Conservative MP Patrick Brown gives his farewell speech in the House of Commons in Ottawa, Wednesday, May 13, 2015.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
Patrick Brown, the newly elected leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, needs a seat in the legislature – and so far, there is no lineup of PC MPPs at his office door offering to give up theirs.
The 36-year-old, who had represented Barrie federally for nine years as a Conservative MP, was the outsider in the recent leadership race, supported by only five of 28 PC caucus members.
Last week, he resigned his seat in the House of Commons and now is one of only a handful of party leaders since Confederation who has been elected to the top job without a foothold in the legislature.
Mr. Brown is not saying where or when he will run for a seat. Privately, some of his strategists are saying he is in no rush to get into the legislature – arguing that nothing much happens in the chamber anyway.
But, he waits at his peril. With a provincial election not expected until 2018, Mr. Brown's only way into the chamber is through a by-election, basically someone in his caucus must give up their seat for him. Barrie, meanwhile, is not really an option for now as it is represented by a Liberal MPP.
John Tory, who was the Ontario PC Leader from 2004 to 2009, spent most of his energy searching for a seat he could win. The constant speculation about where he would run after he lost his bid for a seat in the 2007 election played a part in diminishing his leadership – after finally finding an MPP who would give up her safe seat, he lost it in a by-election to the Liberal candidate and then immediately resigned as leader in 2009.
"If you're not on the floor of Queen's Park, as in Patrick's situation, he'll want to be able to say face-to-face to Premier [Kathleen] Wynne, 'That's not how I think this should be taking place. This is the alternative I want to present,'" said federal Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, who spent five years trying to win a seat in Parliament.
She regularly attended Question Period, peering down from the public gallery to the floor of the Commons and not able to participate. Finally, she beat Conservative cabinet minister Gary Lunn in the 2011 federal election to represent a riding in British Columbia.
Ms. May said that for her party to be taken seriously, "we've got to be providing the critique in real time" and trying to get their message into the mix.
Premier Wynne's aides, meanwhile, are watching Mr. Brown's search for a seat with much interest, and tracking local and community newspapers for stories about the MPPs who have told reporters they're not prepared to give up their seats for Mr. Brown. Quietly, they recall how painful Mr. Tory's desperate hunt for a seat was – one Wynne strategist described it as a "death watch."
A key provincial PC backroomer is very aware of this, noting that "If John Tory is any indication, it will be hard for him [Mr. Brown] to find a seat."
The average waiting period between being elected leader and getting into the House of Commons, for example, is 20 months, according to an analysis in 2011 by ThreeHundredEight.com's Éric Grenier. More recently, former Alberta premier Jim Prentice entered the legislature about a month after winning as PC leader.
Ms. Wynne has said that she would call a by-election right away if and when Mr. Brown identifies a potential seat. However, it is expected that the Liberals will run a candidate against Mr. Brown – gone is the courtesy once afforded party leaders by their opponents not to run against them in a by-election.
There have been rumours about where Mr. Brown could run.
The most persistent is that Toby Barrett, the veteran MPP for Haldimand-Norfolk, will step aside. But Mr. Barrett, who supported Mr. Brown's bid, has told his local newspaper that he won't give up his seat.
It's not clear yet what Christine Elliott, the Whitby-Oshawa MPP who lost to Mr. Brown, will do. She's taking some time to figure things out. And then there's Mr. Brown's predecessor, Tim Hudak, whose resignation after losing last year's provincial election triggered the leadership race.
"I am the MPP for Niagara West-Glanbrook," Mr. Hudak told The Globe and Mail. "Whatever the role the new leader gives me I am looking forward to helping out. I learned a few tricks in my day."
Mr. Hudak seems in no hurry to leave.