Political reporter Jane Taber takes an inside look at the week in politics.
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Concerned Progressive Conservatives: Stephen Harper and ‘Baby Trudeau’
As Justin Trudeau tries to woo disaffected former Progressive Conservatives to his side, an e-mail exchange between two long-time Brian Mulroney-era PCers is making the rounds, revealing frustration with Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and concerns about the future of the party.
Former Mulroney cabinet minister Barbara McDougall has written passionately in The Globe and Mail about the Syrian refugee crisis, criticizing Mr. Harper’s leadership on this issue. In an Oct. 13 e-mail to former senator Lowell Murray, Ms. McDougall responds to his queries about a story by The Globe’s Joe Friesen in which he reveals the Prime Minister’s Office ordered immigration officials to halt processing the most vulnerable of Syrian refugees; all UN-referred refugees would require approval from the Prime Minister. Writes Mr. Murray: “PM may want to issue a policy direction – but micromanaging?” Mr. Murray refused to join the Conservative caucus after the merger of the PC Party and the Canadian Alliance and sat as a PC senator until he retired in September, 2011. Ms. McDougall writes a lengthy reply, touching on other issues, including criticizing former PMO chief of staff Nigel Wright for trying to “muzzle” senior Senator Marjorie LeBreton on a Senate issue. “I can’t imagine you (or Duff Roblin) paying any attention,” she wrote back. “Outrage is called for.” (Mr. Roblin was a former Manitoba premier and PC senator.) On the issue of the Syrian refugees, Ms. McDougall referenced her recent article in The Globe, adding, “I think Stephen Harper has destroyed our party. God knows how long it will take to come back. On the other hand, Baby Trudeau??? I shudder.” The Globe contacted Ms. McDougall by e-mail, and she confirmed the exchange with Mr. Murray was “part of a long continuum.… I would not say anything attacking our leader that costs our Party one single vote. I talk about issues,” she wrote, noting that in her recent article she credited Mr. Harper with keeping the party together for 10 years.
The Gagnier gift?
New Democrats wasted no time jumping on the controversy around Dan Gagnier, co-chair of the Liberal campaign, who resigned after advising oil executives how to lobby a new government, including a Liberal one.
As NDP Leader Tom Mulcair campaigned in Quebec on Thursday, slamming Justin Trudeau over the Gagnier affair, his strategists were busy designing a new series of ads aimed at reminding voters the Liberal Party is still the party of lobbyists and patronage. “That’s the old Liberal party,” Mr. Mulcair said repeatedly Thursday, suggesting a connection between Mr. Gagnier’s activities and those of the old-boy Liberal network during the Quebec sponsorship scandal. “They’re all about helping themselves.… I’m glad Canadians have a chance to see it before the election.” The NDP will make sure of that – their new ads will be on TV and online, according to an NDP war-room strategist who spoke on background. He said the Gagnier affair is “playing very hot” in Quebec, and the hope is that it will drive the so-called “progressive vote” to the NDP as Canadians begin to make their final decisions for Monday’s vote. The New Democrats are in some tight races across the country. They have said from the outset they need to hold what they have – 95 seats at dissolution – and win 35 seats from the Conservatives to form government. There are about a dozen seats in Southwestern Ontario that they are trying to take from the Conservatives. They also believe they have a good chance in the three Saskatoon seats; they hope to win one more seat in Edmonton and a number on Vancouver Island. Defeating the Harper Conservatives in 35 seats does not bring them to a majority government – 170 seats are needed for that. But they maintain, despite their marked slippage in the polls, that their aim is to defeat the Conservatives and emerge Monday with a strong mandate. Their party platform, released last week, says New Democrats will work with other federalist parties if they form a minority government. They would need, then, 30 more votes to get their agenda through.
‘Hamburger’ helper
The big question now is whether the Gagnier affair will cost the Liberals. Here’s the take from veteran Conservative organizer and former Toronto federal candidate, John Capobianco: “Everything that happens in the last drive to e-day is significant since there are still soft votes out there, and the challenge the Liberals have with this issue is that it speaks directly to the main problems they have faced in the past, and they have been trying to portray themselves being above reproach during this campaign. Also, having this happen on the same day as Justin calling for a majority I don’t think will sit well with certain voters.”
He noted there are still a lot of close fights in Ontario between the Liberals and Conservatives and also the Liberals and NDP. How the votes split in Quebec will also be key, he said, for determining whether it’s a majority or minority government on Monday. Veteran Liberals were canvassed. On background, they support Mr. Trudeau’s swift action in getting rid of Mr. Gagnier. One long-time backroom strategist says that the NDP is grasping at straws over this: “To a hungry man, a hamburger looks like a filet mignon – but it’s still a hamburger,” he said, disagreeing with the NDP view that the progressive vote will go back to them. “This thing doesn’t change the basic equation, which is replacing Harper is more important to their potential voters than voting NDP.”