Illustration by Pearl Shen
In late 2021, a Patek Philippe Nautilus watch with a dial stamped by Tiffany & Co. sold at auction for more than US$6-million, over 100 times its US$52,000 retail price. Seven-figure results aren’t unusual for Patek Philippe models at auction, but such prices are usually reserved for pieces with ultra-complicated movements and ornately handworked details, not time-and-date steel sports watches.
As one of just 170 Nautilus models with a dial in Tiffany’s hallmark blue (and one of the last steel Nautiluses ever made), the watch was certainly rare and collectible, but three years later it stands out as a cautionary tale about the perils of investing in the watch market. In late 2024, a dozen similar Patek Philippe Nautilus models are listed for as low as US$1.5 million on the resale market. This is still a remarkable amount of money for a relatively simple timepiece, but it represents a 75-per-cent drop in value from the watch’s much-hyped 2021 peak.
Patek Philippe NautilusSupplied
The lesson here is one that any prospective luxury watch collector would be wise to heed: a watch, like any other asset, is only worth as much as a buyer is willing to pay.
“Hype certainly inflates market value, making some of these pieces extremely hard to justify when you know what they retail for. On the other hand, since the opportunity to purchase pieces like [the Nautilus] at retail is limited to a very small list of top-tier clients, the retail price is irrelevant,” says Verne Ho, a Toronto-based creative director and watch collector who goes by @watchstudies on Instagram. “That being said, assuming the collectors are acquiring the pieces out of pure love and appreciation for them, it’s hard for anyone but themselves to decide whether a price is worth it or not.”
Guido Terreni, CEO of the Swiss watchmaker Parmigiani Fleurier, shares this sentiment. Founded in 1996 by master watchmaker and restorer Michel Parmigiani, Parmigiani Fleurier’s watches are known for their exceptional craftsmanship, distinctive looks and prices that stretch well into six figures. According to Terreni, the collectors who buy his watches are looking for more than a monetary return. “We don’t create timepieces to generate investments,” he says. “We create them to offer a private and refined luxury to our clients, hopefully for the longest period possible.”
Tonda PFSupplied
According to a report by Grand View Research, the global preowned luxury watch market was worth US$24.38 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow steadily by almost 10 per cent each year for the rest of the decade. Limited-production models from heavyweights such as Rolex, Richard Mille and Audemars Piguet continue to sell far above their retail values, while an explosion of interest in such vintage pieces as the Cartier Crash and Piaget Polo has made these models’ values soar. Coupled with the excitement generated by headline-grabbing auction results and social media influencers who post their latest rare finds online, it’s not hard to get excited about the idea of selling a luxury watch for more than you paid for it.
Making a profit selling a watch, however, is more complicated than it might seem. For one thing, the vast majority of new watches will lose much of their value as soon as they leave the store. For another, preowned watch prices – even for grails like the Rolex Daytona and Patek Philippe Nautilus – have been in steady decline for the last two years. This makes investing in a watch, whether you’re spending millions at auction or a few thousand at your local authorized dealer, a risky proposition, especially if you’re interested in a quick return. “I don’t think they’re generally good investments for financial returns,” says Ho. “Certain watches could yield profitable returns, but even the iconic brands that seemingly have “guaranteed returns” have shown that they’re not invincible to market fluctuations lately.”
As with any other kind of asset, investing successfully in watches requires knowledge, timing and luck. Having a coveted model from a respected brand is a good start, but other factors including condition, rarity and hype – the ultimate wildcard – can make the difference between a profit and a loss. Flipping a luxury watch you have purchased at retail (as the actor Sylvester Stallone did with an ultra-rare factory-sealed Patek Philippe Grandmaster Chime earlier this year) is another option, but this route comes with its own risks. Stallone made an estimated US$2-million on the US$5.4-million sale, but following a stern rebuke from Patek Philippe’s president, it’s unlikely he’ll have access to the brand’s most exclusive pieces in future. “For the everyday enthusiast, I think they’re probably better off collecting for personal reasons,” advises Ho. “Watches are far more likely to have sentimental returns than financial ones.”
Terreni is equally circumspect. “There are many ways to make money in life [and] watches is surely not the easiest,” he says. Between the vagaries of the watch market and the fact that high-end pieces lose a significant amount of value once they’ve been worn, Terreni agrees that thinking about your watches purely in terms of their monetary value tends to take the joy out of the ownership experience. “It’s hard for me to relate to customers that don’t enjoy the pleasure of wearing our creations,” Terreni says. “In this regard, I once met a customer that buys his watches in pairs, to enjoy both [aspects], but I think this is really an exceptional case.”