A real estate sign in Vancouver on June 12, 2018.JONATHAN HAYWARD/The Canadian Press
If you’re a home buyer on the sidelines, take note: we’re about to reach that sought-after period when you can purchase a house in a slower, cheaper market where mortgage rates are at a level you can stomach.
Mortgage brokers, realtors and other experts say it is difficult to predict when that moment might come, but it may be in the late fall or early winter if interest rates keep falling consistently. Canadians are still struggling with the impact of inflation and the economy is uncertain, which has prevented the housing market from being whipped into a frenzy by the Bank of Canada’s rate-cutting cycle.
That cutting cycle, which began in the spring, continued last week when the central bank dropped its headline rate by another 25 basis points to 4.25 per cent – a total of 75 basis points down from its most recent peak. Most experts believe more cuts are coming in late 2024 and early 2025. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)
The bank’s historic period of rate hikes over the past couple of years had the desired impact of slowing Canada’s housing market and pushing down real estate prices in some major markets. Calculations done by NerdWallet for The Globe and Mail show that the average down payment required to purchase a home in Canada has dropped consistently in the past few years.
In August, the national average down payment required was $41,732 for a home priced at nearly $670,000. The amount of the average down payment needed has consistently been dropping since reaching its peak of $45,396 in 2022, and is at its lowest since 2020.
But Canadians haven’t found it much easier to enter the market, as sky-high interest rates mean many would-be buyers have difficulties passing the government’s mortgage stress test.
Today, real estate prices are still wildly higher than they were prepandemic, but with their recent declines experts say the ideal time for buyers to come off the sidelines is nearing.
NerdWallet spokesperson Clay Jarvis said he believes interest rates will drop more before housing markets pick up, especially with household debt continuing to rise.
“I just don’t think things are really aligning for the market to be all that appealing for people right now and there’s a lot of uncertainty around the economy,” Mr. Jarvis said.
“I think fixed rate mortgages would have to drop by another 50 to 75 basis points and variables would have to drop at least another full per cent before people will be able to pass the stress test.”
John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty in Toronto, said the market is probably poised to pick up in the spring, as long as rates continue dropping by at least another percentage point and the economy doesn’t fall into a recession.
However, he said inquiries are beginning to pour in from buyers who are ready to start their search.
Ron Butler of Toronto-based Butler Mortgage said six of the major mortgage providers he has spoken to recently told him that preapproval requests are also on the rise after six months of being “dead as a doorknob.”
He said the sale of large homes was particularly hurt by interest rate increases, and expects demand for them to pick up in the coming months. The condo market, however, is struggling immensely and he doesn’t see that market picking up soon.
Mr. Jarvis said anyone expecting to purchase in the next few months should get a mortgage preapproval now so they know where they stand and are ready to act fast.
Realosophy’s Mr. Pasalis said buyers often make the mistake of waiting for the lowest interest rates to be able to afford the most mortgage when they eventually purchase a home, but that isn’t always in their best interest.
Taking a slightly higher interest rate and purchasing in autumn or winter could be worth it to get the home of your choice.
“Right now you’re dating the interest rate but you’re marrying your home,” said Mr. Pasalis, who said securing your dream home could prove to be challenging if the market returns to full swing and people are trying to outbid each other.
