Notebook: Women give Liberals a bump, New Democrats court GTA

If only women were voting, Justin Trudeau and his Liberals would win the federal election today, according to recent polls showing that women are giving the Liberals their momentum, especially in the battleground of Ontario.

Women were not there for Stéphane Dion’s Liberals in 2008, or for Michael Ignatieff in the 2011 federal campaign. In those two campaigns, women were seeking stability, and Conservative leader Stephen Harper did a better job of selling it than the other leaders, according to a veteran Liberal strategist.

But now they’re coming back – two recent polls are showing the return.

“Women are the first to really show volatility during a campaign,” says the strategist.

The new Ipsos Public Affairs poll, released this week, shows 7 per cent more women than men supporting Mr. Trudeau and his Liberals; an Environics poll from mid-September has the gap at 10 per cent, with 34 per cent of women supporting the Liberals, compared to 24 per cent of men.

The Environics poll shows, too, that the Conservatives have the support of 21 per cent of women, compared to 32 per cent for the NDP.

The Ipsos poll has Conservatives with 28-per-cent support from women, compared to 36 per cent support for the Liberals. The NDP, according to the poll, have the support of 25 per cent of female voters.

The gap, according to pollsters, explains the momentum of the Liberals. One senior adviser says the support isn’t about “handsome Trudeau.” Rather, it shows his policies to provide relief for the middle class – including this week’s health-care announcement, in which he promised to increase health spending by $3-billion over four years and to improve home care – may be catching on among women.

Liberals see this as a “great opportunity” to continue to push what they characterize as their “family-centred platform.”

Ipsos Public Affairs CEO Darrell Bricker sees something else, too, in the polls. His latest poll has the Conservatives and Liberals tied in Ontario at 33 per cent. In Toronto, the fight is between the NDP and Liberals; and in the so-called 905 ridings around Toronto, the Conservatives are at 43 per cent, compared to 36 per cent for the Liberals.

“The real competition now is for the 905,” says Mr. Bricker, noting in the 2011 election, the Conservatives swept through that area, and Ontario Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne swept the region in last year’s provincial election.

“When you have the Liberals and Conservatives basically tied in Ontario, that means the Liberals are doing really well in the 905 … and that’s a big problem for the Conservatives,” he says.“So, finding a way to break through with women is really important, principally because there’s a lot of family-type issues for middle class voters in the 905 that the Conservatives were able to connect on the last time out, that they are having trouble connecting on this time.”

The NDP’s wooing of Toronto and the ridings in the 905 area continues as the party launched a separate platform in the area Friday morning. Given the slump in polls for the NDP, especially in Quebec, the party needs to win seats in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area to remain competitive.

“Building a Better Toronto” features glossy pictures of NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair with some of his prominent Toronto incumbent candidates, including Peggy Nash and Andrew Cash. In one picture, he is welding something and in another, he is holding a lobster (odd for an Ontario document). Very little is new in the document. But there is a promise to strengthen the process for foreign-credential recognition to help new Canadians get jobs to match their professional training.

Mainly, however, it repackages the NDP’s major announcements, such as its child-care initiative and restoring funding for health care and transit plans that it hopes will appeal to Toronto voters. The NDP is aiming to use this document as a contrast between their contention of inaction by the Conservatives and cuts by the Liberals.

“The success of our cities is vital to our national interest,” Mulcair writes in the foreword to the document. “There is no greater urban centre in this country than the City of Toronto and its surrounding municipalities.” He also invokes the memory of Jack Layton, the late and popular NDP leader, who represented a Toronto riding, saying he “pioneered a vision for Canada’s cities” and the NDP is continuing his work.

It was one of the most memorable lines of the foreign-policy debate, and it had nothing to do with foreign policy. Here’s how it happened.

Justin Trudeau was prepared for the attack; it was the timing that was unexpected, coming on the exact anniversary of his father’s death. In fact, Mr. Trudeau had been ready a few debates ago to respond to criticisms by NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper over his late father Pierre Trudeau’s legacy of governing, noted a senior adviser.

But it wasn’t until Monday night’s Munk debate on foreign policy that Mr. Trudeau was able to deliver the line, and what made it made more emotional and significant was that it was the 15th anniversary of the elder Trudeau’s death.

“Throughout this campaign, in indirect references and direct references, both of these gentlemen have, at various points, attacked my father,” Mr. Trudeau, his voice filled with emotion, said after Mr. Mulcair launched into an attack against his father for jailing people, without trial, during the 1970 October Crisis. “Let me say very clearly, I’m incredibly proud to be Pierre Elliott Trudeau’s son. And I’m incredibly lucky to be raised with those Liberal values.”

Mr. Mulcair had walked right into it.

Said Mr. Trudeau, “It’s quite emotional for me right now to be able to talk about him because it was 15 years ago tonight that he passed away. I know that he wouldn’t want us to be fighting the battles of the past. He’d want us squarely focused on the future.”

As Globe and Mail columnist Margaret Wente wrote this week, “Of course it was rehearsed. It was also touching and authentic. You could feel the crowd tear up.”