Courtenay-Comox not used to spotlight

Heather Oliver cuts hair at a barber shop just outside the gate of Canadian Forces Base Comox. The military facility, here on the eastern edge of Vancouver Island, is in a provincial election riding that was decided by a mere nine votes and denied the BC Liberals their fifth consecutive majority.

But that could change. Liberal candidate Jim Benninger, the base's former commander, has asked for a recount. And Ms. Oliver said she and those who've come into the barber shop in recent days have a hunch how the situation will play out once all of the votes, including absentee ballots, have been tabulated.

"People think he'll come out on top," she said.

Courtenay-Comox, though not a high-profile riding during the campaign, now has the eyes of an entire province upon it. If the district stays with the NDP, the Liberals will likely be in a minority-government position and be forced to court the Greens – or to watch the Greens join forces with the NDP. But if the riding flips to the Liberals, Christy Clark could have a majority, albeit just barely. There are other close ridings where absentee ballots could be a factor, but none of them are nearly as close as Courtenay-Comox.

The tight result in Courtenay-Comox highlights themes that have emerged across the province since the election, including the deep divisions among the electorate and vote splitting – though the latter had an added wrinkle here. This riding had the highest show of support for any of the 10 BC Conservative candidates, presumably pulling votes from the Liberals' right flank in the same manner the Green Party pulled from the NDP's left.

The riding was one of only a few in which four candidates each had at least 7 per cent of the vote. Ronna-Rae Leonard of the NDP won with 37.15 per cent, while Mr. Benninger had 37.11 per cent. Ernie Sellentin of the Greens picked up 18.13 per cent of the vote, while Leah McCulloch of the Conservatives – who said a minority government was the exact outcome she had hoped for – had 7.61 per cent.

The election issues in Courtenay-Comox will not be unfamiliar to the rest of the province: jobs, housing affordability, the environment and health care, particularly involving seniors. Both Courtenay and Comox have a higher percentage of residents 65 and older than the provincial average.

Outside Courtenay's public library, Chip Wilson (he stressed he was not the billionaire) said he voted for the Liberals because of their focus on jobs and balanced budgets. He said he did not expect the vote to be as close as it was.

"It turned out to be exciting," he said.

Other residents were less willing to disclose how they voted. But Kim Bourgeois and Sarah Countess both cited the environment as the most important election issue. Mr. Bourgeois also expressed surprise at the result, as well as the sudden attention on the riding.

"Nine votes. That's amazing," Mr. Bourgeois said.

Larry Jangula, Courtenay's mayor, said many of the people he's spoken with expect the final count to flip the riding back to the Liberals. The district – which, like others, had its boundaries reconfigured in this election – had been held by the Liberals since 2001.

Don McRae, who won the riding in 2009 and 2013, did not seek re-election.

Mr. Jangula, who supports the Liberals, said Courtenay's economy is a "mixed bag" at the moment. He said CFB Comox provides stability and the construction sector has been robust, with homes and lots selling quickly. The regional airport has also played an important role, he said, and a charter flight had been taking workers to Fort McMurray, Alta., once a week before that province's economy soured.

Courtenay's resource sector, Mr. Jangula said, has also seen busts over the years, with the shuttering of one lumber mill within town and another in nearby Campbell River.

A United Steelworkers official said the union has between 100 and 150 members in the Comox Valley, a number that has declined because of the forestry sector's struggles. The official noted, however, that the union does still have several hundred members in Campbell River.

The military base is the Comox Valley's largest employer, outpacing the school district, hospital and Mount Washington ski resort, respectively. Mr. Jangula said many of those who typically would have worked in the fishing or logging sector now instead have retail jobs that don't pay as much – three of the valley's top 10 employers are large stores.

The final vote result for Courtenay-Comox is not expected until later this month, a situation Mr. Benninger, the Liberal candidate, likened to "handing in your exam and not getting your mark back for two weeks."

Standing outside his campaign office, where he and his team were packing up signs and equipment, Mr. Benninger said the riding has a unique mix of people, including a large rural and agricultural component.

He said he's optimistic about the recount and has heard there were about 1,500 absentee ballots in the riding in total. But he was less confident about the impact the base would have on the result.

"I believe that there's somewhere in the neighbourhood of 40 to 60 personnel deployed outside of B.C. and around the world in support of Canadian Forces operations. And those folks are away from anywhere to a month to seven or eight months, so their priority is to make sure their family is looked after and all their personal affairs are set before they go," he said.

]Mr. Benninger said only "a handful" might have had time to fill out absentee ballots.

The NDP had a slight advantage in absentee ballots in the riding in 2013, when Mr. McRae won by between 5 per cent and 6 per cent of the vote.

Mr. Benninger said the riding's 2017 result would have been far different if the Conservatives – who challenged the Liberals in provincewide public-opinion polls four years ago before floundering – had not run a candidate.

"Conservatives are part of our coalition but for one reason or another they have decided they want to break off the coalition and stand on their own.… We know that the only time that the NDP gets elected is when they split the vote on the right," he said.

The Conservative, Ms. McCulloch, said in an interview at her campaign office, just down the street from Mr. Benninger's, that said she chose to run because she believed the BC Liberals were representing their donors instead of the public. She ran on a platform of accountability and also vowed to be a strong advocate for seniors.

Ms. McCulloch said she was stunned by the personal attacks she endured during the campaign, including false suggestions she was "an NDP plant."

She said she focused on winning the riding, but was pleased with the result across the province – at least as it sits at the moment.

"What I hoped for was a minority government so that … the Liberal government was held accountable to the people of this province," she said.

"So what I actually hoped for is actually what we got, which is a minority Liberal government that is accountable to the Greens. How sweet is that?"

Ms. Leonard, of the NDP, said in an interview that it does seem as though all of B.C. is suddenly watching Courtenay-Comox.

She said she's been busy the past few days thanking volunteers and does not feel especially nervous leading up to the recount.

"It's still all up in the air and there's nothing that anybody can do except wait for the outcome," she said.