Olivia Chow signs a T-shirt on Friday as she launches her campaign to return to Ottawa as an NDP MP, greeting commuters in the Concord CityPlace condominium neighbourhood.Michelle Siu/The Globe and Mail
Adam Vaughan jokes it is the "tallest riding in Canada" – a wall of soaring high-rise condo towers chock-a-block along Toronto's downtown waterfront, full of 25- to 34-year-old affluent singletons who don't have kids but do have small dogs.
There are veterinary clinics aplenty – and there are about seven dogs per floor in many of the towers, says Mr. Vaughan, a self-described "stats guy" and the federal Liberal candidate for this new riding, Spadina-Fort York.
Until early last week, it looked as though the rookie Liberal MP, former Toronto city councillor and journalist was a shoo-in to win the seat in the upcoming federal election. But then along came a formidable opponent in Olivia Chow, the former NDP MP, failed Toronto mayoral candidate and Jack Layton's widow.
"Just a few weeks ago … I said, 'No, no, no, no,'" Ms. Chow recalled about being asked by the NDP leadership to run. "I am happy teaching [at Ryerson University]. I love doing what I was doing."
But she thought about all that she and her late husband had worked for. She decided she needed to "get the job done." She dismisses speculation her comeback is opportunistic, inspired by NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair's momentum and a better chance of finally having a shot at power.
Mr. Vaughan says he knew four months ago that Ms. Chow was going to run. "Olivia is terrible at keeping a secret," he said.
Their political stories are intertwined. They have known one another for years, but calling them friends would be a stretch. Ms. Chow's departure last year from the House of Commons to run for Toronto mayor triggered a by-election in her former Trinity-Spadina riding, which Mr. Vaughan then won as a Liberal.
Now they're facing off against each other, in the redistributed riding that takes in the southern portion of their old riding. Some observers are predicting this will be an epic battle between the two popular Toronto-philes over issues affecting Canada's largest city – transit, affordable housing, liveable neighbourhoods, child care and even security.
According to Statistics Canada, there are 82,480 people in the riding, with more than 30,000 between the ages of 25 and 34. Fewer than 8,000 are 19 or under; 35,700 are single, and 36,605 are living in buildings that have five or more storeys.
So this is not a traditional riding. Campaigning in a vertical neighbourhood, and trying to canvass smartphone-toting young people who don't have land lines and are rarely home anyway, is a challenge. To mix it up even more, the riding also includes the Toronto islands, which are a ferry ride from downtown.
"It's a tough riding to poll," Mr. Vaughan admitted. "I've had three cellphones in the last three years. How do you track a voter like that?"
Both politicians have their pet strategies. Mr. Vaughan said it's a "constant process of building relationships" and the trick is to be "present." He pores over lists and the results of individual polls from previous elections.
He is also counting on recreating his success from last year's by-election in which he beat the NDP's Joe Cressy and says he was able to win 70 per cent of the condo vote. In that race, he and his team went out one afternoon to Trinity Bellwoods Park, a popular spot for young condo-dwellers to congregate. His team handed out brown paper bags with the slogan "Hide your beer and not your support," and then told them how to vote in the advance poll.
"Now, Olivia is going to steal all of those ideas. You know that," Mr. Vaughan said.
Ms. Chow's trick, meanwhile, is to go to sports bars. She says she will stop by at 9 p.m. after doing a traditional canvass, because that's when condo-dwellers hit the pub for a beer and to watch the ballgame. "In between innings we go to chat with people, but only in between innings," she said, adding that now "Adam is going to learn this."
In the 2011 federal election, Ms. Chow won handily, beating her Liberal opponent by more than 20,000 votes.
"I know every corner of this riding," she said, noting that she first started representing parts of it more than 30 years ago as a school trustee.
Her No. 1 issue, she says, is a national affordable child-care program. The NDP's plan calls for a $15-a-day program. This may be a harder sell in Spadina-Fort York where there are few kids, and where some daycare centres are populated more with children from the 905 suburbs whose parents drop them off on their way to downtown jobs.
Mr. Vaughan, meanwhile, is concerned about housing and liveable downtown neighbourhoods. For example, he is advocating for the federal government to manage the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. more effectively.
"We used to make it not only possible but smart to own a home. Now it's a risk," he said.
He sees the polls, too, and knows that the slumping Liberal numbers will affect his local campaign. "Any time your party is down in the polls it costs you votes," he said, but pointedly added: "Momentum is a big thing in politics. Peaking too early is a big problem … so is the personality of the national leaders."