Political reporter Jane Taber takes an inside look at the week in politics.
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Ghosts of Liberal leaders, past and present – a tale of two ridings
Justin Trudeau and his Liberal team believe they are poised to win back two key Toronto ridings from the Conservatives, one that was held by Michael Ignatieff, the former federal leader, and one represented provincially by Ontario Liberal Leader and Premier Kathleen Wynne.
Some Liberals are asking the question, how does the presence of a leader, past or present, affect a race?
Don Valley West is a particularly interesting race. It is held provincially by Ms. Wynne, who has made it clear she wants Stephen Harper and his Conservatives out, and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and his team in.
She is a long-time friend and colleague of Rob Oliphant, the federal Liberal candidate in her riding, and is helping him out, having already supported him at a fundraiser. There is also much integration between the federal and provincial campaign teams.
Mr. Oliphant was the MP in the riding from 2008 to 2011, when he lost by just 611 votes to Conservative John Carmichael, who appears to be in trouble, given the Liberal lead in Ontario in the national opinion polls and his slim victory last time around.
But the Liberals aren’t taking anything for granted. Ms. Wynne’s new sex-education curriculum is attracting angry protests in the riding, especially among new Canadians. As the provincial and federal Liberal party brands are so closely integrated, the is some concern that voters will not draw the distinction between what is federal policy and what is a provincial issue.
Adding to the intrigue is that strategists for the Liberal and Tory candidates are giants in the world of political organization. They also both worked together – and got along – on John Tory’s successful Toronto mayoral campaign.
Tom Allison is the volunteer campaign co-chair for Mr. Oliphant. He’s the organizer who got Ms. Wynne, considered the underdog, her Liberal leadership win. He’s also a team player and most recently took on the impossible task of trying to win the Liberal nomination in Eglinton-Lawrence for Eve Adams, the former Conservative MP who crossed the floor to join the Liberals. She is engaged to long-time former Harper senior aide Dimitri Soudas. She failed in her bid, a rare loss for Mr. Allison.
Now he’s up against the formidable Nick Kouvalis, a campaign strategist for Mr. Carmichael. Mr. Kouvalis helped the Tories win in the GTA in 2011, and is also close to controversial former Toronto mayor Rob Ford – he served for a time as his chief of staff. In 2012, his polling firm was censured for making misleading calls into Liberal MP Irwin Cotler’s Montreal riding, telling voters Mr. Cotler had either resigned or was about to, and a by-election was being called. The Tories have been targeting Mr. Cotler’s riding for a win in this election.
“If you had told me 15 months ago that I would be good friends with two of the most famous Greek-Canadian Conservative organizers, I would have said you’re out of your mind,” Mr. Allison said. In addition to working alongside Mr. Kouvalis, Mr. Allison worked closely with Mr. Soudas on Ms. Adams’s campaign.
About the fight for Don Valley West, he says Mr. Oliphant is campaigning as if he is five points behind. As for having to battle Mr. Kouvalis, Mr. Allison says he’s not worried: “I happen to think Nick does better when he has me helping him,” he said. “He doesn’t have me helping him.”
Meanwhile, federal Liberal candidate James Maloney is benefiting from the fact that Michael Ignatieff is no longer leader. Mr. Maloney, a former city councillor and the son of former Liberal senator Marian Maloney, appears poised to defeat Conservative incumbent Bernard Trottier.
Mr. Trottier was the giant slayer in 2011, when he picked off Mr. Ignatieff, then Liberal leader and, by the end of the election, very unpopular and polling below the party. Mr. Ignatieff resigned the day after the election.
A senior Tory organizer in Toronto says the riding is a volatile one that has been represented by all three major parties over the years. Right now, it is a tough battle for Mr. Trottier, the organizer said, adding he won in 2011 when the Liberals and NDP split the vote.
Chrystia Freeland
Of the four star Liberal candidates in Toronto, Chrystia Freeland, the Toronto Centre MP, is facing the toughest fight in the new University-Rosedale riding. Ms. Freeland, who was elected in a by-election after former interim leader Bob Rae resigned, is up against hard-working NDP candidate Jennifer Hollett.
Ms. Freeland’s weakness, according to a Liberal insider, is that she is viewed, rightly or wrongly, as not paying as much attention to her riding as she should. In addition, the boundaries have changed so that the old Toronto Centre riding that she has represented has been cut up. Her new riding takes in part of the NDP stronghold in the old Trinity-Spadina.
The three other Trudeau Toronto stars – Bill Morneau, running in Toronto Centre, Bill Blair in Scarborough Southwest, and Spadina-Fort York candidate Adam Vaughan – have a lot of work to do, but could squeak out a win.
Defeating Adam Vaughan
The NDP, however, is focused on defeating Adam Vaughan and re-electing Olivia Chow, who had resigned as a federal MP to run unsuccessfully for Toronto Mayor. Earlier this week, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair was in Spadina-Fort York, where Ms. Chow is facing off against Mr. Vaughan, for a rally that attracted more than 1,000 people.
In his speech, Mr. Mulcair played up the fact that his party voted against the contentious Bill C-51, the Conservatives’ anti-terrorism legislation. He criticized Mr. Trudeau for first opposing the bill, then voting for it along with the Conservatives. “How can Canadians trust a person who so easily abandons one principle for another?” Mr. Mulcair asked.
The Liberals say they will amend the bill if they form government. But the NDP believes the Liberals’ support of the bill is costing Mr. Trudeau votes in downtown Toronto ridings, and for them, it’s a good wedge issue. On Thursday, they took Mr. Vaughan to task for comments he made to a local newspaper regarding his support for Bill C-51. He said the biggest public-safety issues are illegal handguns in the entertainment district. “I’ll let the other two parties worry about spies in the wall and terrorists under rocks,” he told Metro News.
This provoked an angry press release from an outraged Olivia Chow. “Adam Vaughan’s dismissive attitude toward the critics of C-51 shows his poor judgment,” she said in the statement. It listed the prominent Canadians, who are opposed to the security bill. Ms. Chow said that Mr. Vaughan was mocking these experts. “That’s not the kind of change people want in Ottawa.”