada best if he gave China a frank review of the reasons why we cannot commit to free trade with a non-transparent, state-directed, duplicitous and corrupt economic regime."

Eva Busza and Yushu Zhu (The Globe and Mail) on what millennials think of Asia: "Far from being disinterested and disengaged, millennials are quite likely to support a Canadian pivot toward Asia, and the government's negotiation of more open trade agreements with China and the economies of ASEAN. They also welcome the government taking the lead in creating opportunities for Canadians, particularly young Canadians, to learn more about Asia."

Chantal Hébert (Toronto Star) on Finance Minister Bill Morneau: "The Conservatives say they are building a compelling case that Justin Trudeau leads an elitist ethically challenged government. They have to believe they are playing the long game for there is so far scant evidence that the strategy is paying off."

Barrie McKenna (The Globe and Mail) on CBC and local news: "A government bailout of newspapers was always a troubling notion. Independence is essential for newspapers if they want to hold governments accountable. But Canadians may regret that Ottawa isn't doing more to rein in the predatory behaviour of the public broadcaster in the backyards of newspapers." (for subscribers)

Mark Sutcliffe (Ottawa Citizen) on Canada 150 projects: "What if we had invested the money that went to La Machine and other attractions like Kontinuum into permanent tourism infrastructure that would improve the Ottawa experience for years to come, rather than last for only a weekend or two? Creating one additional recurring event would have been a great 2017 legacy and would have produced an enormous and lasting impact. Look at what the international film festival has become for Toronto, what Just for Laughs is for Montreal."

Jim Beattie, John Cashore, Corky Evans, Tom Perry, Joan Sawicki, and David Zirnhelt (The Globe and Mail) on the Site C dam: "As we see it, cancellation of the Site C project can be the centrepiece of British Columbia's action on climate change. Cabinet can re-direct enormous legislatively committed resources. Public initiative can turn from a project that is costly, unnecessary and environmentally and socially destructive to projects that are essential, positive and socially restorative."

John McCoy and Elise Sammons (The Globe and Mail) on extremism in Alberta: "We must remind one another to recognize our similarities: what draws us together as a diverse society is an important first step in countering the message of those who seek to divide us."

Shachi Kurl (Policy Options) on multiculturalism: "It's still early days in this political chapter, where leaders are seeking to change public expression and institutional arrangements associated with religious belief. Ironically, the diversity that is at the heart of this emerging debate may impose the greatest limits on those who would seek to limit religious expression: Canadian immigration policies favour vibrant Islamic, Sikh, Hindu and Christian communities."

Jordan Stanger-Ross and Matt James (The Globe and Mail) on Trudeau's apologies: "We can expect to look back on both of Mr. Trudeau's recent apologies as imperfect – and we should embrace their impermanence. Of course, the imperfection of apology does not absolve government of the duty to consult seriously with survivors of injustice and to provide robust and satisfying accounts of its actions."