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Outgoing prime minister Stephen Harper arrives at his Langevin office in Ottawa, Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2015.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press

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POLITICS NOTEBOOK

By Chris Hannay (@channay)

If the Progressive Conservatives lose re-election in Newfoundland and Labrador this month (and there's a good chance of that, judging by polls), Canada will face a situation that hasn't existed since 1940.

Not a single governing party - provincially or federally - will have the word "Conservative" in their name.

To pollster David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, part of this may be the resonance federal brands can have at the provincial level. Justin Trudeau's name and the campaigning he did had no doubt helped Liberals in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, and the surprise win of the NDP in Alberta boosted their federal cousins this summer (at least for a while).

But the brand link can also work in the other direction.

"We've seen this pendulum swing before where one [federal] party's brand gets hit and it hurts the brand in provincial parties," Mr. Coletto said.

Stephen Harper, whose personal image became so tied to the Conservative Party he led for 12 years, may have been a drag on other parties.

"The party's brand is now so closely tied to whoever the leader is, that if you have a popular leader that'll provide coattails for any party that uses that brand," Mr. Coletto said.

Now, that's not to say there aren't small-c conservative parties in power provincially. The Yukon Party (once known as the "Yukon Progressive Conservative Party") and the Saskatchewan Party are conservative in all but name, and Christy Clark's B.C. Liberals are supported by those who would vote Conservative federally.

But in Alberta, when the NDP won election on a progressive platform, which conservative-minded party formed the opposition? A party called the Wildrose.

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW THIS MORNING

> The new Veterans Affairs Minister is vowing to change how Ottawa treats its soldiers. (Read more of The Globe's series on soldier suicides.)

> Environment Minister Catherine McKenna is in Paris for pre-summit talks.

> Health Minister Jane Philpott will start talking to provinces this week about a new health accord.

> Federal scientists are now allowed to talk to the media.

> After the rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline, a new alliance of aboriginal leaders and environmental activists is urging Justin Trudeau to block a liquified natural gas project in northern B.C.

> Interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose says she wants to leave the "nastiness" behind, and Conservative MPs say they're now able to talk more freely.

> Former minister Kellie Leitch is considering a run for the permanent Conservative leadership.

> Library and Archives Canada is asking Stephen Harper for documents from his time in office.

> Tom Mulcair told B.C. New Democrats over the weekend that his party will be trying to oppose Mr. Trudeau from the left and make sure there's "real change" happening in Ottawa.

> ICYMI from the weekend: an in-depth profile of Bill Morneau (for subscribers), Canada's new finance minister.

HOW THE FORECAST DID

Over the course of the election, the Globe's Election Forecast tried to model the chance of each party winning based on publicly available polling data. How well did the Forecast predict the outcome? Surprisingly well.

WHAT EVERYONE'S TALKING ABOUT

"The inability of the Conservative government, over a full decade, either to expand oil exports through new pipelines or to meet Canada's international obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions stands as Stephen Harper's biggest policy failure. Now it's Mr. Trudeau's turn to try." – John Ibbitson (for subscribers) on the Liberal climate challenges.

Konrad Yakabuski (Globe and Mail): "[Barack] Obama killed Keystone for political reasons outside Canada's control."

Richard Florida (Globe and Mail): "What is required is much more strategic investment in denser, transit-served, more connected cities and suburbs."

Michael Den Tandt (Postmedia): "The calculus looks grim for [Tom] Mulcair as he faces a leadership review in April."

Jen Gerson (National Post): "Some of the adulation [of Trudeau] is so obsequious, the obituaries to Harper so ungracious, that it's fair to wonder if the Conservatives' paranoid style wasn't justified. "

This newsletter is produced by Chris Hannay and Steve Proceviat.


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