Youth in decline
Proportion of children 14 &
under and people aged 65 & older
in Canada
0-14
65 and older
50%
Projected
40
The share of seniors
exceeds share of
children in 2016
30
20
10
0
1851
1961
2001
2021
2061
1981
1891
1931
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: STATSCAN, 2016 CENSUS
Proportion of children 14 years & under and
people aged 65 & older in Canada
0-14
65 and older
50%
Projected
40
The share of seniors
exceeds share of
children in 2016
30
20
10
0
1851
1961
2001
2021
2061
1981
1891
1931
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: STATSCAN, 2016 CENSUS
Proportion of children 14 years & under and people aged 65 & older
in Canada
0-14
65 and older
50%
Projected
40
The share of seniors
exceeds share of
children in 2016
30
20
10
0
1851
1961
2001
2021
2061
1981
1891
1931
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: STATSCAN, 2016 CENSUS
The numbers: Atlantic Canadian provinces are bracing themselves for a wave of grey in coming years. According to 2016 census data released earlier this month, Canada has more people over 65 than it does children under the age of 14, but the age gap is even worse in provinces like Nova Scotia, where every municipality except East Hants has more seniors than children. Policies to help Nova Scotians start families, get an education and stay in the province have become priorities for all the parties in this election.
The politics: Gary Burrill's NDP is promising $15-a-day child care, free daycare for people earning less than $30,000 a year, free community college and a 10-per-cent tuition cut over four years if the New Democrats are elected. Incumbent Stephen McNeil and the Liberals say they'll institute universal full-day pre-primary care for four-year-olds, promote apprenticeship and vocational programs, overhaul school-board administration and hire more teachers. Vocational training is also a priority for Jamie Baillie's Progressive Conservatives, who promise $32-million for trades education in schools and a memorandum of understanding with universities to bring tuition fees down.
Labours lost
The numbers: Nova Scotia's unemployment rate has been persistently higher than the national average for decades, but the increasing abundance of seniors and shortage of young people are compounding the problems for the province's work force. Nova Scotia's working-age population (people aged 15 to 64) has made up an incrementally smaller share of the total in the past three censuses, and Statistics Canada blames low fertility and immigration rates and a higher volume of migration to other provinces.
The politics: Three words dominate the Liberal and NDP job-creation proposals: Immigration, innovation and infrastructure. The Liberals would seek Ottawa's help in bringing more immigrants to the province, boost spending on community infrastructure by $50-million annually and offer a range of incentives for small businesses, aquaculture and local wine and craft beer industries. The Tories want a $1-billion "Rebuild Nova Scotia Fund" to create jobs building roads and bridges. The PCs and NDP say they'd stimulate Nova Scotia's film industry by reviving the province's film tax credit, which the Liberal government eliminated two years ago in favour of a new production fund. The NDP also wants to increase minimum wage to $15 an hour over three years.
A dismal diagnosis
The numbers: Nova Scotia's aging population (are you noticing a pattern here?) is a growing challenge for the province's health-care system. Nova Scotia currently ranks dead last in Canada for its waiting times for hip- and knee-replacement surgery, according to the Canadian Institute for Health Information's latest data. Those waiting times did improve between 2012 and 2016, and the province invested an additional $1.9-million last spring to reduce the wait for orthopedic surgery. But the Progressive Conservatives and NDP say the Liberals haven't gone far enough. Mr. McNeil has also been dogged on the campaign trail by doctors complaining of physician shortages and fears of a hospital closing in Cape Breton.
The politics: Mr. McNeil has defended his party's track record on health care, saying a Liberal government would bring waiting times for hip and knee surgery down, spend $34-million on new "collaborative care" clinics and give doctors more flexibility to choose where they practise. The NDP is offering $120-million on primary care and new doctors, and will reverse an $8-million cut to nursing homes. The Progressive Conservatives, who want $13.5-million to hire more doctors, are focusing their health platform on mental health, pledging to create new crisis centres, expand care in schools and offer a tax rebate for patients with psychiatric therapy dogs.
The bottom line
The numbers: Mr. McNeil and the Liberals came to power four years ago with a message of balanced budgets after the previous NDP government struggled to get deficits under control in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Nova Scotia's economy has seen modest growth in the past few years, and with the province back in the black, the parties have sharply differing opinions about whether to stay the course or invest while times are relatively good.
The politics: Both the Liberals and Tories promise balanced budgets and lower taxes if elected. But the NDP, citing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's deficit spending as their inspiration, say they're planning on $966-million in deficits over four years. They're also emulating Mr. Trudeau's tax-the-rich policies, promising a new 24-per-cent tax bracket for Nova Scotians earning more than $250,000 a year (the current rate is 21 per cent for earners above $150,000).
The magic number
The numbers: Historically, second acts are rare in Nova Scotia politics: There haven't been back-to-back majority governments in the province since the Tories' 1988 victory, and even then it was something of a Pyrrhic majority – 14 seats lost to the Liberals, who won the next time around. More typically, government will cycle between one of the three main parties, and the one that hopes to govern will need 26 of 51 seats to form a majority.
The politics: A Mainstreet/iPolitics poll from a week before Election Day showed the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives in a tightening horse race, but by Sunday the Liberals had won back their early lead. Some of the races in seat-rich Halifax could be close.
Election Day basics
Party platforms: Here are the full platforms for the Liberals, Progressive Conservatives and NDP.
How to vote: Find out more from Elections Nova Scotia's website about local candidates, polling stations and voting information. Polls open at 8 a.m. (AT) on May 30 and close at 8 p.m.
With reports from Jeremy Agius and The Canadian Press
ATLANTIC CANADA: MORE FROM THE GLOBE AND MAIL
