The South China Sea, constantly simmering with various maritime boundary disputes, appears to be on the boil yet again.
China is busy dredging up the seabed and spraying sand onto shoals and reefs in order to literally build islands – roughly 809 hectares over the past 18 months – in disputed waters that lie within its controversially expansive "nine-dashed line" claim. This enables it to place military installations and airstrips hundreds of kilometres from its southern shoreline, as well as lay claim to mineral riches. And it angers weaker, Southeast Asian countries bordering this vast body of water – which lies east of Vietnam; west of the Philippines; north of Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei; and south of China.
More importantly, though, China's actions have begun to irk the United States, and come as Washington attempts to orchestrate a pivot toward the Pacific – and away from its military quagmires elsewhere – without looking weak, or totally alienating China. The U.S. military recently flew a surveillance plane near one of the islands with a CNN crew on board, who recorded this ominous, crackling warning: "This is the Chinese navy. Please go away quickly." It was a bold, drive-by stunt to project U.S. military presence in the face of Chinese intransigence, but prompts an obvious question: Where exactly is all this leading?
The geopolitical drama unfolding along the Pacific Rim, in many ways, represents a crucial microcosm of the complex, regional difficulties presented by the economic and military rise of China. But even though China's land-reclamation projects have certainly heightened tensions in the region, and may lead to future incidents, they are unlikely to lead to any outright clash between Beijing and a neighbouring country, or, most frighteningly, with the U.S. The whole operation is simply one part of a longer-term, and likely inexorable, regional power shift as a more dominant China seeks to flex military muscle in its own backyard.
As the crisis in eastern Ukraine makes clear, there are limits to how Western democracies may confront aggressive powers in the modern era, particularly when these countries feel threatened – as China continues to be, by U.S. pursuit of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, and U.S. diplomacy with regional allies such as South Korea and Japan, as well as countries in Southeast Asia that fear China's lengthening shadow. Whether these territorial or maritime claims are legitimate, or not (and many experts think China's maritime claims are bogus), is beside the point because China continues to insist that it negotiate on a bilateral basis – outside of institutions, such as the International Court of Justice, which has previously ruled on maritime disputes in Southeast Asia and beyond.
At the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore last weekend, top officials offered a glimpse at the current state of strategic posturing. Speeches from the U.S. and China, in particular, illustrated the vast gulf between the two great powers, which are both trying to shape the region for their own benefit.
U.S. Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter spoke of a regional security architecture that "must respect rights, not just might" – one in which all nations could benefit from Asia's dynamic economic growth. He mentioned U.S. military co-operation with Australia and other Southeast Asian countries, and noted U.S. security pacts guarantee stability, such as on the Korean peninsula, but that China's activities in the South China Sea were now undermining the status quo.
"It is unclear how much farther China will go," Mr. Carter said. "The United States is deeply concerned about the pace and scope of land reclamation … as well as the potential for these activities to increase the risk of miscalculation or conflict."
The U.S., he added, was a Pacific nation with "every right to be involved" in the region's affairs. But though his speech was well received, one got the sense that the U.S. was trying to hold back the inevitable tide of Chinese power washing over the area.
And the speech from Chinese Admiral Sun Jianguo seemed to confirm that. Adm. Sun referred to the new artificial islands as "construction projects" that "are legitimate, justified and reasonable." These islands, of course, allow Chinese ships to refuel and Chinese jets to land – part of what many fear is an extension of Chinese military control in the contested area. The Chinese admiral, though, was confident and strident as he outlined China's position, repeating China's stance on maritime boundaries and giving no hint of any concession.
It's clear China will continue its controversial efforts, and might even declare an "air defence identification zone" as it did over disputed islands in the East China Sea. It's also certain the U.S. will continue to oppose aggressive moves in the South China Sea. Both sides know the stakes are too high for anything other than showy antics and lofty declarations. But lacking any meaningful alternative, there is little the U.S. can do as a newly confident China asserts power farther from its shores.