Premier Paul Davis arrives at Government House to meet with Lt. Gov. Frank Fagan to call an election in Newfoundland and Labrador, Thursday, Nov.5, 2015.Keith Gosse/The Canadian Press
Newfoundland and Labrador's Progressive Conservative government is poised for a dramatic defeat in the Nov. 30 election as voters want change and want it in the form of a Liberal government, according to a new opinion poll.
A Liberal win would complete the sweep of the Atlantic provinces – the three Maritime provinces all have Liberal governments. And in last month's federal election, Justin Trudeau and his Liberals won every one of the 32 seats in the Atlantic.
The numbers in the Abacus Data poll are staggering – Progressive Conservative Premier Paul Davis, who called the election Thursday, has only 19-per-cent support compared with 66 per cent for new Liberal leader Dwight Ball – a 47-percentage-point lead.
Fuelling the dramatic numbers in the poll is the intense desire among residents for change – a sentiment expressed by Canadians in the recent federal election.
Eighty-five per cent of Newfoundlanders say they want to see change – and 60 per cent say they definitely want change.
The PCs have been in power since 2003
"It's really bad timing for the Progressive Conservatives in Newfoundland that they called this election when Justin Trudeau is in the midst of his honeymoon and after he just swept every seat in Atlantic Canada," says Abacus CEO David Coletto.
The federal Liberals won 65 per cent of the vote in the province in the federal election.
"There is a lot of crossover between the two levels," Mr. Coletto says.
The Ottawa-based polling firm interviewed 800 residents by either cellphone or land lines from Oct. 30 to Nov. 4. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
There have been other similarities to the federal scene, too: In a poll last June, Mr. Coletto found the NDP in Newfoundland rising as a result of the boost from the NDP win in Alberta.
But that has all disappeared and those voters who want change are going to the Liberals.
Interestingly, Mr. Coletto says all of the usual signs are good for the government. Voters believe the province is headed in the right direction, they think the province is doing a good job managing the economy and the Premier is pretty well liked.
"Those three fundamentals suggest the Progressive Conservatives should be in a good place to maybe win this election," he said. "But the fact is it looks like it's going to be a really tough go for them and the numbers aren't improving."
He says everything is being overshadowed by the desire for change and the "coattails that Trudeau and the Liberals brought … ."
In the last provincial election in 2011, the Progressive Conservatives won a majority government with 56 per cent of the vote.