Notebook: Liberals look to take long-time Tory stronghold in Nova Scotia

Central Nova is one of the bluest Conservative ridings in the country, represented by the father-and-son Tory team of Elmer and Peter MacKay for nearly four decades.

The Trudeau Liberals think they can win it on Oct. 19.

Peter MacKay decided he would not run in this election, creating an open riding and fierce competition for Central Nova – a huge riding full of small towns and fishing and farming communities, cutting a swath through the middle of the province.

The Liberal confidence, however, is an indication of just how bad it is for Stephen Harper and his Conservatives in the maritime province. Nova Scotia has 11 federal seats – the Tories and Liberals each have four and the NDP represent the other three. Liberal strategists believe they will walk away with all four Tory-occupied seats.

But a win in Central Nova for the Liberals, given the MacKay legacy – both MacKays were senior Conservative cabinet ministers – would be the jewel in their crown.

The Liberal candidate is Sean Fraser, a 31-year-old lawyer, who recently returned to the area after working in Calgary. He’s facing Conservative Fred DeLorey, 36, who also just moved back to the riding, after working as a senior official for Mr. Harper in Ottawa.

Mr. DeLorey is a close friend of Peter MacKay, who has been helping him in the campaign. The elder MacKay has also been advising him. “So it’s great to have Elmer and Peter as mentors. They know how to get things done, they know how to deliver,” said Mr. DeLorey, who says the younger MacKay has brought about $500-million of investment into the riding.

The NDP candidate is Ross Landry, a former provincial justice minister who lost to a Progressive Conservative in the 2013 provincial election.

“The riding is open and it’s anybody’s play,” Mr. Landry said in an interview. “It still has strong traditional roots of Conservatives, but a lot of people are saying it’s time for a change and they are making that clear.

“People have had enough of Stephen Harper, but whether that translates into a change in the seat, time will only tell,” he added.

So far, polls are mixed – different polls this week had the Tories up and the Liberals ahead by more than 20 points. The NDP support could also lead to a split in the vote on the left, helping the Tories.

The Liberals have been pouring resources into the riding; Mike Mercer, a top Grit official in the province and the son of Senator Terry Mercer, former executive director of the federal Liberals, is in the riding at least once a week, helping with organization.

But the Liberals have had to rebuild their organization, which atrophied after former leader Stéphane Dion decided not to run a candidate against Green Party Leader Elizabeth May in the 2008 election, which she lost by 6,000 votes. In 2011, the Liberals came a distant third, attracting only 14 per cent of the vote; Mr. MacKay earned 56 per cent and the NDP 24 per cent.

Mr. Fraser’s campaign manager, Neil Stephen, says Mr. MacKay has done a lot for the riding, and believes voters are searching for the next Peter MacKay.

“When you look at résumés and look at backgrounds, more and more people are gravitating to Sean and the Liberals,” he said.

As in other rural ridings in Nova Scotia, communities here are struggling to keep industry and create jobs as the population ages and young people leave.

Mr. DeLorey has been talking about jobs and the economy as he goes door-knocking around the riding. He says he’s been getting a positive response, and now that the summer is over, people are beginning to pay more attention.

“It’s getting better,” he said. “I really think momentum is on our side.”

Finding the perfect venue for a leader to make important announcements during an election campaign is not an easy task – and can be fraught with peril.

The wrong picture or an inappropriate backdrop sends the wrong impression that the politician is just not ready to lead.

This week, the NDP dodged potential embarrassment when it abandoned the idea of Leader Thomas Mulcair touring a fish plant in Cap-Pelé, N.B., as part of his plan to reform employment insurance.

The fish plant tour would have provided an interesting photo-op and illustrated the issue as the workers there are seasonal and depend on the plan. After the early-morning tour he was to go to Moncton, about a 35-minute drive away, to make his EI announcement.

A well-placed source says the tour was cancelled just 48 hours before it was to take place.

Under the Canadian Food Inspection Agency’s hygiene guidelines, Mr. Mulcair would have had to have worn not only a hairnet, but most likely a net over his beard. “That certainly seemed to be a big issue,” said the source.

This, of course, recalls memories of the picture of Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe, who famously wore a hairnet while touring a Quebec cheese factory during the 1997 election. It was his first campaign as leader, and the less than flattering shot fed the narrative that he was inexperienced and gaffe prone.

NDP spokesman George Smith, however, said the party’s advance teams visit many locations when planning the details of a tour. “In the end, this specific venue was decided against because of its distance from Moncton,” Mr. Smith explained.

In the end, though, the NDP chose the city with the lowest unemployment rate in the province to make their EI reform announcement. The Liberals, who think they can win in Moncton, were amused.