People walk past a mural by Murwalls of Taylor Swift outside the Phoenix Hotel, ahead of the star's Eras tour in Liverpool, Britain, May 30, 2024.Phil Noble/Reuters
Europe’s summer of Taylor Swift megaconcerts and Olympic Games holds a counterintuitive lesson for Swifties, sport fans and travellers at large: Booking your accommodations months in advance doesn’t always guarantee the lowest rates.
In fact, sometimes reserving hotel rooms or short-term rentals far ahead of mass events can cost significantly more, according to data collected in the lead-up to the Paris Olympics and some of Ms. Swift’s Eras Tour European concert dates.
The average of the lowest bookable rates for Paris hotel rooms during each day of the Olympics reached a high of nearly $780 a night 11 months ahead of the Games, but was less than $432 a night two weeks before, according to data gathered by Lighthouse Intelligence, a hospitality industry analytics company. Short-term-rental rates showed a similar downward-sloping trend approaching Ms. Swift’s performances in Liverpool, U.K., in mid-June, according to market research firm AirDNA.
The take-away for consumers? Choose refundable rates and be ready to revise your booking as your departure date nears, said Canadian personal finance and travel expert Barry Choi.
It’s a tip that may come in handy for the hundreds of thousands of fans who are expected to swarm to Ms. Swift’s long-awaited Canadian tour dates, as the Eras Tour lands in Toronto in November and finally winds down in Vancouver in December.
In Paris, hotel rates climbed up rapidly until just under a year ahead of the Games. They held at those exceptionally high levels until roughly six months before and then performed a gradual descent, the Lighthouse data show.
The pattern is unusual, as prices often climb in the run-up to sought-after events that drive up occupancy, said Blake Reiter, director of hospitality research at Lighthouse. But the phenomenon is not unprecedented, he added.
Hotel rates also dropped close to the London Olympics of 2012, a baffling trend that inspired the founders of Lighthouse to launch the market analytics firm (previously called OTA Insight), Mr. Reiter said.
While hotels increased room rates months ahead of the Games, they likely were forced to lower them later on to boost occupancy as some rooms remained vacant, Mr. Reiter said.
In Paris, the supply of short-term rentals, which soared in the past year, may have also played a role, he added.
“I do think that probably had a deflationary impact on pricing in the Olympic hotels,” he said.
AirDNA’s analysis of a sample of European Eras Tour dates shows that, in Liverpool, a similar phenomenon occurred: rates peaked at just under $260 a night around nine months before Ms. Taylor jetted to the British city. But just a week ahead of the concerts, they had declined to $234.
On the other hand, in Warsaw, Poland, last-minute bookings were 40 per cent more expensive compared to 11 months earlier, as prices climbed steadily closer to the show dates.
“An important thing to notice is that, historically, the rate behaviour does not follow a single pattern,” said Bram Gallagher, director of economics and forecasting at AirDNA.
Short-term rental bookings in Toronto and Vancouver ahead of the Canadian Eras Tour dates show a similarly puzzling divergence, with average rates sloping upward in the first city and staying relatively flat so far in the latter, the company’s data show.
To hedge against the uncertainty of where prices might be headed, Mr. Choi’s advice to Swifties and globe-trotters in general is to book a fully refundable hotel rate well in advance and check back later.
The ability to cancel a hotel reservation at no cost often means you’ll have to pay a small premium if you do use your booking. But the flexibility is often worth it, he said.
At large hotel chains, Mr. Choi said he has often been able to rebook the same room at a lower rate as his travel dates approached.
However, he cautioned against deploying the same strategy with short-term rentals.
“If you’re booking an Airbnb or vacation home, the owner could cancel your reservation at their own will,” he said.
If rates climb closer to a coveted event, the move allows the landlord to free up the unit and jack up the price, Mr. Choi said, while the early-booking guests may find themselves without a place to stay.
With a hotel, he said, “You’ve got something locked in.”
