Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley arrives at a campaign stop in Calgary on Wednesday.Larry MacDougal/The Canadian Press
Of all the opinion polls being conducted as Albertans prepare to vote, Jim Prentice has concerned himself with only one: Election Day.
For the Progressive Conservative Leader, who called for this election early last month, ignoring the prevote canvassing may be a matter of self-preservation. On Thursday, there was a pile-up of polls, one after another, all leading to the same conclusion – that the Tories need a spirited comeback because the New Democrats are not going away quietly. They are more than just putting up a fight; they might even win the May 5 election.
A CBC poll, conducted by Return On Insight, showed the NDP's Rachel Notley with 38 per cent of the decided vote provincewide. The Tories came second at 24 per cent, with Wildrose in third at 21 per cent.
Leger's poll for the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal asked Albertans which party leader would make for the best premier. Ms. Notley came in first with 28 per cent, thanks largely to her strong hold on Edmonton. Mr. Prentice was second at 24 per cent, due to his popularity in Calgary. Four months ago, Mr. Prentice's approval rating was at 50 per cent.
A Global News poll conducted by Ipsos Reid followed up with the NDP winning the election. Respondents were asked who they would pick if the election were held tomorrow; 37 per cent said the NDP. Wildrose had 26 per cent and the PCs had 24.
The Ipsos Reid poll showed there were people who said they had selected a party to vote for, but could still switch allegiances at the last moment. ROI pegged the crucial undecided at 26 per cent of the Albertans they questioned.
All the polls came with a plus/minus margin of error 19 out of 20 times, which is to say nothing yet has been etched in stone. As the PCs can attest, polls are not above getting it wrong. For example, it has been suggested the NDP's power base in Edmonton has skewed the party's overall number, making it seem as if this race for top place is essentially over. Anyone thinking that should remember what happened in 2012.
In a pre-election poll, PC leader Alison Redford had 36 per cent of the voters and trailed the Wildrose and their hefty 43 per cent. The end result was a majority government for the Tories and a humbling disappointment for the Wildrose faithful.
With his party warding off challenges from all sides, Mr. Prentice is still paying for telling Albertans that, if they wanted to know why their province was in such a financial mess, all they had to do was, "look in the mirror." That stinging rebuke came before the PCs presented a new budget, one that called for a tax increase for families making $120,000 or more, but no such increase for corporations, big or small.
Ms. Notley took advantage of Mr. Prentice's plight with a polished showing at the televised leaders debate. She handled the questions and issues so well that days later, Mr. Prentice turned on the attack, saying he couldn't see Alberta as an NDP province. He went from that to finally acknowledging "clearly there is support in some parts of the province for the NDP." He then stated the choice confronting Albertans is "an NDP government or an NDP coalition or it's what I'm talking about …"
What Mr. Prentice wants is another PC majority to extend the party's nearly 44-year hold on the province. Even without peeking at the polls, he has to know the odds of that happening are not in his favour.
Mainstreet Technologies released its last Alberta election poll results Friday and, like the others, has the NDP scoring big with 44 per cent of the 3,143 decided voters interviewed. Wildrose was next with 22 per cent with the PCs third at 21 per cent.
The Mainstreet poll showed the NDP as the top vote getter in Edmonton (73 per cent), Calgary (35 per cent) and outside the two cities (39 per cent).