Liberal candidate Bill Casey, right, speaks with general contractor Leo Rovers at the during a tour of the site for the new library in Truro, N.S., last week.Paul Darrow/The Globe and Mail
At 70, former Conservative MP Bill Casey is now the Liberal candidate in one of the hottest races in Atlantic Canada as he tries to stage a political comeback – and stick it to Conservative Leader Stephen Harper.
It's his "get-even," says a veteran Liberal organizer. And Mr. Casey's large lawn signs, sprinkled around Cumberland-Colchester, a mostly white, aging and rural riding in north-central Nova Scotia, say as much: "Send Stephen Harper a message. Vote Bill Casey." Underneath is a big picture of the white-haired politician, wearing a Liberal-red tie and sporting a mischievous smile.
There is no mention of his opponent, Scott Armstrong, the Conservative candidate and incumbent MP – and that is because Mr. Casey's fight is with Mr. Harper.
Elected as a Progressive Conservative MP in 1988, in a slightly redrawn version of the riding, Mr. Casey joined the Harper Tories in the 2003 merger. In 2007, however, he was kicked out of caucus when he opposed the Harper budget for what he saw as a broken promise over the Atlantic Accord.
"The biggest thing I hear is, 'I don't like Harper,'" Mr. Casey said over lunch at the Soup Café in downtown Truro, a town of 12,500, the largest community in the riding. "He's my biggest asset right now."
While Mr. Casey's fight is more personal, he is not the only one hearing a call for change. Some Liberals in Nova Scotia say it feels like 1993 all over again, when voters threw out the Mulroney Tories, and a much different vibe from 2011, when Nova Scotia Liberals, who did not like their leader, Michael Ignatieff, often didn't vote.
The Liberals' confidence is bolstered by opinion polls showing their party riding high. Corporate Research Associates of Halifax released a poll in mid-September in which 66 per cent of people in the region said they are dissatisfied with the current federal government, up from 63 per cent in May, and 40 per cent are leaning Liberal.
There are 32 seats in the Atlantic, and expectations are the Liberals will add to the 12 seats they hold across the four provinces. With national polls showing such a tight race, Atlantic Canada could play a pivotal role in deciding the outcome. Tories now have 13 seats and need to hold most of them.
No surprise then that Mr. Harper has been to Cumberland-Colchester twice – once in May, before the writ drop, and again in mid-August. Laureen Harper has also been in to help Mr. Armstrong raise money.
But Mr. Casey, who is well-known and popular in the community, has had high-profile visitors, too. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau has campaigned in the riding, and earlier this month Jean Chrétien, the former Liberal prime minister, visited to support his former Commons opponent.
Standing up to Mr. Harper has helped Mr. Casey in the past. In 2008, after opposing the Harper budget, he ran as an independent, winning with 70 per cent of the vote. In 2009, however, he left the House of Commons after he was diagnosed with both malignant melanoma and prostate cancer. But he's healthy now, and ready to support Mr. Trudeau, whom he got to know and like when they sat beside each other in the chamber after the 2008 election.
Ironically, Mr. Armstrong, who had been Mr. Casey's riding president, ran several of his campaigns and later became the new Conservative MP. He was elected in a by-election in 2009 and re-elected in 2011 with 53 per cent of the vote. The Liberals came third.
"It's awkward because Bill had always been a Conservative," Mr. Armstrong said about running against his former political ally.
Although the NDP came second in the riding in the previous federal election, the fight this time is between the Liberals and Conservatives.
"It was one thing when he went independent – I supported him as did our association – [but] now he's gone to the other team and these are people who worked their hearts and souls against him for many elections," said the 49-year-old former school principal. "Now he is campaigning against all the people who worked their heart and souls [out] for him in several elections." (Mr. Casey's current campaign co-chair, Dennis James, ran against Mr. Casey in 1988 as the Liberal candidate.)
The two candidates have the same priority for the riding. If elected, both say they will focus on job creation, especially for young people, who have to leave for Halifax or the West for work.
Some residents are conflicted, however. Laura LeBlanc, who works in a Truro shop, says Mr. Casey has been around for a long time and is "tried and true." She feels change is warranted, but she also likes Mr. Armstrong and his values. "It's really hard," she said. "I don't know what to do."
Despite polls showing Mr. Casey leading, Mr. Armstrong is confident he can out-organize his Liberal opponent. He says he has so far delivered about $200-million in investment, an attractive sum for a riding that has one of the oldest demographics and lowest median incomes in the country.
"One of the things that polls don't calculate is voter turnout," he said, noting the Conservatives have won 19 of the past 20 elections. "I don't think there is probably an organization in Eastern Canada that's as efficient in getting the vote out as this one."