President Joe Biden, left, speaks in Wilmington, N.C. on May 2. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Waukesha, Wis., on May 1.Alex Brandon/The Associated Press
As retirees reach advanced ages, the chances of death or life-threatening illness become progressively greater. The same is true for U.S. presidential candidates. The chart below shows the odds of Joe Biden and Donald Trump surviving until various key dates. It assumes both are average risks for their age.
By the end of the next presidential term, the survival rate for both is hovering around 55 per cent to 65 per cent. In this context, “survival” means not only avoiding death but also life-threatening cancer, acute myocardial infarction, stroke and Alzheimer’s.
The mortality rates used to produce this chart are taken from the Society of Actuaries as they apply to white-collar males in the United States. While morbidity rates came from Canadian sources, they appear to offer the best data available for this comparison. If anything, World Health Organization and Globocan (Global Cancer Observatory) show that the incidence of cancer, heart attack and Alzheimer’s are slightly lower in Canada than in the U.S.
Frederick Vettese is former chief actuary of Morneau Shepell and author of the PERC retirement calculator (perc-pro.ca)