Premier Rachel Notley will talk about how oil prices have stayed low and how the Canadian dollar has, too, which is why Alberta will be staring at a budget with a record deficit.JASON FRANSON/The Globe and Mail
Nine months in power, and Alberta's NDP government has done a little of this, a little of that. But after a week of heightened trends, media squabbles and a lawsuit headed their way, things are about to get more interesting.
Come later this month, or during the first week of March, Premier Rachel Notley will talk about how oil prices have stayed low and how the Canadian dollar has, too, which is why Alberta will be staring at a budget with a record deficit. That is the assurance. The uncertainty is just how big that number will be.
The original estimate was a $6-billion loss. Others say that is not going to happen: It is going to be worse.
Duane Bratt, a professor and the chair of Mount Royal University's Department of Policy Studies, put the deficit number between $7-billion and $8-billion. He was told he was off the mark.
"A couple of economists I know and trust told me it will be $10-billion to $12-billion," Prof. Bratt said of the budget's upward trending. "It's not going to be good."
And now, moving from the money to the media, the Notley government has opened up a debate on who is actually a journalist.
The NDP has set aside time for a review of the province's media policy after members of the right-wing news organization The Rebel were denied entry to recent government events – including a news conference after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's visit with Ms. Notley – because the NDP did not consider the online news outlet a "journalistic source."
Former Sun Media columnist Ezra Levant is The Rebel's founding firecracker. He has called Ms. Notley and the NDP "a government that bullies people."
The Rebel and Mr. Levant were not allowed to sit in the legislature's press gallery either. That was initially reported as a rebuke. It was not. The press gallery selects its own members; the government provides a security pass for reporters. To be a member, journalists need only to sign up. The Rebel never did.
Before he showed up and was turned away, Mr. Levant had filed a lawsuit against the Alberta government. The lawyer for The Rebel promised to drop all legal action if the province allowed its reporters "access in the future." The government did not agree to that.
After being elected with a healthy margin, the NDP looked strong as the history-making government that ended the Conservatives' 40-plus years in office. It used its new faces and new attitude to assert that, even in bad times, it was good to be an Albertan. Ms. Notley underlined that point with a royalty review and a tax hike that did not damage oil and gas companies. (The Premier is going to need all the good will she can muster when the record budget deficit is announced.)
The government admitted on Wednesday that it had made a mistake on the media issue, and the Premier's office appointed Heather Boyd, former Western Canadian bureau chief for The Canadian Press, to produce recommendations for a new media policy. No one will be barred from covering government events while Ms. Boyd does her work.
"The thing the NDPs have found themselves caught in is that it's less about them and more about this changing society," said Corey Hogan, a Calgary-based strategist, analyst and Web designer. "What is media? [Is] everyone who shows up granted credentials? Ezra [Levant] is a great example, because he's symptomatic of that whole blurriness that entertainment can do."
From his vantage as vice-president of the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, Robert Murray said The Rebel is not all bad. It has helped show that the NDP has changed since it was elected.
"There seems to be a growing sense that the government, particularly the Premier's Office, is having trouble communicating effectively with both the media and the public," Mr. Murray said. "We know from the [Alison] Redford era, it is essential for a Premier's Office to maintain good relations with the media, as they are the key conduit through which the public learns what a government is doing.
"It is surprising that these discussions are taking place this soon into a government's mandate," Mr. Murray added.
Equally surprising was how quickly the NDP moved to correct its "journalistic source" remark. Proof indeed that things are about to get even more interesting.